Things it took me a while to learn P.21 Catching bluffs from weak players
The title of this entry into the series must seem odd at first glance. Since when do weak players do all that much bluffing? You’re right to think that they don’t however amongst weak players (particularly live as there are fewer and fewer weak
ones online) there is a tendency towards what I call ‘desperation bluffing’. These are bluffs where they’ve gotten to the river without any real plan for the hand, and now have a holding with zero showdown value so they attempt a bluff because
they’re out of options. Although most of these players do tend to be weak and passive throughout the hand, they are often willing to attempt one street bluffs, especially if it’s the only way they can win the hand. Let’s take at a couple of ...
Excellent post. I especially liked your description of bluffs by player who are too weak to value bet, because this is a tendency I've noticed quite often and I'm happy to see that it's something others are noticing as well. Another interesting bet I've been observing that heavily relates to your examples is when a weak player like the latter one you described makes a large bet (usually pot sized, sometimes even larger) with the hand that turns out to actually have quite a bit of showdown value but simply wouldn't work as a value bet with current board or previous action. This usually strikes me as a bet made when a player has no idea whether or not he wants a call and bets out of a lack of better options. Kind of like how in your last example the player had a pair on the flop, but it's usually something more like a big bet with pocket tens on a board of AKKQ9 or a bet into 3 opponents with a red A-6 on a AKQT9 with four spades, and having been raised on some earlier point in the hand.
Have you noticed any bets of this nature (obviously not by skilled opponents you have a history with v-betting thin)? I find it to be an extension of the weak bluffs you were talking about, but only they can't even really be considered bluffs.
Example 2 is spot on, I just had a very similar experience 2 weeks ago playing live in a 5-10 game. My opponent bet around 40% of the pot on the river and I called with 7's. Exactly for the same reason as you stated, he was a very loose/weak player and I just didnt think he could make a value bet at that point after just check/calling on the flop.