Pre-Flop

The clip opens with Barry Greenstein sitting 9-handed in a 50/100 NL game on Live at the Bike. Other notables at the table include Mike (a LATB regular, more info needed), Jeff Cabanillas and Yosh Nakano . Stacks are roughly <200 BB; Barry's sitting relatively short with ~100 BB.

Jeff and Yosh both limp to Barry on the dealer button. Barry holds AK and raises to $500.

Mike calls from the small blind with T9. Yosh folds. Jeff calls with 55, set mining.

The pot stands at $500 + $500 +$500 + $100 (Yosh's contribution) + $100 big blind, looks like $1700 total.

The pre-flop odd are 38% (AK) > 32% (T9 > 30% (55).

Flop

Flop is KQ8

Mike checks. Jeff checks. Yosh, off-camera, wishes he had his hand (J6)back from the muck.

Odds are now 47% v 49% v 4% for the pocket fives.

Both Mike and Jeff check to Barry, who bets $1000 -- a 2/3rd pot-size bet.

Mike thinks for a moment then calls. He has a decent amount of equity in the hand. His problem, though, is that with T9, he's not sure where he stands with his straight and flush draws. At best, he's got 40% or so equity, but there's a decent chance he doesn't have the nut flush draw, in which case his equity is sharply reduced.

Jeff folds. The pot now stands at $3700.

Turn

The turn blanks, 2, and Mike checks. Barry moves in for his remaining $7000 (70 BB) or so. Mike thinks for a moment and mucks.

Editor's comment

This hand is a classic example of a common low stakes leak, playing connectors (suited or unsuited) from the blinds, to a raise by a solid player. The hand and pot odds often seduce the blinds into calling the raise and looking to hit the flop.

Too often, though, you miss the flop...

Odds of flopping two pair:	49 to 1 (2%)
Odds of flopping trips:	73 to 1 (1%)
Odds of flopping a straight:	77 to 1 (1%)
Odds of flopping a straight draw:	9.5 to 1 (10%)

So typically, you find yourself out-of-position in a growing pot with a marginal hand. And even if you do demolish the flop--say flopping a straight or flush--you're unlikely to get a ton of action from a thinking player.

Note: you can see the odds of flopping certain hands here.

Limp/calling with a pocket pair (i.e. Jeff C's play) is defensible if you believe your opponent will stack off with a pair. Calling with a connector is defensible if you believe you're IN POSITION against a weak-tight player you can push around or one who will stack off light. That's not the case here.

Conclusion: Fold the T9o pre-flop.

End note: the commentators comment that Mike likes to test himself and play against the best. That's fine, of course--you can only improve by testing your play against better players or stakes. But please...IN POSITION.

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1) Jeff Cabinallas won the $5,000 NL limit event at the 2006 WSOP, defeating Phil Hellmuth after a 3-hour heads-up match.
2) Yosh Nakano is high stakes cash game player and host of the high limit games at the Bicycle Casino
3) You can calculate the odds here.

Adanthar: