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Unorthodox lines, Part IV: Hand reading on the river
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Unorthodox lines, Part IV: Hand reading on the river
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By Adanthar
on 04/14/2007
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read Adanthar's complete blog
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Last time, I wrote about an HSNL hand where putting your opponent on a very exact range made it mathematically possible to determine the best line. In this installment, we are going to expand on that by going back to HSNL to read this thread. Descriptively titled "fullhouse", it contains a 100/200 NL hand between Grimstarr (a well known LAG) and another good online pro, Jinksop. This particular hand has some great hand reading material leading to a very tough, but necessary decision on the river.
Let's take it street by street. Preflop, with 25K stacks, Grimstarr completes 63o and Jinksop checks. The flop comes down 7 6 3 , Jinksop bets the pot (400), Grimstarr raises to 2000, and Jinksop calls. What can J have at this point? Clearly, a wide range (any seven and up), but with the aggression factor of these games, we can rule out any set or better* and any big draw (98, for example, would drool to be all in here). What does J think G has after his raise? It can really be almost anything (with Grimstarr, I doubt 86 is the bottom of his 'real hand' range, not counting all the bluffs), but let's conservatively assume something like "draw/pair + draw/decent seven or better" for this particular ugly looking limped pot board. However, J does know that G will almost never show up with a set here since G will probably be raising any small pair PF.
*This deserves an explanation. As you can see, there's some good debate in HSNL about whether people will check hands like 77-66 in the BB when the SB completes heads up. I don't have the nosebleed stakes experience to comment on this, but the combination of checking PF and then just calling the big raise on that board makes no sense. Given that people frequently 4 bet A7 in that spot, it's very very unlikely that J has a set. By the same token, we can also discount 54, although PF makes that more likely.
The turn is the T and both players check. What can J have now? The T itself (not the club) won't usually have improved him after bet/calling a big raise, but he can definitely have whiffed on a CR with a flush or a straight. Most hands that he could have bet/called with are usually going to check/something on the turn, as bet/call, bet is a comparatively rarer line and the board just got uglier. G's range, though, narrows down considerably for J; good LAGs will not check behind small flushes on boards like this, and most other 'really good' hands will also bet. The hands that will often check behind here are bluffs that have given up, one pair marginal hands that check this board because they might be good but would hate a fairly standardish semibluff CR (bottom 2 pair is pretty much in this category) and occasionally bigger hands like 76/54 that also hate a CR (although these will often bet anyway.)
The river is the 3 . J leads 3000 into the 4400 pot; not counting bluffs, occasionally, he'll be in here with a big one pair (really 2 pair) hand like A7, or a T that wanted to bluff and caught. Usually, though, this is the top part of his range, because a lot of G's 'vulnerable made hand' range from the turn is autocalling when the board pairs the river. For example, J cannot fully discount AA-QQ from Grimstarr, and nobody folds those with that action.
Grimstarr raises to 8k with his bottom full house. We can instantly forget any marginal hand raising this river (I hope you see why**); it's a bluff or a straight+ (maybe a very thin raise with A3 if he raised the flop with it), much more often a flush. Keep in mind that, if G has a flush, his range is heavily weighed towards bigger flushes - 4 3 doesn't check behind on the turn very often.
**This is only the case vs. thinking opponents. If you're playing 25NL vs. a guy whose hand range by this point is any two cards, you can often go ahead and raise something like A7 for value.
Now Jinksop shoves for 25K. High stakes poker has its share of legendary hands, and a 3 bet bluff in this spot would certainly be legendary, but we can discount it down to 'just about never'. However, he knows Grimstarr's range is essentially...let's say 15% bluff, 25% "big hand < a big flush", 60% "a big flush or better" (we can play around with the percentages, but it won't make that much of a difference) - but never sevens or sixes full. It's a rare spot where villain knows not just the lower part of your range, but also the upper. He also knows that Grimstarr will never call a 3 bet with a medium flush or worse (again, this should be self explanatory), yet he shoves anyway. Therefore, J is saying he can beat a flush, and 63, much like A x, is a bluff catcher. In a very sick spot, G has a full house heads up in high stakes NL and should fold it.
In the actual hand, Grimstarr timed down, called and was shown 73 for the slightly bigger boat. In my opinion, in addition to that money, he lost a few thousand almost as precious Sklansky bucks.
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