I did not sleep well the night before Day 3, was awake far too early in the morning and could not get back to sleep. I had a sense of foreboding about the day, but tried to tell myself to just enjoy it. The money was already invested in the tournament and even if nothing came of it I was already set-up with my new job in Montreal in August.

My initial table draw looked like this:

Herberholz, Mark USA 50,200 1 MTG player
Taylor, Stuart UK 129,500 2
Wach, Dan USA 33,100 3 EPT Final Mini-Cash 09
Myung, John USA 115,700 4 $1.9M inc some big cashes
Utt, Garrett USA 146,100 5 2 cashes, inc 44th in 1k special
Crivello, Craig USA 130,900 6 $420k many small cashes
Raymond, Derek USA 131,400 7 2009 2.5k O8 bracelet winner
Patrick, Joseph USA 68,700 8 Unknown
Ginzburg, Roman USA 72,600 9 1 small 09 WSOP cash

I was only worried about Seat 4 and sure enough, early in the first level, he began to play aggressively and 3-bet me OTB when I opened light from HJ. Not much happened in the level, I played an average number of pots for my game, including one with AA, but didn’t win or lose anything big and finished the level with 118k.

I did notice that Seat 9 was playing a lot of pots and sometimes doing unusual things like limping the button (which he then c-bet and I check-raised him with air and took down the pot). Seats 3 and 8 soon busted. A 51-year old guy with a big stack and a massive unlit cigar in his mouth moved into Seat 3, but he seemed to play quite a straightforward amateur game, including over-valuing his single pairs, but he was hitting a lot of flops and generally winning pots.

The more significant development was Justin “ZeeJustin” Bonomo moving into Seat 8. He also had a lot of chips and soon got involved in several pots. I opened QQ UTG and he called me OTB. I c-bet the nasty looking AK6 flop, but he quickly mucked and must have been playing a small-medium pair or suited connector type hand and believed that I had the Ace.

Still things weren’t going too badly when I got involved in my first big pot:

My Stack ~120k, Seat 9 ~80k, Blinds 800/1600/200, I hold AJo in SB.

Seat 9 opened from the CO for 4400, which was a fairly standard sized raise for him at this level. He had been opening a lot of pots. I felt that 3-betting him with AJo was the best play here because I am out of position with a hand that doesn’t generally flop well, so I am expecting to take it down preflop, but if he calls I can represent a lot of strength after the flop, or if he 4-bets I can easily fold. So I make it 12.8k. In hindsight I made my betsize a little too large and made my hand look a lot like AK. I should generally be making 2.5X type bets to ~11k here, but it’s not a huge mistake. After some thought he called:

Pot ~29k
Flop QT8r

I feel that he must be calling with a range of hands that generally missed that flop and I’m only really worried about him having got lucky with AQ/KQ/TT or him being stubborn preflop with marginal hands like KJ (he was quite a stubborn player). Given the strength of my preflop 3-bet, I believe I can represent strength by c-betting at this flop. With 29k in there, I need to make it a good sized bet, and 20k seemed about right, but it did expose me to exactly what transpired: an all-in move by Seat 9 with good fold equity. I sighed and let it go, but that knocked me down to ~85k and kinda put me on a little bit of tilt.

I went over it in my head afterwards and wondered if I could have played it differently. I still felt the 3-bet/c-bet line was correct, just that my bet-sizing could have been 11k/15k, which would have saved me 6.8k in chips, but likely ended in the same result.

After feeling a little tilted for a while, I told myself to let it go and just enjoy this experience. I was now short-stacked in relation to the average and my table, but still have over 50BBs and could grind it out. I did that for a while, but things just didn’t go my way as my opening bets kept getting called and I missed every flop. This bled me down as we approached the end of the level, when my final hand of the WSOP came up and brought into play a lot of factors that I’ve been writing about, analysing and discussing through the series:

My Stack ~74k, Seat 9 ~75k, Seat 8 >200k, Blinds 800/1600/200, I hold AJcc in MP.

Seat 9 limped UTG. He had already limped a few hands from various positions and, as such, this limp did not arouse any suspicions. I thought about raising with my AJs to isolate Seat 9, but decided to keep it small by over-limping. This attracted another limp and both of the blinds into the pot:

Pot 9.8k
Flop Q45cc

I’m obviously liking that flop and when it checks to me, I decide to lead out for 5.5k with my strong draw to give myself some fold equity, either right away or to set-up that image for a strong bet on the turn. The other limper and SB fold, but ZeeJustin makes the call in the SB. Seat 9 tanks for a while before moving all-in. I wasn’t expecting that!

Here I think we are presented with a situation where it is important to get the maths right and I spent a considerable amount of time making sure I counted the pot, calculated the pot odds, gave my opponents a range of hands and estimated my equity. All key concepts in poker that are the fundamental basis of the game: are we being offered an attractive wager to make the call here?

With the 16.5k from the three 5.5k bets added to the 9.8k preflop pot, we have 26.3k in the middle plus the remaining 67k in my stack, meaning we can win 93.3k for a call of 67k. We have ~1.4-1 and need ~42% equity for an attractive call (I was able to calculate the 1.4-1 and 42% in my head at the table).

I then considered his potential hands. Most likely he has something like AA/KK/AQ/KQ. He could also have stronger hands like QQ/44/55, but I felt these were unlikely due to the size of his shove. He may well have some weaker hands including weaker flush draws such as KcTc. So overall, I felt that mostly I have 12 outs, rarely do I have only 9 outs, but some percentage of the time I am actually ahead of his lower value draws. I gave myself ~45% equity at the table. Running it now on Pokerstove, I get this if I assume that semi-bluff lower flush draws represent ~10% of his range:

Board: Qc 4c 5h

44.822% { AcJc }
55.178% { KK+, AQs, KQs, KcTc, Kc9c, JcTc, Jc9c, AQo, KQo }

I then considered my tournament and table situation. With the blinds about to increase to 1000/2000/300, I would be left with 33BBs and an M of ~12, whereas the tournament average was over 130k and most of my table has well over 100K. Also, we are still several hours of play away from the money with ~1400 players remaining. Although I am very capable of grinding out my stack, the Main Event structure means that short-stacks will be increasingly facing pressure from bigger stacks, when holding playable 20-30BB stacks, before getting to the much easier to play 10-20BB stack level. Even then, with such a small stack, unlike most other online or live tourny situations, you are so far below the average stack size that your chance of survival with a small stack is much lower than normal, because there is less fold equity due to much bigger stacks being able to afford to make marginal calls against shoves or re-shoves.

I also had a number of skilful players at my table. As such, I did not feel that I would be able to generate much of an edge with a 67k stack. Given that I was being offered a fairly significant edge in this particular pot, therefore, it was a worthy wager and I decided to make the call. Moreover, if I won this pot I would have a healthy 160k stack and able to put some pressure on the other players at the table and generate more of edge in future hands.

ZeeJustin quickly folded what he later said was 23. Seat 9 showed me KK and although I can’t remember for sure, I don’t think he had Kc:

Board: Qc 4c 5h

46.566% { AcJc }
53.434% { KdKh, KdKs, KhKs }

Essentially, therefore, I had a coin-flip for my tourny life and likely for my first WSOP Main Event cash. I’m normally pretty calm in these situations, but I guess this time there was a little more pressure so I stood up, as did my opponent (he was essentially all-in with a coin-flip too):

Turn 6o (ZJ woulda got there)
River 8o

And my WSOP was over. I wished everyone good luck and shook hands before making my exit. I didn’t get angry or upset because this ending to my summer was always on the cards. It is the end of my poker dream; the end of my career as a poker player (although I will continue to pursue it as a hobby); and the beginning of my normal life back in the ordinary world.

Starting Day 2A with 31k at 200/400/50, I was still very deep-stacked and not concerned about being below the average at this early stage of the tournament. My table draw, with hyper-LAG Anthony Lellouche on my direct left meant that I would have to adjust my strategy and only open pots with good to premium hands for the most part.

Within the first orbit, however, I found myself in an interesting spot:

My Stack ~31k, Seat 2 ~34k, Seat 6 ~51k, Blinds 200/400/50, I hold J8s in CO.

Seat 6 opened for 1.1k, I called and Seat 2 in the SB also called:

Pot ~4k
Flop 975r

Seat 2 leads out for 2.5k, Seat 6 folds and I feel that I’m getting the right price for my DGSD:

Pot ~9k
Turn 6o

I hit the low end and call another 5k bet. The river blanks and the SB finally decides to slow-down and check. I feel that my hand is good almost always here and decide to go for value with a 7k bet. He calls and I’m expecting a chop, but he shows TT and I rake in the big pot and I’m up to 47k.

A few hands later, I’m involved again:

My Stack ~47k, Seat 7 ~23k, Blinds 200/400/50, I hold AA UTG+1

I open for 1.1k, there’s a caller in-position and then Seat 7 makes it 5.1k from the SB. I re-raise to 25k, the over-caller folds and Seat 7 makes a quick call with AKs and I hold to move up to over 70k.

During the next couple of orbits Anthony Lellouche plays and wins almost every pot, but I don’t mind because I can see that they’re breaking the tables and I get moved to a new table with a bunch of unknowns. I soon get involved by 3-betting one loose looking guy opening from LP twice in a row, but having the goods both times (AK and AA) and showing. I then lose back what I made playing a couple of speculative hands and chasing a little. I soon get into an interesting spot:

My Stack ~70k (Seat 6), Seat 1 ~50k, Blinds 200/400/50, I hold KQs in BB.

Seat 1 opens the pot from MP, SB calls and I call from Seat 6.

Pot ~4.5k
Flop T97r

Checks to the raiser and he bets a weak looking 2k, SB folds and I consider raising, but decide there’s enough value to call with my GSD + 2 overs. The turn blanks and I think I can take it away from him here so I lead 7k into the 9.5k pot and he reluctantly folds.

My table gets broken again and I’m moved to the Seat 1, Amazon Blue Table 7, where I’ll stay for the rest of the day. There’s not long left until the first break, but I get involved in one interesting spot:

My Stack ~72k, Seat 9 ~80k, Blinds 200/400/50, I hold 77 in BB.

Folds to middle-aged lady’s SB and she completes. I look down at 77 and consider raising, but decide to just call in-position and see what develops:

Pot: 1250
Flop T78hhd

She leads for 1.5k and I again think about raising, but decide that calling is fine:

Pot: 4250
Turn 9d

She checks and I think controlling the pot by checking behind is the best line here. If I bet and she raises, I’m likely folding and might sometimes be folding the best hand:

River 5o

There’s no flush, but it’s a pretty scary board for a set. She bets out 5k and I think about it for a while: what could she lead the flop with that made a straight? If she already had a straight on the flop (J9 and 96) then she would have continued to bet on the turn to protect versus flush draws. If she had a Nine in her hand she might lead the flop, but then made no straight (e.g. 89, 79, T9). I just couldn’t put her on many hands that actually made a straight here, so I decided to call and was good versus 85. That got me to ~80k at the break and I was feeling good at my great start to the day.

Things got even better during Level 6:

My Stack ~80k, Seat 8 ~30k, Blinds 250/500/50, I hold AA OTB.

Seat 8 opens for 1400, I make it 4k and he calls: flop 885. He bets 5k, I move-in, he calls with QQ and I hold to move up to 110k.

My Stack ~110k, Seat 7 ~70k, Blinds 250/500/50, I hold QQ UTG

I open for 1350 and it folds around to Seat 7 in SB who makes it 3.5k. He has been quite active and has a lot of ante chips. I elect to call and play a flop:

Pot ~8k
Flop T88dd

He fires 7k at the pot and I quickly call:

Pot ~22k
Turn 5o

He then fires a big 12k bet at the flop, but despite the strength that he had shown throughout the hand, I still felt that my QQ was good here, so again I quickly called the bet.

Pot ~46k
River Ko

He finally decided to slowdown and check the river. I was quite relieved, decided to check behind, and was good versus a massively over-played 99. I asked him why he didn’t fire again at the river and he said that I’d called so quickly and confidently on the flop and turn that he knew I was strong and that he couldn’t push me out. To be honest, if he fires a big bet at that river, I probably fold, but I was happy to grow my stack to ~137k.

A little while later the lady in Seat 9 lost most of her stack when she couldn’t find a fold with AK vs AA on a K-high rainbow flop:

My Stack ~135k, Seat 9 ~8k, Blinds 250/500/50, I hold 55 UTG.

I generally open raise my pairs, even from EP, but this time I decided to mix it up and limp-in. There were 3 more limpers before it gets to her BB and she makes it 4k with 4k behind. I consider that with the extra money in the pot from the limpers I’ve got good pot odds value with 55 versus her range, especially as she is likely on tilt, so I make it 8k to put her all-in. The limpers all insta-fold and she actually considers folding before finally reluctantly calling with Ah2d. The board flops three diamonds and when the Ad hits the turn, I’m relieved that I’ve got the 5d and win the pot. I have about 144k at the 2nd break.

Things kept moving in the right direction after the break:

My Stack ~145k, Seat 4 ~40k, Blinds 300/600/75, I hold 99 UTG.

I open for 1650 and Seat 4 calls in-position. He has been calling a lot and is a bit of a station. He had a big stack earlier, but lost a lot of chips recently with AQ vs KK on Q-high flop when he really should have found the fold button. I felt that he was chastened from that experience and would more likely fold now for his tournament life. I soon got to test that theory:

Pot ~5k
Flop AJ6hh

I bet 3.5k and he quickly calls. I know he has an Ace to make such a quick call, but that doesn’t worry me because I know he has seen me showdown monsters and I feel I can get him off his hand:

Pot ~12k
Turn blank offsuit

I now bet 6.5k and again he quickly calls.

Pot ~25k
River Kh

He has ~28k left and there’s 25k in the pot. I look at him, ask him for a count, and he looks uneasy. I say I’m all-in and he quickly folds. I ask him if he wants to see my hand and he says that he does, so I show him the bluff. He tells me he folded an Ace and is visibly upset by the bluff. Heavily tilted, he soon loses the rest of his chips, though unfortunately not to me.

I made another nice play with 99 a little later when the new player in Seat 9 raised Seat 8’s limp (Seat 8 had limped a lot and Seat 9 had done this play already) and I smooth-called OTB with 99 and then raised his 3k c-bet to 9k on A86ss flop.

I had become the table captain and was playing lots of pots and generally chipping-up. They all thought I was some kind of LAG maniac. On the last hand before the dinner break:

My Stack ~175k, Seat 2 ~60k, Seat 3 ~17k, Blinds 300/600/75, I hold AKo OTB.

Seat 8 limps-in for the umpteenth time and I pop it up to 2.4k like I’ve done 2 or 3 times before. Seat 2 is a smart player and has seen me make a few moves and decides to smooth-call, but what he hasn’t seen because he was looking at me, was that Seat 3 was already acting like he was going to make a move at the pot. Although it still took him ~1 minute after Seat 2 called my raise, I knew the all-in shove was coming and I was ready for it. Basically I decide that I would insta-call the shove and if Seat 2 really had a monster here then he would over-shove and I might be able to find a fold versus his stack. Fortunately, Seat 2 insta-folded and my AK held versus AJ.

At the dinner break I had a massive 196k stack, which put me amongst the tournament chip leaders (and interestingly was higher than anyone covered by P5sLive, who are not covering me this year because I prefer to keep a lower profile and deliberately did not register with their coverage team).

I had a nice dinner with my friend Jonathan and his mates from the Ladbrokes Poker Team and got back ready to keep moving onwards and upwards towards Day 3. Unfortunately things started to go pear-shaped as soon as I saw the looming presence of Sorel “Imperium” Mizzi coming to replace the guy I’d just busted from Seat 3. With a skilled LAG player like Sorel on my left I would have to be much more selective about my opening hand ranges and be careful not to get sucked into big pots versus him.

Things got even worse when one of the other tourney chip leaders, Brandon Demes, got moved into Seat 9. He also plays a very creative LAG style where he builds so many massive pots that getting involved without premium hands is extremely dangerous. Brandon and Sorel took over most of the action at the table and I was left to try to pick my spots carefully. Unfortunately, I wasn’t too successful:

My Stack ~195k, Seat 8 ~100k, Blinds 400/800/100, I hold AKo in SB.

Seat 8 has limped a lot from these kinds of positions, but recently started to open-raise more often. He makes it 2.4k, I 3-bet to 6.5k and he quickly calls:

Pot ~15k
Flop JTTdd

I think that is a hit or miss flop for his hand, so I continue to represent strength by leading out for 11k. He quickly pops it up to 22k. I can’t really see how I can continue here versus his stack so I fold and he shows me the bluff with 67hh. Sick!

My worst hand of the day (as far as chip loss goes), comes a little later in the level:

My Stack ~173k, Seat 7 ~33k, Blinds 400/800/100, I hold QThh in CO.

Seat 7 has been replaced from the earlier guy and is now occupied by a guy in a “chip me up” shirt (this means he is playing by virtue of online staking from that website). He has played pretty well to date, but has been caught bluffing when making very sizeable bets into scary boards. He opens for 2.2k and I call in-position hoping to catch a juicy flop:

Pot 6.5k
Flop Q45h

He leads for only 3.2k into this pot, which I feel is either weak or suspicious, but I’m not sure which, so I decide to just call and re-evaluate on the turn:

Pot ~13k
Turn 2h, giving me the flush draw

He now quickly bets a massive 15k of his remaining 28k stack at the 13k pot. I find this bet to be quite confusing. Can he really have AA/KK/AQ/KQ and make this bet? I guess he can, but I also feel he can be making a strong, apparently pot-committing bet like that with AK or even some more speculative hands that I’m ahead of. Overall, I feel that with 13k already in the pot and 28k more that I can win, I’m looking to gamble 28k to win 41k, so I only need 40% equity. Obviously I cannot calculate it all accurately at the table, but with 12 outs to my flush or two-pair, plus the chance that he is bluffing some of the time, I felt that I generally had more than 40% equity here, so I moved-in, he quickly called with AQ (no hearts) and I blanked the river to move down to 140k at the break.

Running the possible hands through Pokerstove, I find that I only need to put him on a worse semi-bluffing type hand 20% of the time to make my play correct, but I’m still thinking whether I needed to risk a 28k loss on such a marginal play.

After that, and with Sorel and Brandon increasingly taking over the table, I pretty much just clammed-up for the last level of the day. I was also feeling pretty tired and didn’t want to make any mistakes, so I bled off a little more in the last couple of hours to leave myself with 129.5k at the end of the day and looking forward to a new table draw on Day 3 where hopefully I can find some opponents that I can exploit as we play towards the money bubble that might be reached late in Day 3 or perhaps not even until early in Day 4.

Overall I’m happy with how the day went and I’d have taken 130k if offered it at the start of the day, but after flying so high until the dinner break, the last two levels did take the shine off the day a little and I do somewhat regret the marginal 28k gamble that I took with the QThh because having ~160k would make me feel a lot better. Still, I have over 100BBs going into Day 3 and no reason not to feel confident about being able to play well and accumulate more chips.

There are three full days between Day 1A and Day 2A of the Main Event. While it is important to get some rest, that’s just too long to go without playing poker. Last year I played a Venetian Deepstack $1k event in between and managed to bink a 3-way chop for $48k. This year I noticed that the Golden Nugget’s Grand Series $1k Championship Event was scheduled over the holiday weekend, so I decided to give it a try.

Despite the seedy reputation of its downtown location, the Golden Nugget has been recently refurbished and can now be classed as a reasonably nice quality establishment. It also has a great pool scene plus shark tank easily visible from the lobby area as you walk-in. It’s also the home to High Stakes Poker.

The Grand Series was held in a ballroom rather than the poker room and they had perhaps 30 tables set-up in there, but attendance was low and they only managed to get 108 runners for the Championship Event. That still created over $100k prize-pool with $36.6k for first. It was also very deep-stacked with 25,000 chips, one hour levels, blinds starting at 50/100 and rising very gradually.

Surveying the starting field, it looked like a pretty tough bunch, with several skilled online pros (including the Gray twins). My opening table wasn’t too bad, but once again I managed to run bad at the start:

My Stack (Seat 5) ~25k, Seat 1 ~22k, Blinds 50/100, I hold KK UTG+1

UTG opens for 150 and I pop it up to 525, Seat 1 calls OTB and UTG calls: flop QJXr. Seat 1 has played a lot of pots and called down pretty light. As such I’m not too worried by his laconic looking call. I bet 750, OTB calls and UTG folds: turn J. Obviously I don’t like that card, so I check to gauge Seat 1’s reaction, but he quickly checks behind. River blanks and I check again, intending to call any bet from Seat 1. He checks again and shows me AA. Wow, I ran KK into AA and only lost 5% of my stack. Phew!

My Stack ~24k, Seat 7 ~30k, Seat 9 ~20k, Blinds 50/100, I hold AJo in MP

I open for 250, Seat 7 makes it 1350 and Seat 9 quickly calls. I think about my situation for a moment: Seat 7 seems like a typical loose aggressive Scandi whereas Seat 9 also seems kinda spewy. I am out of position with a hand that generally flops badly, but it is only 1100 to call, less than 5% of my stack, and the thought enters my head that if I can flop two-pair or better here I will win a big pot from one of these guys. So I decide to take a somewhat speculative punt on calling:

Pot 4.2k
Flop AJJ

Nice flop! I pause and look at it for a moment, feigning indecision, then check for deception. Seat 7 checks, but Seat 9 bets 2k. I pause again, call the 2k and Seat 7 also calls. The turn blanks and both Seat 7 and myself check again. Seat 9 now makes it 4k and I call again. Seat 7 folds. With 18k now in the pot, the river blanks. He has ~14k left and in these situations, I generally try to bet an amount that will leave my opponent with some hope of a tourny life if they call and lose, rather than go for the home run of his whole stack. So I make it 8k, he pauses for a while, but pays me off with KJ. Perhaps I get his whole stack by taking a stronger line in this hand, but I’m happy to chip-up to ~43k at this early stage.

I then get moved to a much tougher new table to balance up the tables. It’s worth describing some of these guys as we spend the rest of the day here:

Seat 1: Young aggressive guy who likes to make big bluffs (eventually busts late in the day bluffing with complete air versus a pot opened and c-bet by Seat 5 in a 5-way pot versus a flopped set)
Seat 2: Me
Seat 3: Very good tight aggressive Asian-American guy who accumulates a big stack through the day with some highly impressive and huge river calls versus big bluffs
Seat 4: Bad, spewy English guy who thinks he knows more about the game than he does (I know some of my haters might think this description also applies to me, LOL)
Seat 5: Foreign-speaking guy who is by far the luckiest player at the table and accumulates through being a station and hitting flushes, sets and straights for fun
Seat 6: Chubby 50ish sports-betting, gambling-addicted guy who likes to give as he good as he gets versus other arrogant East Coast guys: later in the day he got into a massive pot with the younger arrogant pro in Seat 8, where he put him all-in on the turn, younger guy folded and then they started arguing and he challenged the young guy to Heads-Up for $25k. Finally busted bluffing all-in on a 3-flush, 3-straight, Q-high board with 8s8x versus Seat 3 who made a massive call for a 100k pot with just AQ. After he busted replaced by typical redneck looking, sloppily dressed guy who seemed to play quite bad, calling station type loose passive, but got lucky and built a stack.
Seat 7: Young German guy plays quite bad loose aggressive. Busted later and replaced by chubby Asian-American guy, who came with a massive stack, but lost a lot of it to the redneck in Seat 6 when they built a massive pot on a T4TQ board: river Q, redneck moves-in for his last 20k and poor guy blows his top and tilt slam-folds 44 face-up on the table. Redneck shows AQ.
Seat 8: Unimpressive tight young player for most of the day, but who then spewed-off 20BBs by jamming A5o over tight old guy UTG limp in Seat 10 with AK. Replaced by skilled, young arrogant East coast guy who I’ve played with before and is very good.
Seat 9: Very loud, talkative, typically-arrogant East Coast guy, who nevertheless managed to inject enough humour into his chat that it wasn’t really offensive and often quite funny. For some reason that happened prior to my arrival at the table, he had been arguing with Seat 3 (who generally seemed like a nice guy). After he lost a pot to a big bluff by Seat 1 and Seat 3 tapped the table in appreciation, he called him a Toolbox. Seat 3 called the floor and asked for him to be given a warning, but he majestically turned the situation around, much to everyone’s laughter, when he said “I only called him a Toolbox, that’s a good thing, it’s full of useful things to get you through life like a hammer and a wrench, so I’m only calling him a useful things to get you through life box”. The floor laughed and we moved on. He was also a highly-skilled competent player and, although short-stacked at one point, got through the day with a healthy stack.
Seat 10: Had a few occupants, the last one being a tight older guy; although I did win a sizeable pot from its previous incumbent, a middle-aged conservative looking American guy.

I played pretty tight-aggressive for the most part, but did manage to steal my fair share of the blinds, pull a 3-bet resteal over Seat 10 (when it was occupied by the middle-aged guy) and try to occasional post-flop bluff. Here are a few key hands that I remember:

My Stack ~40k, Seat 9 ~60k, Blinds 100/200, I hold A9s UTG+1

I had been playing fairly tight since coming to the table and had been trying build a profile of each of the players. I already knew Seat 8 was playing a lot of hands trying to hit big flops where he could catch people over-valuing top-pair or an overpair and he’d been paid off in one hand like that already playing 45o. Due to my tight image, I decided that an EP open with a suited Ace was fine, but attracted calls from OTB in Seat 7 and Seat 9 in the SB (Seat 8 was empty at the time).

Pot 1800
Flop 945r

Checks to me and I bet 1200, OTB folds and Seat 8 quickly makes it 2600 more. I said to him “I knew you were going to make a move on me sooner or later” and decided to fold. It may seem pretty weak to just fold to a C/R here, but I don’t have what I like to call a “big pot hand” and if I call here, I know he’s going to keep on firing. So I fold without showing and he shows me J8s for the bluff. It’s fine and I’m cool with that because he can just as easily have two pair or a set in that spot and it’s part of the discipline of deep-stacked poker not to over-value hands like mine.

Unfortunately I go very card dead before picking-up AA in a spot where Seat 9 opened, Seat 1 called and I 3-bet from the CO. If I had been more active then perhaps I get some action, but they both fold.

I then get into an interesting spot:

My Stack ~40k, Seat 1 ~50k, Blinds 150/300/25, I hold AKo in the CO

Seat 10 limps from MP and Seat 1 makes it 1000 straight. I’ve seen him make some moves and he didn’t seem very strong here, but I don’t want to build too big a pot just yet so I call in position, blinds fold and Seat 10 calls.

Pot ~3.5k
Flop 753r

Seat 10 checks, looking uninterested and Seat 1 slides 2.5k into the pot. I really don’t think he has much here and I call intending to take it off him later. Seat 10 folds. Turn 2. I had planned to take it from him on the turn, but when I added a gutshot to my two overcards and he bet 4k, I felt like I had good value in calling. In hindsight that was a mistake as I should have stuck with my plan and gone for the raise on the turn. I really felt like he still had next to nothing and was just making a move. River was a Queen and he slid out a bet of 7k. I didn’t like the river card and I regretted not making my move on the turn. I still felt like a raise would get him off his hand, but with ~24k now in the pot, I would need to put most of my stack in jeopardy to make my move. I definitely had fold equity and I knew in my gut it was the right move, but I got this nagging feeling that I’d be such a donkey if he showed-up with a big hand here. My heart gave-in and I asked him to show me if I folded. He agreed and turned over 44. Arghhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I knew it! I fucking well knew it! Once again I’ve correctly read a situation only for my heart to let me down. I’ve got to stop worrying about looking like a donkey and play to my instincts. Damnit!

I can’t remember which level my next big hand happened or the pot size, but I hold J9dd in the CO. Seat 10 opens the pot and I call in-position: Flop T8X. He bets around ¾ pot and I call: Turn blanks. Check-check and the river is the beautiful Queen. He bets out around ½ pot and I raise him quite a bit more. He pays me off.

I then spend quite a while not picking-up any big pots, bleeding off chips, when I try something out with pretty bad results:

My Stack ~24k, Seat 5 ~50k, Blinds 300/600/75, I hold 23o in HJ

I open for 1600 just to use my tight image to steal the blinds, but Seat 5 decides to defend his SB. He has defended a lot and is such a station about chasing draws, but I figure I’ve got to c-bet any decent looking flop:

Pot 4k
Flop Q96ss

I bet 2.5k, he ponders for a long time then calls. I believe he is on a draw.

Pot 9k
Turn 7o

He checks again and I figure that card didn’t make his draw, so I want to make a big bet to show him I’m pot-committed and get him off it. So I throw 9k into the pot (leaving me with only ~11k behind). After a lot of pause, he decides to put me all-in. Fuck me! Obviously he either hit the flop very hard or just made a double gutshot draw with T8. I suspect the latter, the fucking lucksack! I angrily fold, telling him he’s the luckiest player at the table and he gives me a smile. Yes, sir, I know you got there on the turn, sigh!

I hang-on with my short-stack until the dinner break. After dinner I get a little lucky:

My Stack ~11.5k, Seat 10 ~35k, Blinds 400/800/100, I hold 22 in BB.

Seat 3 opens for 2200 UTG, Seat 10 calls and I consider my situation. There is 6.4k already in the pot and it is 1.4k for me to call with 9.5k behind. So if I hit my set I can win 16k for a bet of 1.4k. Given my stack size and the fact that these are two of the tightest players on the table likely holding premium hands, I figure I get paid in full pretty much every-time I hit my set. The only danger, therefore, is hitting my set but still losing, which might happen 20-30% of the time versus two opponents. As such, I decide it’s worth the gamble and make the call:

Pot 7.8k
Flop A23dd

Bingo! I check, Seat 3 checks and Seat 10 makes it 5k. I move-in, Seat 3 folds, Seat 10 calls and I’m hoping he has exactly what he shows, AK, and I more than double-up to a healthy 27k.

I soon pick-up more steam:

My Stack ~27k, Seat 8 ~60k, Seat 1 ~50k, Blinds 500/1000/100, I hold AA OTB.

Seat 8 opens for 2.7k, Seat 10 calls and it’s almost the same as the situation earlier where I held AA. I again make a healthly raise to 9k, selecting an amount that looks like it’s a little on the large size (making it look like a squeeze). Seat 8 tanks and looks like he’s considering moving-in, but folds. Seat 10 does exactly the same, but decides to call the 9k.

Pot ~24k

He checks the raggedy flop with 2 diamonds to me and I indicate all-in. He folds AQo and I pick-up a nice pot to boost me up to over 40k again. I then get in perhaps my most interesting spot of the day:

My Stack ~43k, Seat 3 ~150k, Seat 9 ~50k, Blinds 500/1000/100, I hold 88 OTB.

Seat 9 opens the pot for 2.7k, Seat 1 calls, I call and then Seat 3 pops it up to 8k from the SB. He has played very tight and I do not put him on a move here, but only a premium pair like QQ+. Seat 9 then calls the raise, Seat 1 folds and I consider my situation. There is 23.4k in the pot, it is 5.3k for me to call and I will then have 35k behind. So if I hit my set I can win 64k for a bet of 5.3k if I get one of the two players to pay me off after the flop. I am getting implied odds of 12-1. Obviously we know that we hit a set with odds of ~7.5-1, but versus one opponent we will still lose the hand ~20% of the time when we hit and versus two opponents that rises to around 30%. So we have to have significantly better than 7.5-1 to justify to call: at least 10-1. Then there is the factor that even if we hit our set we might not get paid off in full. In this spot, it is likely that I get paid off by Seat 3, because I know he has a premium pair, but if he holds KK and the flop is AQ8, I might not get paid my full-stack. There are lots of other flops that he might not like that contain an 8, so let’s say he pays us an average of two-thirds of our remaining stack. That reduces the implied odds to ~9.5-1. As such, I felt it was a marginally –EV spot to pay 5.3k in the hope of hitting a set, especially as I still had a nice workable 40BB stack at this point and didn’t have to gamble it up for a while. So I folded knowing that I’d see the flop. I cringed as the dealer showed me J86hh, Seat 3 bet 20k and Seat 9 folded. After that bet, I’m sure to win his whole stack provided I can fade his 2 outs with the AA that he showed. I believe it was a correct decision, but it still haunted me a little, sigh.

Unfortunately I then bleed off some chips in a couple of awkward spots where I’m put to difficult decisions. Here was the toughest one:

My Stack ~35k, Seat 6 ~25k, Blinds 600/1200/100, I hold KQo in SB.

Seat 4 (now occupied by LAG young American) opens for 3200, 3 calls before it reaches my SB and I wonder whether I have enough value to call KQo OOP versus so many opponents. I think there’s value if I can make two-pair or a straight, so I make the call.

Pot ~18k
Flop AJ5cc

I check and everyone checks around looking uninterested. Based on these actions, I’m pretty sure nobody has anything better than a Jack or a draw at this point.

Turn Qh

I feel like that gives me the best hand here a lot of the time, but I don’t want to bet out and rather see how everyone reacts. The guy who opened and Seat 5 look totally uninterested, but Seat 6, now occupied by the redneck, takes a stab at it for 10k with only around 12k behind. It folds to my SB and I think about what he could have. I really can only put him on twos hands that beat me: KT/QJ. Otherwise I’m pretty sure he has no Ace and he can also have QT, KJ, JT, flush draw, or even some other random Qx type hands. As such, I figure I’m beating at least half of his range and even have outs versus the two hands that are beating me (albeit only 3 outs to a chop for KT and 7 outs to a win versus QJ). Getting almost 3-1, I decide to make the call.

River 8c

Obviously that makes some of his flush draws, so I check and feel I’ll be in a tough position if he moves-in for his last 12k, but amazingly he checks behind with KT and at least saves me some anxiety.

That knocked me down to ~20k and into familiar steal/re-steal territory. I worked a few plays, but the blinds kept coming around and knocking me back down again until we reached the last 800/1600/200 level of the day with ~22k. I manage to maintain, but not grow, that stack for 45 minutes by well-timed shoves.

Finally, with 15 mins left of the day’s play, I moved in from MP with 88 and the Asian guy in Seat 7 re-shoved for ~40k. I’m hoping he shows me AK. He duly does and we’re off to the races…flop 972…still sitting calmly in my chair…turn K…sigh, getting up to leave…river blank.

I wish everyone good luck and tell them it had been a pleasure playing with them all-day. My ability to win key races continues to evade me, but the thought of the one that got away with the earlier 88 sticks with me, even though I’m pretty sure it’s the right decision.

After many months of bad poker luck, including the past 3 weeks live events in Vegas, I’d got myself into the mindset where I wasn’t even nervous or excited about playing the Main Event, just ready to do my best and let the cards fall where they may.

I managed to get a reasonable amount of sleep the night before my Day 1A start, but still got up in-time to cook myself breakfast and get over to the Rio at about noon. I knew they’d be late starting, so I pretty much got sat at my table in the Amazon Room just as they did the announcements.

The first surprise was the announcement that we’d only be playing four levels; quickly followed by the news that our “dinner break” would be after Level 2 at ~4.30pm. I was immediately suspicious that this was simply a cynical ploy by Harrahs to both get players to stay longer in Vegas and to get all the players into their restaurants when they would otherwise be empty. On later reflection, I can see that the fact that a thousand or more hungry poker players don’t have to try to struggle to find restaurant spaces in the peak evening time over the holiday weekend might not be such a bad idea.

Expecting some major celebrity and/or poker player to announce shuffle-up-and-deal, I was also a little disappointed that the honour went to the Chewbacca mascot from Official WSOP sponsor, Jack Links Beef Jerky. My table was like this:

Seat 1 Loose-aggressive 30-40ish guy in shades and cap: played really well all-day and accumulated a big stack
Seat 2 Young Euro, probably Scandi
Seat 3 Middle-aged American Woman played fairly tight early on, but loosened-up through the day: she was a straightforward ABC player who over-valued single over-pairs or top-pairs after the flop
Seat 4 Middle-aged South African guy played very few hands, but then played them badly
Seat 5 Empty at the start, but later occupied by young fairly aggressive competent player
Seat 6 40-50ish Vegas cash game pro, played very tight, but had the occasional move and was a tough opponent, although I did bluff him out of one pot later in the day
Seat 7 Me
Seat 8 Tough-looking pumped-up guy with tattoos, loose aggressive (**Edit: after checking the updates, I've discovered that this player was Erik Cajelais; a skilled pro with over $1.4M in live tourny earnings, including a WPT win)
Seat 9 Middle-aged English pro, Nick Gibson, plays a reasonably active but not over-aggressive style

In early action I noticed that Seat 1 was in every pot, playing passively before the flop then actively after. After he called my MP opening bet on his button, I tried a 2-barrel bluff with complete air on him, but he stood his ground and I gave-up to his bet on the river. That put an early dent in my stack, but it was nothing serious and I soon won most of those chips back in a few small pots.

Meanwhile, Seat 4 managed to play AA incredibly dimly by calling all-in following a betting sequence on a 669 flop where the guy in Seat 2 obviously had a minimum of trips. After being shown the rather obvious 64s, he managed to river an Ace to double-up to 60k and send the poor Euro kid home with a bad beat story.

My first big pot happened after around an hour:

My Stack ~29k, Seat 8 ~25k, Blinds 50/100, I hold AKo in MP.

I open for my standard raise size of 250, Seat 8 calls and we see a flop of K33. I bet 350 and get a quick call: Turn Qo. I check for pot control, but he bets out 900. I feel uneasy about his hand (with KQ being possible, as well as trips), but he had played aggressively and what I had seen up to this point, combined with his physical appearance, had led me to believe he was not a good player who might also overvalue other Kx-type hands here (although through the day he actually proved to be quite competent and I changed my initial view of the quality of his play: sometimes a “meat-head” type appearance can be very deceptive). As such I called: River Ao. Going with my incorrect read on him, I figured that I was now beating his KQ, as well as all of his Kx hands and that I should therefore bet the river for value. I made it 1200 into the ~3k pot, but he quickly popped it up another 3.5k. At that moment I needed to pause and re-evaluate my read, but I couldn’t find a fold and crying-called to be shown the mighty 23s.

**Edit: As I've now discovered that this guy was Erik Cajelais, it is no surprise that he outplayed me on this hand. Had I known that at the time, I'm almost certainly not calling his river raise here, but I'd under-estimated my opponent at this early stage of the tourny**

A little while later:

My Stack ~23k, Seat 6 ~30k, Blinds 50/100, I hold QQ UTG.

I open for 250 and it folds to the BB who makes it 1000 straight. He arrived late and has barely played a hand. I’d already overheard him talking to one of the floor staff about how he was regularly playing 10/20 and 25/50 NLHE in Bellagio, so I knew he was a tough, skilled opponent. I called and the flop was KJx. That was pretty bad for me because it hits most of his range that I was beating pre-flop, but when he bet only 1k I decided to peel another card: Turn another Jack. We both check. River blank and he bets 2k. I was thinking maybe I might just have him beat at this point, I called and he showed me AA. I immediately realised that I made a mistake calling the flop bet here: I really was beating none of his range and should have just given-up to that lousy flop. After that his pot-control check on the turn convinced me to call the river bet, but again it was obvious I was beat.

Not long after that:

My Stack ~19k, Seat 3 ~30k, Blinds 50/100, I hold KK in SB.

Seat 3 opens for 350 and I make it 1200. She then quickly and confidently pops it up to 4k and I’m thinking whether I can really be running my Kings into Aces here. I didn’t have any previous evidence to go on, but I felt that she may also make this play with QQ, but not likely with AK or JJ (as it transpired she later over-played QQ in almost exactly the way as she played this hand and lost a massive pot to KK on a J-high flop). As such, I decided to peel the flop and judge her reaction, rather than guess whether she had AA or QQ here: flop QT7cc. I check and she immediately went to her chips and bet 6k into the 8k pot. I thought about it for a while and it now seemed obvious that she had AA. Even if she did have QQ, she had out-flopped me, but I just don’t see anyone flopping top-set reacting the way she did on the flop. Similarly, there is no way AKcc or JJ reacts that way, so I was sure it was AA. I open-folded my KK, saying “Alright, I know I’m beat” and she kindly showed me two red Aces.

Knocked-down to half my starting stack before the first break, I was pretty shell-shocked. I opened a pot with JJ and got 3 callers: flop JJ3r. I check first to act and everyone checks behind. Turn offsuit blank. I check again hoping someone will have a stab at it, especially Seat 1 OTB, but they all check again. River is another useless blank card meaning there is no possible straight or flush and no cards higher than a Jack. I finally bet 1k into the 1.2k pot and everyone folds. I muck without showing. I later learned that there is a $100 bounty on Quad Jacks sponsored by Jack Links Beef Jerky, but missed-out on that by not showing, sigh.

I lose some more small pots and end Level 1 at ~14k. I go for the break and consider my situation: I still have 70BBs and anything can happen from here on in. Although I have a tough table draw, with some difficult players on my left, I just need to be patient and wait for my spots where someone will make a mistake.

Nothing much happened for me in Level 2 and I bled away some more chips without playing any big pots to be down to ~11k at the mid-afternoon “dinner break”. I went to the American Grill to try to get a seat at the bar, but it was full already, so I asked for a table. After a 10 minute wait they asked me to share a table with two other guys. They were both friendly and after some small-talk it transpired that one of them was non other than Reuben “SeaAnchor” Peters, the guy who beat Annette_15 heads-up at EPT Dublin.

I’ve played Reuben in lots on online tourneys and he recognised my name. We soon started to get along really well and he started to give me some advice about how to play my position better and stop so opening so many pots out-of-position. It wasn’t really revelatory or anything to me, but perhaps it reinforced something that I’d perhaps let get a little sloppy in my game. He especially told me to play any suited cards in position, as that had been a major boon for him lately.

I’m not sure if this advice made me play the key hands in Levels 3 and 4 any differently, but these were the ones that really got me back into the game:

**Edit: First I dropped down to ~9k by trying to bluff Erik Cajelais on the river, SB versus BB, with K2 on a TJQxQ board, after some betting before the river, and he called with J6. Had I known how experienced and skilled he was, perhaps I don't try the bluff in that spot**

My Stack ~9k, Seat 9 ~25k, Blinds 150/300, I hold Kd7d OTB.

Folds to my button and I make it 800: both blinds call and we see a 789ss flop. It checks to me and I check-behind: Turn Ko. SB checks, BB bets 900 and I make it 1800. He thinks for a while, then slides a big stack into the pot covering my remaining chips. I insta-call and I hold versus 89 to double through.

My Stack ~15k, Seat 8 ~60k, Blinds 150/300/25, I hold KdQd on the CO.

EP opens for 750 and we have 5-way action to the flop of Jd9d2c. It checks to me and with 4k already in the pot, I decide that this is the hand I’m going with for my tourney life. I make a 3500 bet into the pot leaving only ~11k behind and Erik Cajelais makes it 15k to put me all-in. I obviously call and it’s no surprise to see he has two black Nines. I’m not even worried and don’t get anxious or stand-up, but just sit there calmly as the dealer peels off the 6d on the turn. I do sweat the river a little, saying “now hold”, but it’s a harmless Ace and I’ve doubled-up back to my starting stack.

**Edit: This hand was reported in the Pokernews live updates, which is how I've discovered it was Erik Cajelais, but they mis-reported the board as Jc9d2d whereas I am certain it was Jd9d2c because I wouldn't forget having a gutshot straight flush draw**

I maintain for the rest of the level, gaining a little in the last orbit on a nice bluff over the Vegas pro and I’m back for Day 2A with 30975 chips. Quite an achievement after my shocking first level. Phew!

After busting from the Bellagio Cup event, I chilled for a few hours before going out for a ballin night of eating and partying. I put on smart trousers rather than jeans for the first time this trip and even tucked-in my purple shirt for our dinner at Prime in the Bellagio.

Prime is one of the best steak houses in the world. I always try to eat there at least once per summer. In previous years you’d normally have to book a day or two in advance to get a table on a weekday night and even further in advance for the weekend. Either that or be a VIP Guest. In the lean economic times, however, I managed to book only 2 hours ahead of time.

It was Rob’s first visit to Prime and he was well-impressed. It is a super-plush place with exemplary service. I had delicious shrimp wrapped in bacon for a starter and then a superb bone-in rib-eye steak. The accompanying wild mushrooms tasted absolutely stunning.

Rob and I have played credit-card roulette for every meal we’ve had together and I’d faded all four of them. I said to him that I needed my luck to change because if I could start losing at credit-card roulette than maybe I could start winning at poker. FML as the waiter picked-out Rob’s card again!

After dinner we went over to The Palms to party in the Hugh Hefner Sky Villa courtesy of PKR. We met the gorgeous Liv Boeree in the lift in a group with Brandon Cantu. I chatted with her later and she told me she’d just won a girl-on-girl boxing match that day. She’s always friendly and pleasant to people and we had a photo taken with her.

We met our friend Jonathan as we entered the invite-only, open-bar party. The place was already rocking, full of poker players and girls. Let me just try to paint a picture for you here. The Hugh Hefner Sky Villa is maybe 3000-4000 square feet on two-levels with a swimming pool on the outdoor terrace. In the main room there was a dance-floor and two podiums, upon which were two sexy gogo dancers in skimpy underwear.

There were three pneumatic playboy bunnies who were generally dancing and/or chatting with guests. In addition there were maybe 15-20 sexy girls in tight dresses who were there to chat with guests and make the place look beautiful. While they may be nice to look at, their conversational skills were generally banal; after talking with one of them for a minute or two, it was so excruciating that I was wishing she would just shut the fuck up.

The highlight of the villa is the bedroom, with a huge circular rotating bed below a mirrored ceiling. Several of the girls were lounging on the bed and I joined them to relax in the ridiculous fantasy of it all while getting some photos taken.

There were quite a few famous poker players there including JC Tran, Chino Rheem, Phil Galfond, Brian Townsend, Kara Scott, Devilfish, Neil Channing and his whole Blackbelt Poker crew and probably many more that I’ve forgotten about. Amazingly Bond18 was not present. How could that happen?

I was also surprised to see Annette_15 there in a fabulous purple dress. We’ve known each other for a while and I joked with her about her being underage and blagging her way into the party (nobody was checking ID). When I first met Annette around 2.5 years ago she didn’t drink, but now that she’s been around the poker business for a few years she’s turned into quite a drinker. I guess it does that to us all, as the drinks were certainly flowing very freely at this party.

The evening seemed to fly by as I chatted with various people, danced with the bunnies and drank lots of vodka, until they finally started to clear us out at 3am. I’m sorry I’ve not got any Bond18 style shagging in the shower stories to tell you about this party, but it was a fabulous evening with lots of fun surrounded by beautiful women and interesting people (although only Liv, Kara and Annette fit in both categories). In the packed elevator on the way down, an attractive girl got out on her own. Devilfish, never one to miss an opportunity, suddenly decided to jump out and chase after her.

Jonathan took quite a few pictures and if I get any photos through from him then I’ll add them to the blog later. Now it’s just one more day of relaxation at the condo before playing the Main Event on Friday.