I haven't played much poker in these days due to some RL works I wanted to finish. However I am tempted to plan my poker career so I looked at the stats on my Poker Tracker.
For $12/180, I have the following stats and calculations:
* Total 2,133 games played
* Mean = $6.967 or 58.06% ROI
* Standard deviation = $85.644 or 7.14 buy-ins
* For 95% range, my true mean will be between $3.33 - $10.60, or 27.77% - 88.35% ROI
I didn't know the possible range is still that big and I have 2.5% chance that I have below 28% true ROI. If unluckily I have only about 30% true ROI, I would be pissed.
If I am going to play 1,000 games per month, I will expect to win $6,967, with the mean in the range of $3,330 and $10,600.
If I am going to play 1,500 games per month, I will expect to win $10,450, with the mean in the range of $4,995 and $15,900.
Since the Chinese New Year, my luck online completely changed and I won tournaments after tournaments and have profited over $4k since 26/1/09. However during this time I received a bad news that I am no longer needed for my company and I will be out of job in March because there is certain regulation that the company no longer requires to have such a position. I could find a job but with the economic concession I don't believe I can get some attractive salary package and if I take another job it is more likely I will have less time to play poker. The alternative is to go to play poker full time and with a large volume of games I should be able to maintain the income, which is job + poker. However I do not know what will be ahead if I play full time, such as:
* Can I overcome the feeling if I am in a huge downswing or long time of not profiting like the period before Chinese New Year?
* Is my health able to play long time without impairing my game too much. I don't have much sickness, but I don't think I am a very healthy person. I will probably require to have regular exercise.
* Will I have less ROI when I play a huge volume? I currently max. 8 tabling playing tournaments and I feel it is the max. no. of tables I can play simultaneously that I can still play flop and if I don't play flop like some of the high volume regulars I believe my ROI will be decreased significantly.