Archive Feb 2009: lamma888

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Some stats

I haven't played much poker in these days due to some RL works I wanted to finish. However I am tempted to plan my poker career so I looked at the stats on my Poker Tracker.

For $12/180, I have the following stats and calculations:

* Total 2,133 games played
* Mean = $6.967 or 58.06% ROI
* Standard deviation = $85.644 or 7.14 buy-ins
* For 95% range, my true mean will be between $3.33 - $10.60, or 27.77% - 88.35% ROI

I didn't know the possible range is still that big and I have 2.5% chance that I have below 28% true ROI. If unluckily I have only about 30% true ROI, I would be pissed.

If I am going to play 1,000 games per month, I will expect to win $6,967, with the mean in the range of $3,330 and $10,600.

If I am going to play 1,500 games per month, I will expect to win $10,450, with the mean in the range of $4,995 and $15,900.

Consideration of going full time pro

Since the Chinese New Year, my luck online completely changed and I won tournaments after tournaments and have profited over $4k since 26/1/09. However during this time I received a bad news that I am no longer needed for my company and I will be out of job in March because there is certain regulation that the company no longer requires to have such a position. I could find a job but with the economic concession I don't believe I can get some attractive salary package and if I take another job it is more likely I will have less time to play poker. The alternative is to go to play poker full time and with a large volume of games I should be able to maintain the income, which is job + poker. However I do not know what will be ahead if I play full time, such as:

* Can I overcome the feeling if I am in a huge downswing or long time of not profiting like the period before Chinese New Year?

* Is my health able to play long time without impairing my game too much. I don't have much sickness, but I don't think I am a very healthy person. I will probably require to have regular exercise.

* Will I have less ROI when I play a huge volume? I currently max. 8 tabling playing tournaments and I feel it is the max. no. of tables I can play simultaneously that I can still play flop and if I don't play flop like some of the high volume regulars I believe my ROI will be decreased significantly.

Grand Waldo Weekly 31/1/08

This was my 4th MTTs I played in Grand Waldo. Unlike the previous ones I revealed my online identity, which probably may not be good because the others could view me as a new live player since I am still not totally comfortable with live games yet. I still made the error of putting single chip intending to raise but forgot to announce raise. However I think I will become better. I still like playing live poker because I am seeing the real people and unlike playing online which I rarely chat because of multi-tabling. Also people seem to be more friendly than online, probably because we don't know the other players. And I feel less likely to get depressed when getting bad beats. I don't punch the table, wanting to break my notebook, etc.

In one hand I was limping 22 UTG and the player sitting 2nd seat on my left raised 2x and there were quite a few players who played that hand and I called. Flop comes like A 3 2 (I wasn't sure if A was on flop or turn). I found my memory isn't very good now which is the reason I can never play stud well....). I bet and the PF raiser called and everyone fold. On turn I bet 2k without many chips left. The player asked me "Why so big" and push me all in. I called immediately and he showed TT, wow. I thought he was donk but he later revealed himself as Jason Ho who is a Stoxpoker coach and he wasn't very serious when he shoved me.

I won some post-flop without showdown later, but then I kept losing all in preflop, albeit small each one of them. And finally I was going out. The final hand Celina Lin raised at early position and I looked down to see ATo in button and I shoved with around 3k chips at 200/400 and she showed AJ. I think this was a bad call. It might be a good call the player wasn't a pro and was raising loose but if it was raised from a pro at UTG at higher blinds my ATo is unlikely to be ahead. I don't know what I was thinking when I called that.

Anyway, I hope I can win in these tournaments soon.

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