EV tool help

[billythekid]

I was reading a post on twoplustwo that mentioned a tool you have to calc the EV when you have close decisions. The example you gave on twoplustwo was pretty cool. I've been looking around your site and can't find it. Where is it? I see something called the evaluator tool under your tools menu. Not sure if that is it, and I'm having a hard time understanding how it works. Can someone help me.

[Spicoli]

Sure.

The tool you're looking for can be found here...

http://www.tworags.com/?ACTION=odds

There's a couple of calculators on the page; the one you want is at the bottom. Try clicking on the green HELP button, there's a detailed description of how it works, with examples given. Without going into the same detail we go into there, it works like this:

You input your hand;

You input the amounts in the pot and the amount of your call; and

You input a couple of hands you think you're opponent might be holding with a rough guess at the probability he's holding that hand...for example, if you think there's a 50% chance he's holding a set, 20% chance he's holding top pair, top kicker or 30% chance he's just donking off chips, you'd input the hands and the percentages in the box to the right.

When you click CALC, the calculator will calculate your EV of the hand.

Again, read the HELP page and play around with the calculator. You'll figure out how it works pretty quickly. If you don't, post again and I'll help you out.

J

[billythekid]

Jeff, I looked it over a bit, but still not sure how it works. Say I have the following situation. I have KQs. I'm heads up and the board is AQJ5 with two of my suit. The pot is 2k and my opponent bet 3k which is exactly what I have left. I'm pretty sure he has a hand, probably at least top pair, but have a great draw and can beat a draw or bluff. What do I do?

[EdmondDantes]

btk,

Here's what you do. Fire up the EValuator tool here...

http://www.tworags.com/index.php?ACTION=odds

Hard to say what his hand range is without knowing any of the action to this point, but I think it's safe to assume he's got one of the following hands given his willingness to push that much dough in your face:

TPTK...say Ad Ks
a set...maybe JJ
a made straight...maybe KT
2 pair...maybe AQ
a lower flush draw...T9s
or a bluff

Of the bunch, you're only in good shape against the last two, but based on the money in pot, it still might make sense to call that big bet since there is a shot you spike a T to make a straight or a spade to make the nut flush.

To use the EValuator, input the amount in the pot (5000), the amount of your call (3000), your hand KQs, and the board, in this case, As Qh Jc 5s.

Then input five of the above hands and a guess at the probability he's holding it. I used...

Ad Ks...20%
Jd Jh...20%
Kd Th...20%
Ad Qd...20%
Ts 9s...20%

You might feel the percentages should be different based on the betting thus far; I chose these for the sake of example. In my experience, you could see someone push with any of these hands.

Then hit the CALC button. It'll return a calculation of the net expected value; if it's positive, you should call. If it's negative, you should lay the hand down. Given the info above, it's positive $36 in this case, but that's not a lot based on the size of the pot and it will vary depending on the percentages you apply.

If you'd like to re-run the calculation with different hands or probabilities, click the Run Again button. Play around with a couple of scenarios, but think back on the pre-flop, flop and turn action to narrow the hands down.

To answer you're question, I'd probably lay the hand down unless I had a great read on the pusher as a guy who could push a flush draw with one card to come. They're out there, but the guys who can push a set, a made straight or two pair to scare off a big flush draw are more plentiful. Note that if you reduce the probability you put on the T9s hand to 10% and increase one of the others, your EV drops about 500 bucks. I say save the chips and wait for a better spot.

Hope this helps.

Ed

[Spicoli]

Exactly.

[lakong]

Based on Ed's analysis, I'm not sure if I would advocate folding here. You're basically at a break-even situation assuming you agree with the hand ranges and %'s. If you do, then I would say that the determining factor would be the ratio of your remaining stack to the blinds. Assuming it's early in the tournament and the blinds were low relative to your remaining stack -- say in the 20x range, then it might not be time to put your tournament life on the line for a break-even proposition. However, if the blinds were high relative to your stack, say 10x or less, than this might be your best chance to double up. You might be forced to play for your entire stack with a much less favorable situation down the road. So it's not just the EV analysis of this hand. It's also where you stand relative to the blinds.

[EdmondDantes]

BTK,

Thought this was a cash game. Is this a tourney situation or a side game?

Ed

[billythekid]

online tournament