Bond18 Permatilt blog entry

lakong · 04-28-2008, 02:24 PM

In a recent post by bond18 title Permatilt at:

Permatilt by - bond18

he says:

I also played a $500 WSOP satellite on Pacific with 4 seats guaranteed and made the final table. I raised TT utg with 15 BB’s, got flatted in EP, then the SB decided to come along as well. The flop came 832 and I got it in vs the SB who had me a brilliant pre flop call with 88 getting way, way more than the implied odds on a set he needed verse my 15 BB stack. Way more, I assure you.

The flat call by the SB didn't seem so bad to me, but bond18 implies that it was awful. First, it seems like the SB would get just about the right odds if he hits his set and bond pays him off which is likely. Second, 88 just might be good at this point. I realize that the SB would be out of position on a low flop and it would be a very difficult spot, but do you really want to lay it down in this situation? I just don't see this. That said, I would love to hear what bond and others have to say about this.

Bumboklaat · 04-29-2008, 08:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lakong

In a recent post by bond18 title Permatilt at:

Permatilt by - bond18

he says:

I also played a $500 WSOP satellite on Pacific with 4 seats guaranteed and made the final table. I raised TT utg with 15 BB’s, got flatted in EP, then the SB decided to come along as well. The flop came 832 and I got it in vs the SB who had me a brilliant pre flop call with 88 getting way, way more than the implied odds on a set he needed verse my 15 BB stack. Way more, I assure you.

The flat call by the SB didn't seem so bad to me, but bond18 implies that it was awful. First, it seems like the SB would get just about the right odds if he hits his set and bond pays him off which is likely. Second, 88 just might be good at this point. I realize that the SB would be out of position on a low flop and it would be a very difficult spot, but do you really want to lay it down in this situation? I just don't see this. That said, I would love to hear what bond and others have to say about this.

I have a feeling that Bond will say something like:

My range with a 15 bb stack raising UTG into a full table where I am more than likely to get at least called if not put allin pre is waaaaaaaaaaay ahead of 88. Put another way: What hands is Bond18 raising UTG with that stacksize at a full table that 88 is ahead of? Answer: (more than likely)NOTHING!!!!! The worst hand that Bond is prolly raising is AQs here, so the best that sb could hope for is a race vs his possible range. And teh sarcasm was thick but yeah you should basically never be "set mining" vs a 15bb effective stack even with the caller in teh pot.

Am I close Bond?

lakong · 04-29-2008, 08:41 AM

That's fine, but... My questions was a bit different. First with, he was getting about the right odds to hit his set given that there was a second player in the pot. Second, I was asking if bond18 or anyone else on these boards would simply fold 88 in that situation from the SB.

Are you saying that you would fold 88 in that spot? If so, why? Now I don't know the guy's stack size which would factor in quite a bit, but it appears that the guy had him covered so it appears that he was in good shape to make the call and see how things transpired on the flop.

Bumboklaat · 04-29-2008, 12:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lakong

That's fine, but... My questions was a bit different. First with, he was getting about the right odds to hit his set given that there was a second player in the pot. Second, I was asking if bond18 or anyone else on these boards would simply fold 88 in that situation from the SB.

Are you saying that you would fold 88 in that spot? If so, why? Now I don't know the guy's stack size which would factor in quite a bit, but it appears that the guy had him covered so it appears that he was in good shape to make the call and see how things transpired on the flop.

OK, first:

He is not getting 11/1 implied odds to "setmine" vs a 15bb stack and EP flat.

Second:

Yes (fold). (Why)You are OOP. A shortstack opened, if he is worth anything he is not going away on the flop. What range of hands does a top player like bond open UTG w 15bbs? What range of hands does an EP flatter of an UTG raise have? What kind of equity does 88 have vs the callers range; vs the UTG raiser's range? What kind of flops are you going to feel good about continuing on vs the caller (considering you are not worried about the orig raiser UTG)?

The answers are, in order: small(guessing obvvv)think top 11%. EP flat range is maybe 66+, AJo+ KQs. No poker tools at work to give u equity vs callers range but you are praying for a race at best, imo. And the 88 actually has potentially better equity vs the callers range than bonds range opening 15bbs UTG. And lastly, there aren't very many flops you are going to feel warm and fuzzy about continuing with your hand. For these reasons I fold the 88 as the sb in this spot.

The only other thing I may do here is if I think the EP flatter has a wide range, and if the UTG raiser is known to open light on the shortstack, I may go for the squeeze. But that is obv read/situation dependant.

lakong · 05-01-2008, 10:59 AM

Bumboklaat. Not sure where you get your 11/1 implied odds but the actual odds of hitting the set on the flop are about 7.5-1. So let's see... Bond doesn't say how much he raised but I assume it's 3x and he gets called. So when it gets to the SB there are 7.5BB in the pot. So now the SB is faced with calling 2.5BB and he only needs to make a little less than 19BB for this to be profitable (or 11.5BB more). If he hits his set he will very likely stack Bond and get the right odds, if not tons more since there is another guy in the pot. I really think this was an easy call. I'm not sure where you are coming from on this.

Landlord79 · 05-02-2008, 08:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lakong

Bumboklaat. Not sure where you get your 11/1 implied odds but the actual odds of hitting the set on the flop are about 7.5-1. So let's see... Bond doesn't say how much he raised but I assume it's 3x and he gets called. So when it gets to the SB there are 7.5BB in the pot. So now the SB is faced with calling 2.5BB and he only needs to make a little less than 19BB for this to be profitable (or 11.5BB more). If he hits his set he will very likely stack Bond and get the right odds, if not tons more since there is another guy in the pot. I really think this was an easy call. I'm not sure where you are coming from on this.

7.5 to 1 is correct and I'll agree w/ what you said. He's getting 3 to 1 immediate odds and he only needs to make 4.5x more on his call to make it profitable LT. I'd definitely consider folding to a SS UTG raise, but w/ a caller in there to juice the odds and increase the possibility of taking a stack when you hit your set, I'd peel a flop off w/ 88 as well. If he misses the flop, his hand should be fairly easy to play post flop or he could have also considered a "stop-n-go" as a viable move here w/ a mPP.

Bond is SPR committed to the hand, so a stop-n-go is probably a bad option at this point. Though I'm not sure how much SPR plays a role in tourneys as much as it does in cash.

Bumboklaat · 05-13-2008, 10:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lakong

Bumboklaat. Not sure where you get your 11/1 implied odds but the actual odds of hitting the set on the flop are about 7.5-1. So let's see... Bond doesn't say how much he raised but I assume it's 3x and he gets called. So when it gets to the SB there are 7.5BB in the pot. So now the SB is faced with calling 2.5BB and he only needs to make a little less than 19BB for this to be profitable (or 11.5BB more). If he hits his set he will very likely stack Bond and get the right odds, if not tons more since there is another guy in the pot. I really think this was an easy call. I'm not sure where you are coming from on this.

Yes, I know what the actual odds of hitting a set w a pp are, ty.

I want at least 11/1 implied odds because that is your odds on the flop when you dont flop the set, to hit by the river. And since it is so rare that you flop the set (13%) I want good implied odds for when we whiff. It is important to consider the whole hand and how it will play out when deciding to "setmine".

To be clear, you are not "setmining" to try and stack Bond here, if you are setmining it is to stack both, setmining to stack a 15bb stack is superspew and I think you know that.

Bumboklaat · 05-14-2008, 11:00 AM

here is an excerpt taken from an onlne players blog reiterating what I said above:
The other thing I would say is that you want to be looking for implied odds of 10:1 to draw to a set pre flop - if one person bets 4X the BB and you are the only caller with 44 you are going to lose money unless you have a brilliant read on your opponent and are able to call down light against aggression.

lakong · 05-14-2008, 12:50 PM

I still think it's a good call here and I would be suprised to find most players folding. I could be wrong, just "suprised", that's all.

Adanthar · 05-26-2008, 07:31 PM

The problem with that number is that you don't just need set odds. You actually need set odds *and* for the set to hold up (or for you not to be drawing to 1 out when you do), and that second number is significantly larger than the first number, especially 3 handed.

The other issue is that 88 = 22 there, and you most assuredly should not usually be calling with 22 in that spot. You guys just want to call because you're thinking of all those awesome 643 flops, when the truth is that you actually have reverse implied odds on those flops when you do get them.

(yes, I do fold there vs. competent players all the time)

04-28-2008, 02:24 PM	#1 (permalink)
lakong Member Join Date: Apr 2006 Location: Los Angeles, CA Posts: 98	Bond18 Permatilt blog entry In a recent post by bond18 title Permatilt at: Permatilt by - bond18 he says: I also played a $500 WSOP satellite on Pacific with 4 seats guaranteed and made the final table. I raised TT utg with 15 BB’s, got flatted in EP, then the SB decided to come along as well. The flop came 832 and I got it in vs the SB who had me a brilliant pre flop call with 88 getting way, way more than the implied odds on a set he needed verse my 15 BB stack. Way more, I assure you. The flat call by the SB didn't seem so bad to me, but bond18 implies that it was awful. First, it seems like the SB would get just about the right odds if he hits his set and bond pays him off which is likely. Second, 88 just might be good at this point. I realize that the SB would be out of position on a low flop and it would be a very difficult spot, but do you really want to lay it down in this situation? I just don't see this. That said, I would love to hear what bond and others have to say about this.

05-14-2008, 11:00 AM	#8 (permalink)
Bumboklaat Junior Member Join Date: Feb 2008 Location: Cloud 9 Posts: 6	Implied odds to setmine here is an excerpt taken from an onlne players blog reiterating what I said above: The other thing I would say is that you want to be looking for implied odds of 10:1 to draw to a set pre flop - if one person bets 4X the BB and you are the only caller with 44 you are going to lose money unless you have a brilliant read on your opponent and are able to call down light against aggression.

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04-29-2008, 08:41 AM	#3 (permalink)
lakong Member Join Date: Apr 2006 Location: Los Angeles, CA Posts: 98	That's fine, but... My questions was a bit different. First with, he was getting about the right odds to hit his set given that there was a second player in the pot. Second, I was asking if bond18 or anyone else on these boards would simply fold 88 in that situation from the SB. Are you saying that you would fold 88 in that spot? If so, why? Now I don't know the guy's stack size which would factor in quite a bit, but it appears that the guy had him covered so it appears that he was in good shape to make the call and see how things transpired on the flop.

05-01-2008, 10:59 AM	#5 (permalink)
lakong Member Join Date: Apr 2006 Location: Los Angeles, CA Posts: 98	Bumboklaat. Not sure where you get your 11/1 implied odds but the actual odds of hitting the set on the flop are about 7.5-1. So let's see... Bond doesn't say how much he raised but I assume it's 3x and he gets called. So when it gets to the SB there are 7.5BB in the pot. So now the SB is faced with calling 2.5BB and he only needs to make a little less than 19BB for this to be profitable (or 11.5BB more). If he hits his set he will very likely stack Bond and get the right odds, if not tons more since there is another guy in the pot. I really think this was an easy call. I'm not sure where you are coming from on this.

05-14-2008, 12:50 PM	#9 (permalink)
lakong Member Join Date: Apr 2006 Location: Los Angeles, CA Posts: 98	I still think it's a good call here and I would be suprised to find most players folding. I could be wrong, just "suprised", that's all.

05-26-2008, 07:31 PM	#10 (permalink)
Adanthar Member Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 71	The problem with that number is that you don't just need set odds. You actually need set odds and for the set to hold up (or for you not to be drawing to 1 out when you do), and that second number is significantly larger than the first number, especially 3 handed. The other issue is that 88 = 22 there, and you most assuredly should not usually be calling with 22 in that spot. You guys just want to call because you're thinking of all those awesome 643 flops, when the truth is that you actually have reverse implied odds on those flops when you do get them. (yes, I do fold there vs. competent players all the time)