Thread: Expected Value.
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Old 04-28-2006, 10:10 AM   #2 (permalink)
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Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Formerly, Chateau d'If. Now, at large in California...last seen in Fresno, propping 2/2 NL...
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It's my understanding that the (-.14) is average profit with that hand in that situation (by the players on PokerRoom in the aggregate), as measured in big bets.

In other words, if you're playing a $2/4 game, you can expect to have a net profit (loss) of ($0.56) each time you play that hand in that position (-.14 * $4 = a loss of $.56), if you're an average player on PokerRoom. Of course, if you're better than average, you might have a lower loss with it. If you're less talented, you can expect to lose more.

The problem with 33 in the small blind is

1) you're out of position; that is, you're first to act pre-flop.

2) there's a 99.9% chance you'll see overcards on the flop (the only time you won't is when the flop is all 2s and 3s), so you're usually in a tough spot post-flop.

3) the only time you're confident is when you hit your set (another 3) on the flop, and that only happens 11.8% of the time (1 time in 8+ times).

Bottom line, you usually end up folding that hand post-flop, so by putting more money in the pot, you're usually losing it.

Couple of other things to note:

The total average on PokerRoom for 33 is -0.07 (regardless of table limit, position and number of players).

The PokerRoom stats are for limit play only. In contract, I've had good luck with 33 in a NL game where the implied odds are much higher. For example, if I'm in position with 33 and there is an early pre-flop raiser with a caller or two, I might call with 33 knowing that if I hit my set, there's a very good shot I'll get paid 8x on the bet based on what's in the pot and my opponents propensity to keep going if he's got a big pocket pair or he makes his hand (e.g. he's holding AK and flops an A). You have to pick your spots, though. As I pointed out above, most times you're tossing it post-flop.

Keep digging.

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