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Old 04-26-2006, 11:31 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Default Expected Value.

Hi,

I have found on pokerroom.com Expected value statistic.

For example I have 33 on hand and stats show value -0.14 (for 3 players, I'm on SB).
Does -0.14 mean that if I bet $1 with this cards on hand for 100 times I will win only $86 and loose $14 ???

Please told me am I right or wrong.

Alex
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Old 04-28-2006, 09:10 AM   #2 (permalink)
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Alexii,

It's my understanding that the (-.14) is average profit with that hand in that situation (by the players on PokerRoom in the aggregate), as measured in big bets.

In other words, if you're playing a $2/4 game, you can expect to have a net profit (loss) of ($0.56) each time you play that hand in that position (-.14 * $4 = a loss of $.56), if you're an average player on PokerRoom. Of course, if you're better than average, you might have a lower loss with it. If you're less talented, you can expect to lose more.

The problem with 33 in the small blind is

1) you're out of position; that is, you're first to act pre-flop.

2) there's a 99.9% chance you'll see overcards on the flop (the only time you won't is when the flop is all 2s and 3s), so you're usually in a tough spot post-flop.

3) the only time you're confident is when you hit your set (another 3) on the flop, and that only happens 11.8% of the time (1 time in 8+ times).

Bottom line, you usually end up folding that hand post-flop, so by putting more money in the pot, you're usually losing it.

Couple of other things to note:

The total average on PokerRoom for 33 is -0.07 (regardless of table limit, position and number of players).

The PokerRoom stats are for limit play only. In contract, I've had good luck with 33 in a NL game where the implied odds are much higher. For example, if I'm in position with 33 and there is an early pre-flop raiser with a caller or two, I might call with 33 knowing that if I hit my set, there's a very good shot I'll get paid 8x on the bet based on what's in the pot and my opponents propensity to keep going if he's got a big pocket pair or he makes his hand (e.g. he's holding AK and flops an A). You have to pick your spots, though. As I pointed out above, most times you're tossing it post-flop.

Keep digging.

EdmondDantes
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Old 04-30-2006, 01:21 AM   #3 (permalink)
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Thank You EdmondDantes,

you answer is clear for me.

I have another one. What do you think of this Expected Values that poste on PokerRoom's site ?
I read that for newbie players they are good, but as you grow (as player), you need to stop using them ?

Alex
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Old 05-02-2006, 11:21 AM   #4 (permalink)
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Alexii,

I think the EV numbers are useful for both novice and experienced players. The represent an average...novice players might expect lower EVs...more experienced players might expect higher EVs. But they do highlight two of the most important factors in the EV of your hand 1) selection; that is the value of your starting hand and 2) position; that is the value of acting last.

In my experience, most people overestimate how well they play, so it's worth checking the EV stats from time to time to rethink what you're playing and where you're playing it. You can make an argument for playing any cards at any time, but the average EV numbers would suggest you should think hard about your rationale for playing 86o out of position before you do it.

Keep digging,

Edmond
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