Log in with your TwoRags.com account. Click here to register. Email: Password: Remember log-in information

Authors note: I’m not proof reading this one tonight because I’m really tired, so if there’s grammar errors deal with it for now. I’ll probably fix it later.

I figured the ‘(seriously)’ was necessary for the title so people didn’t get blue balls clicking the blog thinking “I can’t wait to see Bond go on some arrogant condescending rant this time!” and getting a serious strategy post, so there you are. Pokersavvyplus member ‘DHM0219’ posted a link in my forum to an article by Phil Hellmuth that also contained video of a hand against JC Tran. Here’s the link:
http://www.philhellmuth.com/phil-hellmuth-poker-blog.html?id=2971

Now if you read the article you’ll be disgusted because Phil discusses the possibility of doing something other than shoving 6400 chips with KQs in early position at 300/600 with 75 antes, including suggesting limping it and folding top pair post flop. With $1575 in the pot let me make it very clear that shoving is the only appropriate play here, as you’ll increase your stack nearly 25% simply by taking it down preflop. However, let’s get on with discussing the strategic merits to the hand in the video.

Tran holds 5c 2h.
Hellmuth 5d 8d.
The blinds are likely 10k/20k as there is 30k in the limped pot to the flop.

Preflop: Hellmuth completes in the SB, Tran checks.
Flop: 8c Ad 4c (Pot 30,000)
Tran checks, Hellmuth bets 15k, Tran checkraises to 30k, Hellmuth quickly calls.
Turn: Ks (Pot 90,000)
Tran bets 35,000, Hellmuth instantly calls.
River: 2c (Pot 160,000)
Tran shoves for 132,000, Hellmuth tank calls.

So why do I like it despite what appears to be a scare card getting there on the river? I’ll try to elaborate best I can. My guess is that Hellmuth would likely explain his call here based on his ‘read’ and not get much more specific than that, though I honestly can’t say. I’d like to break down the hand by eliminating hands from JC Tran’s range street by street.

Preflop: When Hellmuth limps and Tran checks it makes it very unlikely that Tran holds a lot of the range that would check min raise the flop for value, which is mostly sets and two pairs. It’s probably Tran would raise 44/88/AA pre flop, though sometimes he could check the 44 and AA. A8 would sometimes raise as well (I’m not sure what Tran’s heads up game is like, but many players would.)

Flop: Tran has check min raised. I will say that I have never played Tran and know very little of his game, but Hellmuth likely knows that Tran very probably has a polarized range here. The majority of Tran’s range to check min raise is going to be:
A. Big hands, many of which are discounted from preflop but still contains two pair possibilities and just maybe a set.
B. Draws, although it’s a sort of strange way to play one some players elect to take lines like these and check min raise draws, mostly flush draws in this situation. Whether JC plays draws like this often is information Hellmuth would be more privy to than I am.
C. Air, because players like checkraising small on Axx and Kxx boards; normally if a person doesn’t have the top pair or a good draw it’s all that’s needed to get them off the hand.

Turn: Tran bets small on the turn, barely over one third pot. The Ks changes basically zero, and Tran would sometimes bet this size with his draws as a blocker and possibly his air, but it’s likely his big hands bet a little stronger because Tran must think a lot of Hellmuth’s range is draws since he doesn’t expect Hellmuth to complete many aces on the small and if he did he knows Hellmuth will likely call any reasonable sized turn bet with an ace so he might as well bet a little bigger to protect against the draws in his range as well.

River: The 2c scare card hits and Trans jams about 80% pot. Now, if Tran had two pair or even a good top pair that he strangely elected to play this he would at times consider checking the river or betting smaller because it’s a considerable scare card. Tran knows that Hellmuth expects some draws to be part of his range and so by shoving on that card with a two pair type hand he is likely over repping his hand and not going to get called by worse often (not true if that happened this time!) Hellmuth also likely figures that if Tran truly made the flush he might not shove for value because Hellmuth knows that Tran knows it’s a scare card and hard to get paid on unless Hellmuth has a big hand. As such, Hellmuth has either eliminated or discounted most set and two pair combinations from Tran’s range, still believes he’s capable of showing up with air, and discounts flushes a little bit based on the river bet sizing (and it’s possible he thinks Tran wouldn’t check min raise the flop with his flush draws.) Hellmuth is left believing most of Tran’s range is either a very strongly played flush draw and now flush, or air so he makes the call and JC Tran does his best not to burst into tears on camera.

I’d be interested to hear if any of my other Savvy instructors have similar thoughts on the thought process involved in the hand.