So, I’ve been really lax in posting into my blog lately. Mostly due to a downswing that reaches back into February. So I’m going to give a continued effort to focus on the mental aspect of my game that I can voice out on this blog page. I’ve been listening to the Seven Habits of Highly Effective People on audio book and feel that blogging with a point of talking through my frustrations and working out plans to improve my game will be a “Quadrant 2” activity for my poker game. Here it goes:

I’ve been on quite a loller coaster lately. My game’s a joke and I’m pushing every small edge that peeks around the corner. I’m auto-piloting WAY too much and making standard plays and decisions rather than thinking every hand out. 18 tabling is the main cause of my auto piloting problem at FR.

I’ve jumped from FR to 6max in an attempt to shake myself out of this rut, but have found that 6max is a much different game than FR. Fortunately for me, Stoxpoker only makes 6max NLHE videos, and I’ve been able to watch vid after vid to amp up my 6max game. (By saying that they only make 6max vids, I’m implying that they make absolutely no FR vids. They do also make HU vids, a few PLO vids and some other random vids, but overall, they aren’t very diversified.) In fact, I think that most of my problems w/ my FR game have originated from watching too many 6max vids and incorrectly applying the amped up aggression of 6max strategies to the FR tables. If you want evidence of why I think this; my last $1k+ month was in January when I joined Stoxpoker. I don’t think that Stox is bad by any means. I think that I’ve misapplied the strategies provided.

Since I know the problem now, how do I fix it????

1. I can stop watching the Stox 6max vids.
Not very sensible since I’ve got a paid year of membership and Stox is still a great resource for learning.

2. I can learn to crush 6max.
I think this is a little more viable to rounding out my overall poker game.

I’ve been playing 6max for most of the month now and am having pretty, much positive results. I’m thoroughly enjoying the aggression, and I think I’m running something like 24/17ish which is a great break from the monotony of FR’s 15/12. I’ve been playing 6max 50NL, and have had varied results. I think in order to fully learn the game and have some success I’ll need to humble myself and drop down to 25NL for a while. 10k hands should do it, and then I can return to my normal stakes.

Goal:
Crush 6max, 25NL for 10k hands then move back up to 6max 50NL

I came to this conclusion after watching Thac and Pokey’s vids on 2p2. They dropped down stakes to make their videos and thoroughly crushed the games. This reminded me that I once too was crushing 25NL and I thought that this would be a great way to rebuild my confidence and would help me to get back on track to winning ways.

Wish me luck!!


PS – Congrats to SirWatts on his WPT Bellagio Cup IV win!

Theory: He who controls the initiative, controls the hand.

If no player makes a good hand or a decent hand on the flop, turn or river, what determines who wins said hand? Initiative

What do I mean by Initiative?
Initiative is what wins the pot until a real poker hand is made that can rightfully claim said pot.

Always ask yourself when you are getting ready to enter a pot: Who has the upper hand (by being the aggressor) and who is in the position of having to make a hand?

“If you constantly call other people’s raises, you will always be at a disadvantage (regardless of their cards.) Also, if you are making them call you, they will always be at a disadvantage.” – Doyle Brunson (though I may be wrong on the quoter here)

I would like to theorize that initiative is a key weapon of a successful poker player. Looking at initiative as a weapon to be wielded, then we, as poker players, must learn to use initiative. We need to recognize when our opponents have the initiative and also to let our opponents think that they have the initiative when we hold a pot controlling hand. Sometimes we need to push the initiative ourselves and sometimes we need to relinquish the initiative to an over aggressive opponent who will stab himself in the foot when he makes a major blunder (i.e. when we have a made hand against an aggressive opponent.) Raising him to take the initiative away too soon may cause him to fold without committing significant dollars to the pot. We need to also recognize when our opponents have acted in a way that takes the initiative away from us and decide if they genuinely now possess a controlling hand or are they simply exploiting the initiative.

Here are some ways that we can take the initiative in a hand , some of which are ways to take the initiative away from another player in the hand.

1. Raising preflop – This is the most basic of methods to control the initiative in a hand. When you are the pfr’r, you will win the blinds a significant amount of time. Also, you are going to Cbet a high percentage of the time when you are called pf, most of which will be a bluff or a semi-bluff. The villain has put himself into a spot where he must either make a hand, or bluff/rebluff into you to win the pot. These are usually small pots won in this category, but many small pots over time will add up to a significant portion of your total win.

2. 3 betting preflop – When someone has announced by a pfr that they wish to possess the initiative, you can snatch the initiative away from them by 3 betting them. 3 betting is very good for defining yours and your opponent’s hand pf. Sometimes this is done when you hold a significant pf starting hand, sometimes it is done “light” from the blinds vs. a LP raiser, sometimes it is done in LP vs. a player who is getting out of line or who folds to 3 bets often. This is a more powerful weapon than a standard pfr, and must be followed by a Cbet much more often when called. When you 3 bet an opponent, you firmly hold the initiative in your control, but when you get it wrestled away from you, the pot is usually larger, and the villain will more often than not hold a very powerful hand. 3 bets by the villain are just as effective against our raises and they will fire a Cbet just as often on the flop. Therefore, we must make a decision pf about what flops we need in order to be prepared to defend against the villain’s post flop play. Folding to a tight villain’s 3 bet is rarely a huge mistake especially OOP. As stated in PNL, we need to plan our hand in advance and decide if our expectation looks positive.

3. Floating allows the initiative to stay in the pfr’s control until they give up the initiative by checking the turn. This is a more passive way of taking the initiative and is dependent upon the pfr’r giving it up and not firing a 2nd barrel. Your call on the flop will sometimes be with a draw but when the villain gives up by checking on the turn, you can easily turn your drawing hand into a very +EV semi-bluff. Floating is also tried w/ PPs that haven’t improved and have two or less overcards on the board, 2nd pair hands and bare overcards when they think you’re on a pure bluff. The best defense against habitual floaters involves check-raising your strong hands and bluffs/semi-bluffs on the turn.

4. Check-raising muscles the initiative from your opponents. By giving your opponent the opportunity to fire at the pot, you allow them to control the initiative before you snatch it away from them with a raise and announce that you have a real hand. The villain may elect initially not to bet at the pot, but that’s in their control since you have allowed them to possess the initiative by your check. C/Ring also allows you to control the initiative as a bluff, such as when you feel that a LP raiser is getting out of line, many times a C/R will snatch the pot away from them. Once again, if you have to wrestle with an opponent over the initiative after a C/R, then they very often will hold a good hand and you can fold easily if you do not also possess a strong hand. (See Baluga Theorum)


Min C/R’s are poor attempts to either bluff cheaply or finesse some more money into the pot. Min C/R’s are usually done w/ very strong made hands when they are finessing, and they allow the original possessor of the initiative to feel that they have to hang on due to the “pot odds” being offered them. Pay attention to your opponents and take notes on who has a strong hand w/ a min C/R and who uses this same play to bluff. In the absence of good information, err on the side of caution against this play.


5. Double-barreling can be a great tool when utilized at the proper times. It holds the initiative firmly in your hands and says to your opponents that you don’t leave your kids out in the cold to be snatched up by some conniving soul. Not 2nd barreling gives up the initiative and allows floaters to take command of the hand. Watch the caller’s stats to determine if they are a likely floater and decide based on the board texture whether or not the flop hit the villain’s range and if you think they will fold to a 2nd barrel. Once again, past history is the best indicator of future actions, so pay attention to hands that you aren’t involved in.

6. Semi-bluffing is a powerful and leveraged use of initiative. Just calling w/ strong draws has less EV than semi-bluffing w/ them since you don’t generate any fold equity through your use of betting/initiative. By letting the other player control the initiative you have relinquished control of the hand and have become completely card dependent for winning the hand at showdown. I win with most of my draws by being the bettor, not by showing down the hands that I make 33% of the time. Good semi-bluffing involves knowing your opponents. Daniel Negreanu says, “If you bluff a bad player, you then become one.” This is a doctrinal poker proverb and applies to semi-bluffing just as much as pure bluffing. It is also a key to understanding how to beat the lowest stakes (up to 25NL.) +EV semi-bluffing can involve floating, raising for free cards on the flop, double barreling and ck-raising. Learning when and where to apply these tactics will require discipline and discernment.


Here are some ways that we relinquish the initiative in a hand. By relinquishing the initiative, we can attempt to trap an aggressive player, or we have relegated ourselves into having to improve our hand to continue in it.

1a. Smooth calling pf is bad when talking about controlling the initiative. Smooth calling forces you to make a hand as most of the time you’ll be facing a Cbet on the flop. Unless the villain is a good floating candidate or you have a hand that either hits the flop hard or is easy to fold when it misses, you shouldn’t be calling other people’s pfr’s. Small pocket pairs are excellent for smooth calling as you either hit the flop or you dump your hand. Suited connectors are good to smooth call with, when you’re in position. You should also only be smooth calling w/ SC’s when you and your opponents are deep enough to take advantage of the implied odds of these high potential hands. SC’s don’t connect with the flop all that often, but they are hugely deceptive when they do hit. Also, SC’s shouldn’t be played for TP hands unless you think you can pull off a float steal on the turn.

1b. Smooth-calling pf OOP is horrible. Full Ring is a game where the blinds matter very little since they come around less often. Blinds matter more in 6max games since your opponents are stealing w/ a much wider range. Also, blinds matter more in tournaments since they become larger and larger percentages of your stack. You should usually only defend with hands that hit the flop hard or are easy to fold as discussed above. Drawing hands OOP are very –EV as any acts of initiative through semi-bluffing are made blindly as to the actions of the pfr’r. A good 3 bet can be much more +EV than a simple smooth-call, but remember to pick your spots carefully by knowing your opponent.

2. Slow-playing is voluntarily leaving the initiative in your opponent’s hands and allows them to bet worse hands w/o you initially revealing the strength of your hand. However, when you do finally reveal the strength of your hand via a C/R or Turn/River lead bet, the jig is up and the strength of your hand is now much more apparent. Slow-playing should be mostly board dependent and partly based on the strength of your hand. A set of Jacks can be slow played on a J-7-3r board, but should never be slow-played on a J-9-8 board w/ 2 to a suit.

From fimbulwinter's "Pilgrimage into 25NL" regarding errors made at 25NL
“5. Slow-playing the wrong kinds of hands. People ALWAYS slow-played sets. One hand a guy had JJ on a J98 flop and pushed in on the river with a board of 389JQ. Slow-playing should depend not on the strength of your hand but on the likelihood of it being outdrawn. One hand a habitual lag bet into my A7s on a board of A33r in an unraised pot. If I'm ahead, he has very few outs, if I’m behind he'll probably get paid as he was such a terrible lag. I called and put a blocker out on the turn and river and took a nice pot against his 88.”


Conclusion:
Know your opponents and pick good spots to use initiative to pick up orphaned pots. Most of the time players don’t make a hand and the pot will be won by whoever takes possession of the pot. Pots are obtained by utilizing initiative to represent a controlling hand.



Disclaimer:
Playing +EV aggressive poker can be learned, but there is a cost associated w/ learning. This cost is not variance but is commonly referred to as “spewing.” There is a very tough learning curve associated w/ becoming an aggressive poker player. In the micros, the judicial use of these tools is paramount. It is both a quality and a QUANTITY issue. I think the poker books flying off the shelves do a great injustice to many beginning players by not stressing the value of folding. Overuse and misuse of these tools WILL cost you more money than playing passively will. Implement one aggressive strategy at a time until you get it down, then move on to the next one. Try to use all of these weapons sparingly and in the correct situations.

It is significantly easier to run all the moves mentioned above if your image is that of a true TAG. If you are running LAG stats, you won’t be able to sell everybody on the stoutness of your hand. Planning ahead and folding PF is often the best line out there that the micro player can embrace, then the initiative plays will have more teeth.

Special thanks to Threads13 and King Spew on 2+2 for helping me to revise this essay into a readable and correct format.

"The important thing is to keep playing, to play against weak opponents and to play
for big stakes."- Warren Buffet

This is my motto for online poker. In fact, I might just make it my signature
statement. Warren is speaking of playing bridge in this situation, but boy, does it
ever apply to poker!

"The important thing is to keep playing," if I don't have a bankroll because I blew
it on playing some game that was out of my league, I'm out of the game and can't
continue to make money. Taking shots is one thing, but over estimating your
abilities and over extending your bankroll is just arrogant. Spending your bankroll
is akin to being a quitter, IMHO. Bankroll management is key in our game, if you
don't have any tools you can't do any work. Our Bankroll is the tool of our trade.
No money, no play, it's that simple.

"To play against weak opponents," Many people have ego problems that keep leading
them to play tougher and tougher games. I guess that their motivation is different
than mine. My motivation is to make money at a hobby that I enjoy, not to beat the
best players in the world. I think that eventually one will lead to the other, but
I'm not going to risk a substantial portion of my bankroll against players who have
developed their game far beyond mine. "You can sheer a sheep many times, but only
skin it once" has a key thought in it that you may not readily see. I'm looking
to sheer sheep, not fight wolves! That's why I don't play my current stakes on
some of the more populated sites. I'm a 4 lb bass in a 2-acre pond where I'm
currently playing, but if I were to move over to Poker Stars... well, a 4 lb bass is
snack food in one of those games. Yes, a Brian Townsend who is driven by ego to
conquer the game will run up the gamut of the poker world faster than me and will
probably always be a better poker player than me, I'm okay with that. I just want
my little piece of the pie on a steady and consistent basis.

"And to play for big stakes." This is kind of a see rules 1 & 2 statement, if you
manage your bankroll and stay in the game and you consistently play against weaker
players with the occasional, calculated shot taken to move up in the poker world,
eventually you will play higher and higher stakes that will give you a bigger and
bigger return. 8 months ago I was playing $10NL with a $24 Bankroll. This was the
smallest stakes game that was available to me and I was consistently playing weaker
opponents. In the last 8 months I have moved up to $100NL and I still feel that I
am one of the best players on the site and stakes that I am playing. Do I want to
move up to $400 and $600NL, yes, when I'm ready and when my bankroll is large enough
to sustain the variance of that stake. Without bankroll management, I am likely to
become just another shooting star.

That's my $0.02 on how this snippet of Buffetology relates to poker.

Poker is a game of ups and downs that we commonly refer to as variance. For periods of time, whether they be days, weeks or months, players can run really hot or really cold. I’ve seen absolute morons walk into a home game and destroy the room because the cards just hit them square in the face. The average players complain about how bad the new guy is playing, but the truth is, you want him to come back and keep playing like he is playing, it will all average out in the end once variance has corrected itself. And when that happens, the good players will be the ones holding the fat wallet.

Are we completely subject to variance? Do we have any control over poker’s natural swings? Most would say yes, we have no control and lady luck is holding all of the cards, all that we can do is get our money in good and hope that the cards hold up. Eli Elezra has a great saying that I love to quote, “In poker you can only make the best decisions you can and let the cards take care of themselves, while understanding that the cards do not always take care of you.”

Truthfully, until recently, that is exactly what I thought until some friends of mine were talking about sharing their wins and losses. I don’t mean to say that they were cheating, heck, they don’t even sit at the same table most of the time. This isn’t a totally new concept, tournament players do these kinds of staking deals all of the time to help smooth out their swings.

My 2 friends had a very loose method of splitting their profits & losses, not based on math, but based on fairness between friends with some other loose guidelines worked in. Basically, if both players profited they would split the profits down the middle. If one is a big winner and the other a loser then the winner simply covers the loser’s loss. If the winner’s profit is small and the loser has lost a buy-in, then the winner simply buys gas and dinner. Like I said, some very loose guidelines.

Sounds good to me, but I like more concrete guidelines for insuring and I also want to put out some guidelines for choosing who you should or shouldn’t be insuring.

Insurance Agreement:
1. In a win/win situation – Both players agree to share 30% of their wins.
Example: Player 1 wins $500 and Player 2 wins $100.
($500 x 30%)-($100 x 30%)= $120 going to Player 2 from Player 1 to help share the profits and smooth out some variances.
2. In a win/loss situation - the winner agrees to insure the loser with the lesser of 30% of the winner’s profit or 50% of the loser’s loss.
Example: Player 1 wins $500 and Player 2 loses $200.
$500 x 30%= $150 and $200 x 50%= $100 Since the lesser of the two is $100, player 1 only covers half of player 2’s loss.
3. In a loss/loss situation – Everybody loses!!!!!
4. In a loss/break-even situation – The loser can’t drag the break-even player down into the negative.

Who to Insure:
1. Someone of comparable skill and ability playing at the same limits.
2. A verifiably winning player.
3. Someone with a comparable bankroll. (#3 may not be as important when you are just making short-term agreements, but is very important with long-term agreements.)

I’ve just started fleshing this concept out, so any further thoughts would be welcome. I don’t use this insurance online, I just use it at casinos when I’m playing live and can utilize more hand reading skills.