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Live at the Bike: AK vs. QQ -- Tough Decisions


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Analysis

Ayman is dealt Q Q in MP and raises to 125. He is reraised by Joe with A K on the Button to an additional 500. Ayman agonizes over his decision a bit, but calls.

On a flop of 543, Ayman checks to Joe who bets 1,000 with overcards and a wheel draw. Again Ayman goes into the tank. Joe shows Ayman that he only has about 500 left. Ayman eventually calls which is interesting, although it probably doesn't really matter what he does here because with so much in the pot and so little in Joe's stack all the money is going in on the next street regardless of the next card. Ayman must be putting Joe on either AK or a pair like TT or JJ.

The turn is an A so Joe hits one of his over cards. Of course, he would also have taken the lead with one of the four 2's. Ayman checks again, Joe happily goes all-in and Ayman reluctantly calls given how much he has already put in the pot.

Could things have been different if Ayman eitiher lead out on the flop or check-raised all-in on the flop? It's likely that Joe folds if Ayman bet strong on the flop. However, since Joe only had 500 left after his flop bet, it's unlikely that he would have folded to the check raise.

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Ayman

Winning %
Pre-Flop: 54.0%
On Flop: 60.0%
On Turn: 4.5%

Joe

Winning %
Pre-Flop: 46.0%
On Flop: 36.0%
On Turn: 86.4%


Board

FLOP
    TURN
    RIVER