So I check my calendar late in the day and realize that I’m supposed to be at a concert/fundraiser at the Japanese consulate here in LA in a little over an hour. I contemplate blowing it off, but I know the host is expecting me so I resign myself to the gig. As it turns out, I didn’t have a suit on so I needed to jam home from my office, change and make it back across town, in traffic, by 6:30 or so.

Anyway, I make my way home, pull on a suit and head back out. Now my car came off lease a couple of weeks ago but I haven’t had a chance to find a new rig, so I’ve been rolling around in some rental car that Enterprise dropped off. Anyway, I’m moving along the 10 freeway and I flip down the visor to check my tie. Bam! A gigantic spider drops into my lap and scampers down my leg to the floor. Holy crap!

Ok, this was not some Little Miss Moffet spider…not some daddy long legs “I can run across the surface of water” whisper of a spider…no, in fact, this monster was just slightly smaller than a tarantula I once saw while hiking in Big Sur. Big brown body, furry legs…straight out of Raiders of the Lost Ark. I have no idea where he came from or how the damn visor even stayed in place with this beast on top of it, but in any event, he was now milling around the floorboards.

I grew up in Maine and am not a city boy—I’ve had plenty of critters in between me and where I’m headed—but when you go to check your look and a spider the size of a small dog drops in your lap in a dark car at 60 mph, it’s unsettling. It’s like having the Starbucks girl tell you your coffee is ready and tossing a live snake at you instead of your nonfat latte. WTF!

I’m in traffic in the fast lane, so I turn on the interior lights, work my way over to the shoulder, pull over and jump out. I look back in and hunt the beast down. Ok, there he is staring at me from the console like Kong on the Empire State Building. Whatever, dude, I’m tight for time—I sweep the shaggy bastard out of my car with the rental agreement, collect my wits and head on to the consulate.

Later at the consulate, I’m sitting at a table with one of the artists for the evening, the head of a local bank, a newspaper rep and, as it turns out, some hitter from Lexus of Southern California. After a couple of speeches, a brief series of performances by three young pianists (all cute Asian girls, btw) and some pretty amazing sushi (it was the Japanese consulate after all), I recount my rental car/spider story to my tablemates. The Lexus guy was like “Uh, call me tomorrow and we’ll hook you up.” Ok, you know what, maybe I will. Did I mention my wife’s car is off-lease in two months’ as well?

It’s all about table draw and seat selection, boys!

Well, it’s been crazy busy lately, and it seems like the days just run together. I’ve had a couple of trips back to New York (the day job), I just got back from the Global Gaming Expo show (aka G2E) in Las Vegas, I have a meeting in Orange County tomorrow and then on to Fresno tomorrow night to pick up my winner’s bracelet in the 3rd Annual Ace of Diamonds tournament at Club One Casino. Next week, I'm heading back home to Maine for the holiday week. And after that, I’ll be hosting a home game at the Commerce Casino to take that service for a testdrive and report back. In any event, lots going on.

Global Gaming Expo (aka G2E)

I wanted to post the results of a recent effort I undertook for the benefit of some of the guys out there trying to build bankrolls, but first, a word on G2E. G2E is the largest gaming show—it’s held in Las Vegas and pretty much every vendor to casinos is there pitching their wares. I was out there researching player tracking systems for a project I’ve been working on. A few minutes after I got there, I noticed a forum discussion starting with Gary Loveman (CEO of Harrahs), former Senator Alfonse D’Amato (now head of the Poker Player’s Alliance) and Terry Lanni, the head of the MGM/Mirage. I sat in and listen for about a half an hour. There were no major insights from the session, but the consensus was that legalized online poker is coming.

Walking the show, I noticed at least three vendors (maybe four) of automated poker tables. Lederer and Ferguson were pitching one of them (Lederer was looking particularly freakish, weird and not very young) and there was activity at all three or four booths, but from what I’ve seen locally in Southern California (Hollywood Park et al.), the early results with automated tables are nothing special. I think there’s a role for them in a smaller 2-3 table club or in larger clubs for single-table tournaments (satellites) or heads up play. But, for the most part, it’s still early in the game for the automated table guys.

Overall, it’s clear from looking around that poker is still the red-headed afterthought of the gaming industry. The show is still all about the slots and financial services (ATMs, cash advances, etc.), although technology is taking more and more floor space every year. Oddly enough, relatively few web services are on display and given the generally poor state of casino websites and how much more important the web is to all companies marketing plans, that’s bound to change. It’s amazing to me how many casinos will acknowledge that 1) their website is lousy and 2) acknowledge it’s the first place visitors go when planning a trip…yet do NOTHING to improve it. Even sophisticated marketers seem to whiff their site. See, for example, www.wynnlasvegas.com. Steve, tell us about the restaurant again…no, please, we want to here it again...flash is fine…

A few thousand hands at low stakes NL

Anyway, on to the "few thousand hands" part of the post. I’ve read a number of blogs in which guys are trying to build a bankroll but suffer swings and get discouraged. I may be being a bit harsh here, but I’d argue that a lot of those “swings” are actually the result of erratic play. You can, in fact, grind out a decent earn and build a nice little bankroll through aggressive, but thoughtful play. Even on Full Tilt.

Post-UIGEA, I withdrew most on my online bankroll (call me a little old lady) but still had a few dollars in my Full Tilt account. I had some IM chats with Landlord79 in which I critiqued some of his plays and figured it would probably be more compelling if I logged a few thousand hands and posted the results.

I started with about $100 overall and sat admittedly underrolled in $.10/$.25 NL playing very basic TAG strategy. After I had a few hundred dollars, I moved up to $.25/$.50 NL to bang out another 10,000 hands. The results:


PT Stats



Graph




In most simplistic terms, my strategy could be summed up as follows:

Respect early position raises.

Raise pre-flop in position and continue if 3 or fewer players.

Avoid stacking off with over-pairs to limp/callers.

If I think I’m beat, fold.

Repeat ad nauseum.

Of course, I had my share of mental lapses and dusted off my stack light. See hands 8500-9500. I’m telling you right now those weren’t so well-played. I also had my share of brutal two outers, runner runner suckouts and not so brutal but nauseating nonetheless 2:1 favorites getting turned or rivered. I think I played great between hands 11,000-13,500 but, as you can see, had nothing to show for it.

As a practical matter, all the hands were played in full ring on Full Tilt. A fair number of the hands were single or double table play while doing other things. At most, I multi-tabled 8 tables, but those were relatively short focused sessions. I can play pretty well at a rate of about 300 hands per hour. Above that, it’s hard to say.

In any event, the point is I managed to build up a what would be a workable bankroll from a modest amount of starting capital. It’s not a huge sample size, and I'm not saying it's a great living, but it’s enough to show that a lower stakes player can build a bankroll without wild swings. You just need to stop spewing and start thinking. And raise in position, please. Note: if anyone wants more PT details or wants to comment, feel free to post me.

Anyway, that's it until I report back from the Club One event. Before I sign off, though, I’ve seen the new TwoRags home and blog pages. Very, very nice. I haven’t been this excited since the Patriots put the Colts on season tilt two weeks ago. Ha!

You know that feeling when you’re watching High Stakes Poker and a guy you used to hang out with pulls up a chair, drops a couple of hundred grand on the felt and promptly stings Phil Hellmuth for another seventy? No? Well, that’s what happened to me about a month ago. Now most guys might call him up and try to scam their way onto the show, but not me. Instead, I shook Mike down for an interview!

Mike was a Stanford classmate of mine and is now a hedge fund manager who lives in Los Angeles with his wife, one son and two daughters. You may have seen him on Episodes 2-7 of season 4 of High Stakes Poker in which he also stacked Eli Elezra with a set and Sammy Farha twice (both times with top pair). He did manage to dust off 100 grand to Elezra in his last hand but shrugs it off later in this interview.





In August 2007, Mike won Event #21 of the Legends of Poker $2k buy-in event, besting a final table that included tournament regulars Jimmy Tran and Shannon Shorr. It was his first hold’em tournament ever. I hate guys like Silent Mike.





A couple of us had the chance to spend some time with Mike early this week and ask him some questions about his recent poker experiences.


EdmondDantes
Hey…nice to see you, Mike. Congrats on your TV appearance and your Legends of Poker win. I have to tell you, I almost spit Diet Coke out my nose when you walked on the set and sat down.

Silent Mike
Thanks, I had a lot of fun.

Nath
So, what drew you to poker originally? Do you play a lot in LA?

Silent Mike
I’ve always enjoyed games ever since I was a kid. I like analyzing risk and developing what I think will be winning strategies. I played a little bit in college and b-school years ago. There was some dingy card room near the Stanford campus, I can’t even remember the name of it. In LA, I just got hooked up in a home game and that’s pretty much all I play.

Bond18
How exactly did you end up getting invited to the High Stake Poker game? And are you going back next year?

Silent Mike
I met Mori, the producer, in a home game I play in and he invited me to play, so I figured why not? I’m not sure what the plans are for next season, but if I get invited back, I would love to play again. It was a crack-up and my kids got a kick out of seeing their dad on TV.

EdmondDantes
Tell us about the format. How long did you play?

Silent Mike
I think I played ten hours total – four the first day and six the second day. They obvious edit out some hands.

Bond18
We assume you watched the episodes in which you played. Can you comment on the difference between what we see and what actually goes on? For example, it looks to us as if Jennifer rarely plays a hand. Is this true, or does it just appear this way from the editing? Approximately what percentage of the hands do they actually show?

Silent Mike
Well, as you probably know, most hands don’t get all that exciting and they select the bigger hands. The tighter players will get less action when they do play so the hands are not quite as entertaining, I guess. I’m pretty sure Jennifer played more hands than those they showed. They’re just picking ones that have some drama to them.

EdmondDantes
Any fun hands we didn’t get to see?

Silent Mike
I actually got deuce/seven six times and bluffed it through four of the times. I think they only showed two.

EdmondDantes
Nice.

Bond18
You looked very comfortable at the table with these big name pros. Did you have much experience playing in games this big and with players of this caliber?

Silent Mike
For some reason, I always feel comfortable playing games. This is obviously a big game but once you get into the rhythm of it, it’s just like any other game. Plus, I’ve played in games with some of these guys before so, other than the cameras, it wasn’t that uncomfortable. ‘Cept, of course, for my bust-out hand.

Nath
From what I saw you seemed to play well, but you've got to be aware that the "pros" consider you a "fish", right? How does that translate the table? Do they make it a friendly place to play or are there some guys who make it obvious that you're the reason they're there?

Silent Mike
Like I said, I enjoy the rhythm, and the interaction between people is a big part of that. I actually liked everyone, even Hellmuth when he wasn’t telling me how horrible I was. [Laughs] I imagine I am a fish relative to these guys who play everyday. I feel like I can play reasonably well, but I definitely don’t have the experience these guys have—particularly putting guys on hands.

Bond18
Did you have a specific strategy going in? From what we saw, you seemed to be willing to mix it up and play a wide range of cards. Is this simply the way it looked because of the editing and hands they showed or were you really playing this loose? If so, what was your thinking here?

Silent Mike
For me, cash games and tournaments are very different. In cash games, I do play a fairly wide range of hands because often times sketchy hands yield the big payoffs. Obviously, it’s important to change your ranges based on position and the players you suspect will be playing the hand post flop.

Bond18
Nice call with the JTo against Hellmuth (Episode 3 (1/4) at 2:50 below). I think the turn call is really standard, but the river was tough. One thing to consider is going into the turn when you check you need to have a plan. When you quickly check, then Phil bets, and you think it over a ton, you're telling Phil you're not really sure of your hand strength. In the future, consider pausing before you check, coming up with a rough plan for Phil's action, be it check, bet of 1/3rd pot, 2/3rds pot, full pot, things like that. Otherwise, you give him to good an idea of where you're at…unless of course you're setting him up to bluff the river with what's basically acting.

Silent Mike
I appreciate the advice. I was definitely not trying to induce a bluff. However, I thought the river an easier call than the turn. Remember the deuce/seven side bet changes your range of possibilities. By the time I called, I felt like there was a good chance I had the best of it. With that board, there were a lot of great possibilities, and his betting did not make sense to me. If he had made a straight or a set, I would have expected a bet that he wanted called. Plus he couldn’t be that confident top pair was good there either. His bet was too big if he really wanted a call.


Episode 3 1/4




EdmondDantes
Looks like you missed a bet in the AJo hand (Epsiode 3 2/4 at about 3:40 below) where you flopped two pair against Matusow but check the river.

Silent Mike
Absolutely.

Bond18
Yeah, did you really think he'd check a better hand to you 3 times?

Silent Mike
Probably not. But remember, at the time, I had been getting good starting cards and playing a bunch of hands. For some reason, I was afraid he might be trapping and I was still just getting oriented to the game.


Episode 3 2/4




LakeofFire
In the hand where you held AK v Matusow's AQ (Episode 3 4/4 at about 3:00), you raised pre-flop to $3k and he called.

3AJ flop. You bet $6k and he raised another $10k. You called.

Matusow bet out on the 8 turn for $15k and you called. And then bet the Q on the river for $30k.

Can you walk us through your thinking? Worried about a set or two pair? Why didn't you re-raise the turn with a flush draw on the board?


Episode 3 4/4




Silent Mike
I actually put him on an ace with a weaker kicker and figured I’d probably get paid more letting him bet into me if he didn’t have the two pair made yet. I don’t remember thinking for a second he might be on a flush draw. I also wanted to mix up my play. I had been the aggressor in a number of hand before that, and I thought it might be good to show I could be a bit more patient.

Bond18
When you raise Phil Laak on the A63 flop with AT (same Episode 3 4/4 above at about 5:00) are you comfortable getting it all in against him? Otherwise, why are you raising on a flop of this texture?

Silent Mike
Like I said, the deuce/seven changes the texture of the game. I would categorize that raise as more of an exploratory raise. I’d rather find out then what he might have, plus I had position on him. Obviously, I would have had a hard time calling a re-raise.

LakeofFire
Walk us through the thinking when Farha played the hand dark (Episode 5 4/4 at about 6:00). What range of hands did you put Sammy on when he moved all in on an A high board? It was the hand where you called his shove with A9o.


Episode 5 4/4




Silent Mike
Sammy was playing extremely loose, and I figured he would expect me to make a move on him with position no matter what. I figured I was stronger than he suspected and decided it was worth a call. Basically, I was playing the player more than playing the hand.

Bond18
Did you find playing mostly straightforward in this game would be highly profitable due to everyone constantly trying to out maneuver each other with fancy plays?

Silent Mike
I played two days and the tables were very different. A straightforward style would have been most successful the second day and that’s exactly how Negreanu played it. Needless to say, he’s pretty good.

EdmondDantes
We saw you outplay Hellmuth and stack Elezra and Farha. Are you aware that if you had hit the open-ended straight draw on Hellmuth (when he had the set and you had 32 in Episode 4) the poker world would be building a shrine to you?

Silent Mike
It would have been nice.

EdmondDantes
Ok, I have to ask. Your bust-out hand (Episode 7 2/4 about 10:15), the KQo over call with Eli Elezra still to act, looked pretty awful from my couch. Was there something else going on there that we couldn’t see? Late for a flight?

Silent Mike
I wish I could use that as an excuse. I had already announced that it was my last hand, and I wish I had left one hand earlier. That said, I don’t feel that it was quite as poor as it looked on TV. With 55k in the pot already, I knew Sammy would make a move with anything and I felt that I had ten outs (4 tens, 3 queens, and 3 kings) against him. Plus, with us both all in, we’d have an opportunity to negotiate some sort of deal. Jamie had folded out of turn, and I knew Elezra only had slightly more than Sammy.

I went all in thinking I could possibly get Ely off a hand by looking stronger, and if he made a call, I still had four outs there. He made a good call, and I looked like a donkey thinking my gut shot was worth an all-in bet. However, if Ely had folded, I believe I would have had positive expected value for calling Sammy with $125k in the pot. As it turned out, Sammy had one of my tens and I put $75k into the pot that only had $35k of expected value.

Needless to say, I needed a lot of things to break my way for my all-in move to have had positive expected value, and then I needed to get lucky on the turn or the river. It’s not my proudest moment, and it was probably time for me to leave.


Editor's note

If you're curious, Mike’s bust-out hand develops in Episode 7 2/4 at about 10:00.

Episode 7 2/4



Mike raised $3k with KQ.

Jamie Gold called with 64.

Eli Elezra raised to $13k with AA

Sammy Farha called with T7.

Mike and Jamie both called. Pot = $53,000

Flop was J 7 9.

Sammy moved in from the blind for $67,000. Total pot was $120,000.

Next to act. Mike says “One sec.” and Jamie folds out of turn thinking Mike has folded. It’s $67k to Mike to call; he thinks for a second and MOVES in for his last $75k with two overs and an inside straight draw.


Episode 7 3/4




Against Sammy alone, Mike was about 30% to win the hand from the flop. Interestingly, if Sammy had moved in with only an open-ended straight draw (86, for example), Mike would’ve been a 2 to 1 favorite to win the hand versus Sammy alone. But assuming Sammy’s moving in with a pair and a draw, a draw or a monster, you can figure Mike’s EV using our Evaluator as seen below.





As you can see in the calculation above, at best, it’s a breakeven proposition. If you want to run it yourself, try the TwoRags EV tools..

The bigger problem, of course, is that Eli is still to act with his aces and calls the additional $75k. Total pot is $271k-ish.

With Eli’s AA in the mix, Mike is a big dog…

AA 61% > T7 26% > KQ 12%

and needs running kings or queens or a jack. They run it twice, there’s no help to Mike either time and he’s out, down $2k for the two-day session.

*End of editor's note*


Bond18
How much did you win in this game in total?

Silent Mike
I won $170k the first day and lost $172k the second day. I finished down two grand for the sessions.

BadgerPro
Ok, how about some player observations…

Bond18
Yeah, what players were you most impressed with? What players were you least impressed with?

Silent Mike
First of all, I like everyone. Even Hellmuth surprisingly. I didn’t mix it up much with Daniel, but I think he is incredible. All those guys have had great success and I wouldn’t like to make any conclusion based on ten hours of play which I think has almost no statistical significance. Ask me after 1000 hours. Mori, you listening? Invite me back!

Hellmuth…as self-centered as he seems?

Silent Mike
Probably, but he’s actually pretty funny if you don’t let him get to you.

Bond18
Matusow…would you stake him?

Silent Mike
I would be unlikely to stake anyone. My view is that if you’re that good, why do you need to be staked?

BadgerPro
Laak...was Jennifer Tilly sweating him?
No.

Bond18
Harman…did she even play any hands?

Silent Mike
She played pretty tight which was probably the best strategy at that table.

BadgerPro
Farha…was he nice about you taking his money?

Silent Mike
Farha & Elezra are both fun to play with. But you honestly never know what Farha’s playing. Eli’s a little more straightforward.

Bond18
Daniel Negreanu?

Silent Mike
I didn’t play too many pots with him, but from what I saw there and have seen on other episodes, he’s pretty good at reading people. And I did learn that he’s a vegan.

Bond18
I read somewhere you have had experience playing in LA with Jamie Gold. How would you rate his game? Is he as irritating as guys say he is?

Silent Mike
I like Jamie, and he has never been anything but nice to me. His game is very entertaining to say the least. He can pretty much have any hand in any situation. And he definitely likes to bluff.

Bond18
If you could punch one player in this game with impunity, how many times would you end up punching Hellmuth?

Silent Mike
None. I actually have a lot of respect for him. Phil obviously thinks highly of his own game, but, you have to admit, he’s got some game. I think the fact that he can get in your head even when he is losing is a part of why he is so good. Plus, everybody else at the table was teasing him when he was talking about me in the third person, so it was easier to take.

Bond18
Come on, how big a fish is Bob Safai?

EdmondDantes
Ok, enough. You’ll have to forgive Bond18. He likes controversy, and you’re obviously trying to get invited back.

Silent Mike
I love Bobby. He plays in the home game sometimes. He’s a good guy, and I know he could have some big nights. He also won $200k for the two days while I ended up losing $2k so I can’t really call him the “fish.” [Laughs]

Nath
How often do you talk to other poker players outside of the game setting?

Silent Mike
Not that much. Everybody pretty much has their own life.

BadgerPro
Let’s rate the cocktail service. Blonde or brunette?

Silent Mike
I think my wife is hotter than either waitress.

EdmondDantes
Nice save. Ok, tell us about the Legends of Poker event. How did you happen to play that particular event? Was it really your first ever?

Silent Mike
I never played a tournament until this year. After HSP, I got it in my head that I’d like to see if I could play in a tournament format. With three kids, a wife, and a full time job, it’s difficult to fit a big multi-day tournaments into my schedule, and I didn’t have much interest in the $30 buy-in type event. The WSOP event that fit my schedule was the Omaha $10k buy-in. I decided to try it even though I’m not an Omaha player. I busted out with five minutes left in the first day but really enjoyed the challenge and felt like making the top 20% was a good start.

The next tournament I played was the Legends of Poker event, and I clearly had some good luck. I haven’t had a chance to play another one and I didn’t get to play the WPT event at the Bike even though I won a seat by winning the $2k buy-in event. I’m looking forward to playing another big event, though. It was a blast.

EdmondDantes
Any interesting hands on the path to the final table? Any gross suck-outs to get there?

Silent Mike
I never really was short stacked throughout and I was the chip leader going into the final two tables. Probably the biggest hand was cracking pocket aces with a flopped two pair. I was in the big blind and the aces had only made a minimum raise so I sort of fell into it.

EdmondDantes
Jimmy Tran and Shannon Shorr were at your final table. Any observations?

Silent Mike
Not really. Like I said, I’m new to tournaments. And everyone was new to me.

EdmondDantes
Ok, a couple of the guys want to know what you do.

Silent Mike
Shoot.

Nath
What’s a hedge fund manager do? In other words, what do you actually do for a living?

Silent Mike
I manage money for high net worth individuals and institutions. We try to put together a portfolio where our longs outperform our shorts. So far, we’ve been pretty good at it. I pretty much spend my day analyzing investments and positions and figuring out where we’re going to invest next.

Nath
What do you think you've learned in the business world that translates to poker?

Silent Mike
With investing, you want to develop edges and investing patterns that lead to repeated success. You also want to make investments appropriate to your risk tolerance and the conviction you have in your edge. Needless to say, these have relevance to poker strategy.

Nath
What do you think about all the kids who currently play for a living? Any advice you would give to them, coming into a relatively large sum of money at a young age, as to how to manage it for their future?

Silent Mike
I would think playing poker full-time would be a tough life. And if you make some dough, save it. It’s a lot easier to lose than it is to make.

Nath
How much effort do you put in to try to improve your poker?

Silent Mike
I like the game and have gone through different phases in my life when I have read a number of books and run numbers on various scenarios. Most recently, I’ve been trying to work on my tournament strategy. Historically, I’ve been strictly a cash game player.

LakeofFire
What poker books have you read? Any ones you thought were particularly good?

Silent Mike
I found Harrington’s books on tournament play to be particularly helpful to me.

EdmondDantes
What’s your favorite casino/card room? Favorite game?

Silent Mike
I don’t play much in card clubs. Just home games mostly. And on TV. [Laughs]

EdmondDantes
Ever play online at all?

Silent Mike
Never for real money.

EdmondDantes
Play money? Seriously?

Silent Mike
Yup. The only hold’em tournament I played prior to the Legends event was a play money event on Full Tilt.

EdmondDantes
Ha!…that’s classic. What’s next? Any tournaments coming up?

Silent Mike
I would like to play some more tournaments but haven’t found the time yet. I’m definitely up for it, though. Let me know next time you’re going to Las Vegas and we’ll mix it up.

EdmondDantes
Definitely. Well, listen, thanks for spending a few minutes with us. We appreciate the look from the inside of the HSP game and the LoP event. If you get invited back, don’t forget your friends at TwoRags!

Silent Mike
No problem. See you at the tables!

Ok, so I haven't updated since Swami54 ran over me in the unofficial 2R last longer. But that doesn't mean I haven't been busy. Oh no, in fact it's been just this side of chaos at chez Edmond.

First, I was in NY last week and took Adanthar and his wife on a little tour of my stomping grounds when he had a moment in between AP scandal updates. For those interested, here's a little taste of the tour as presented by an award-winning film-maker.

Note by Note - The Making of L1037

By the way, that trailer features a comment by Harry Connick, Jr., a New Orleans native and jazz pianist. You may have seen him in Will & Grace. See him in concert...with a girl.

Second, I got my wife an iPhone for her recent birthday and while the activation of said phone was a breeze, the upgrade of her computer (because it didn't have USB 2.0 port) was less so. Ended up getting her and new MacBook Pro and after a couple of days of screwing around with iTunes libraries and a other file transfers, that little nightmare's over. On the plus side, she likes her phone. She did, though, ask me if I thought it was too big for the case I got her. I was like..."Are you seriously asking me if your phone looks fat in that case?" She's the best.

Third, had to work on a couple of letters of rec ...one for a guy who used to work for me--last minute, London School of Economics...he's now in. And then one for a friend's son's PRESCHOOL application. That admission is pending. LA's a sick place.

Finally, we've been working on lots of cool new site improvements. Over the next few weeks---server willing--you'll see some great features for live tournament updating, exclusive video/instructional content, an interview with a High Stakes Poker player and a home page redesign to improve site navigation. I haven't had this much trouble sitting still since Season 1 of Prison Break. Seriously.

Edmond

PokerStars is hosting the World Blogger Championship of Online Poker, a free-roll to poker players who blog. First prize is a $12k entry into their Caribbean Adventure tournament. Even better, all final table participants will have their blog posted on 'Stars. If you've been blogging for more than two months, you're eligible to play the event. Just follow the link below and sign up. You'll need to include a link to your blog and then follow the directions to post the code into your blog. If you don't blog on TwoRags.com, it's never too late to sign-up and it's FREE. Just register using the link at the top right of this page.

It's not personal.

In the Godfather: Part II, there’s a scene where Hyman Roth discusses the murder of his Las Vegas friend Moe Green with Michael Corleone.

“There was this kid I grew up with - he was younger than me. Sorta looked up to me - you know. We did our first work together - worked our way out of the street. Things were good, we made the most of it. During Prohibition - we ran molasses into Canada - made a fortune - you father, too. As much as anyone, I loved him - and trusted him. Later on he had an idea - to build a city out of a desert stop-over for GI's on the way to the West Coast. That kid's name was Moe Green - and the city he invented was Las Vegas. This was a great man - a man of vision and guts. And there isn't even a plaque - or a signpost - or a statue of him in that town! Someone put a bullet through his eye. No one knows who gave the order - when I heard it, I wasn't angry; I knew Moe - I knew he was head-strong, talking loud, saying stupid things. So when he turned up dead - I let it go. And I said to myself, this is the business we've chosen - I didn't ask who gave the order - because it had nothing to do with business!

You can see the last line here…

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Nice hand, sir!

The other day a friend of mine (newer player) called me up steaming. He had just left the Hustler Casino following a nasty beat after he had moved all in pre-flop with KK v villain’s 87o. He said, “I just looked at this guy. I mean who calls an all-in with 87o for two hundred dollars? I had only been there like 10 minutes but I was so pissed I just picked up and left.”

I said to him, “Let me get this right. You left a game with a guy on your right who was willing to call off his stack when he was, at best, a 2 to 1 dog against an unknown player? That’s stupid, sure…but you’re even more stupid for leaving. Instead of calling for your keys, you should have been calling for chips!”

I went further. “Listen. Yeah, you had a dream spot there, but the ugly truth is that 20% of the time you’re going get cracked. And when there’s a lot at stake, it’s gonna suck. You see the KK v 87o and mentally book the win at 100%, but 20 times out of 100, the chips go elsewhere. If you can’t come to grips with that, DON’T PLAY THE GAME. Seriously.”

After a little self-reflection on his part and additional love from me, “What? You want 8 guys in there leaning on you with good cards all the time? Wake up.”, I think he got it. I felt a little bit like Alec Baldwin in Glengarry Glen Ross* but he’s gonna be a better player for it. My conscience is clear.

"Running bad" you say?

A little while later, I was talking to another friend who was complaining that he’s been “running bad.” What is that? A downswing? Variance? Come on. It’s just the math at work and the math works the same for everybody. If we all played the same, our short term swings would vary but our long-term results graph would look the same. The fact that our longer term results differ means one thing—some players are good (or constantly improving) and others aren’t. You’re either playing well, marginally or badly. The math is just there sorting it all out.

When a player believes he’s “running badly”, I think he should ask “Am I playing well or poorly?” and be HONEST with himself. If he’s making good decisions, his concerns should be bankroll management, game selection and getting more hands or tournaments in. If he’s making sub par decisions or doesn’t honestly know if he’s playing well or poorly, he should take the time to study, review hands and retool his game. The only player that I see on televised events consistently talking about “running bad” is Mike Matusow. Funny, most of the decisions I see him make on TV are horrible. He “runs badly”? Gee, what a shocker.

It's just business.

In contrast, I have a friend who used to be a professional blackjack player. He and his partners would look for favorable casino conditions, play basic strategy and watch for edges. When the deck was favorable, they’d press their edge as much as possible and let the math sort it out. Of course, they had downswings but there was no talk of “running bad”. They would shrug variance off as part of the business. To manage downswings, they relied on bankroll management and simply looked for MORE opportunities to put money to work with an edge. They made a great living.

In short, Hyman Roth got it right. He didn’t bitch when a good friend got shot because he knew from an early age it was the nature of the business. Hence, he avoided the mental anguish of the emotional swings of his business. Harsh? Yeah, but the applicability is there for a successful poker player. Bad beats, downswings, variance…whatever. Learn to deal with it or find another way to make a living. It’s the business we’ve chosen.

Edmond


Postscript...

* In the movie Glengarry Glen Ross, there’s a scene in which Blake (played by Alec Baldwin) is sent in to kick a group of under-performing salesman into gear. For most of the movie, the salesmen bemoan the working conditions, the lifestyle and the quality of the leads they get from headquarters. Blake will have none of it.

It’s a great scene with classic lines and must see viewing for anyone in any kind of sales. If you haven’t quoted “Put down that coffee. Coffee is for CLOSERS only.”, you need to find a spot for it!

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On Friday last, I was inspired by Pechorin's recent run through Europe and weighed my immediate options for a live poker tourney fix. Hmmm….I could head down to Redondo Beach for the soft home tournament I deal for a friend. Alternatively, lakong wanted me to come with him to the California State Poker Championships. The CSPC is a bigger field of better players (obv), but on a Friday afternoon that West LA to Commerce run is an even worse drive than the one to Redondo Beach. My home game host also pitched that he’s restocked the Jack Daniels, pushed back the start time to let me duck the worst of Friday afternoon traffic and adjusted the blind structure like I’ve suggested. Ok, Redondo it is.

New & Improved

We start with 3000 chips (5/10 blinds, 15 minute levels), run about 4 hours and pay 3 spots. If we finish early and there’s interest, we run a second one. I serve as the principal dealer and ad hoc floor person by virtue of my ability to shuffle, calculate side pots and interpret the dead button rule, all while under the influence of alcohol. Friday, we drew about 12 guys and ran a $100 freeze-out with 50% to the winner.

As I mentioned in earlier posts, several of the players in the game lack fundamentals and make plays that are hilarious or nauseating depending on whether or not they hit their 4-outer. One player in particular has, to date, shown little or no sense of hand values or judgment in the times we’ve played. That said, he’s a nice guy and anxious to learn, so I’ve given him a couple of basic books to get a better handle on the game.

Last night the improvements in his play were noticeable. He’s playing fewer hands, betting his good hands (he used to slow play any decent hand) and showing down quality. Unfortunately, another player in our group (the host) didn’t really pick up on it.

Midway through the tournament with the blinds at 150/300, UTG raised to 1000 and it folded around to the DB (our host), who called. Small blind folded and New & Improved player announced a re-raise to 3000. UTG min-raiser promptly re-raised all-in and DB… called. WTF? They show down…

QQ (UTG) v 66 (host) v JJ (New & Improved)

The queens held and our host was out. New & Improved player had both players covered courtesy of an earlier boat, so he survived the beat and continued.

On the break, the host came up to me, “My call with the sixes was a bad call, right?” Not one to sugarcoat, I told him that no, it was moronic. “Well you know New & Improved. He could have anything. I figured he’d have something stupid like 97 or KJ.” Are you brain dead? He’s playing different tonight—tighter, more card and board aware—and he’s shown great hands all night. And what about the UTG player?

Follow your head...or don't

In any event, he was out and I was still in. I continued to deal and play ABC poker and, as expected, the field thinned to 6 or so after a couple of hours. The key point in the tournament came with the blinds at 150/300 when it was limped to me in the big blind with K5o. Flop is a nifty KT5 and I led out with a half-pot bet, about 20% of my stack. One caller to the dealer button, who shoved. I called, of course, and the other player shrugged and said “I guess I have to call.”

We show K5 v KJ v AQ and I’m dodging fishhooks for the win.

Hold…I burn and turn a Q…hold…I burn and river a blank. K5 goot!

Down to four players, I was a slight chip leader but everyone was pretty evenly stacked. I dealt out a new hand and as players were checking their hole cards, another player started chop talk.

I was on the DB with AQo and curious to see how this developed but I stuck to my usual “I’m good either way. Whatever you guys want.” The small blind, heretofore open to chop talk, was suddenly uninterested in a deal. “Let’s play for a bit.” Uh, noted. We played on but I was concerned about the small blind now.

The blinds were 300/600 and with a fold to me, I raised my AQo to 2400. SM insta-called and the big blind folded. Careful, Edmond.

Flop came AJT rainbow. SB checked to me. What hands would make him duck a chop…probably TT+, ATo+. The only hands I really wanted him to have here are KK, QQ or AQ…and I had a Q so that made AQ and QQ less likely. Whatever, I shoved anyway. It’s a home game, right? He beat me to the pot and I expected the worst when he turned over…A9. Ok, so much for my ability to read a player. Thank god I didn’t have the good judgment to follow it.

My AQ held and now I was the monster stack. The other players were beside themselves and howled at A9 player for loading me up. Feeling generous, I offered the following chop “If you want, I’ll take the winner’s share and you guys can split the rest.” They took it immediately, I pocketed the six hundie and we were on to tournament #2.

As we’re setting up, New & Improved took me aside and said, “I was surprised you would let us chop with a big stack like that.” I confided in him, “Uh, you know I can’t win MORE than the winner’s share, right?” He’s obviously not at that chapter yet.

Rinse & repeat

Ten of the original twelve stuck around for the second tournament, this one for a $60 buy-in. Again, I ground my way down to the final three not getting out of line with anything. I’d normally be more aggressive late (these guys LOVE to fold near the money), but I could tell the player to my left wanted to go home. Last thing I wanted was him calling my T5o button shove light. Sure enough, a few hands later, he raised with J9 and called a shove for 30 BBs. J9 < AKo and we were down to two. The other player and I then chopped for 1st and 2nd place money with a little premium for the dealer.

At this point, it was about 1a. I was net $700 on the evening not counting drinks and goodwill generated. Meanwhile, lakong sent me a voicemail that he’d chopped a satellite but pretty much fizzled in the CAPC event. Meh, sometimes it’s better to take the sure thing.

Opera in a poker blog? WTF?

You may know that last week the music world lost a giant when tenor Luciano Pavarotti succumbed to pancreatic cancer. Unlike many classical music or opera stars, Pavarotti was open to other genres and made his music more accessible via charity concerts and collaborative duets with such artists as Bono, Meatloaf, Queen, James Brown, Barry White, et al.

He was launched into popular culture well past his prime after a performance of Nessun Dorma for the opening ceremony of the 1990 World Cup in Italy. It’s an aria from the final act of Puccini’s opera Turandot and became his signature piece. You can see him singing it at the closing ceremony of the 2006 Winter Olympics at Torino, Italy below. Not bad for “past his prime”, right?



He spent the latter part of his career pretty much phoning it in to opera houses (one critic put it succinctly…”he reminded me of a friendly stagehand who'd wandered onstage in the middle of an opera and decided to make the best of it.”) and printing multi-platinum CDs with Placido Domingo and Jose Carreras, aka The Three Tenors.

No opera critic ever gave him the high marks for his Three Tenors gigs that he’d have pulled for one of his 70s era performances of La Boheme, but audiences loved the crossover work, and on his worst day, he could easily hold his own with likes of Bono and Meatloaf. Furthermore, selling out a stadium paid better than selling out the Metropolitan Opera House. Play with worse players and get paid more? Pavarotti understood the value of good game selection. RIP, sir…you were a MONSTER.

Nice Potts

Fast forward to the summer of 2007 when Paul Potts, a contestant on Britain’s Got Talent (an American Idol type show in the UK), sings Nessun Dorma in his audition as seen below. It’s perhaps better titled “Cell phone salesman in bad suit sings Puccini and stuns Simon Cowell and 2,000 members of the audience to tears...”



Potts ultimately won the entire competition, beating the odds maker favorite, a talented 6-year-old girl singing Somewhere Over the Rainbow. He released an album and the single of that aria reached #2 on the UK charts, the highest position ever for a classical recording.

Believe it or not, there’s a lesson in these two performances for poker players. First, however talented you are, there’s value in good game selection. Exposing others to your talents may turn you on to a bigger market that can have a dramatic impact on your bankroll. Less competition for better money? Put your ego away and your wallet will prosper. Second, as the host of my home game learned, you need to remember that the guy that looks like a donk may, in fact, have real talent. Be careful how you judge him on first glance; he may just leave you stunned and sobbing.

Still digging,

Edmond

Ok, time for an off-topic trip report to provide a little balance to my recent posts. Sunday night, my wife and I joined another couple in their box at the Hollywood Bowl for Movie Night in which the Hollywood Bowl orchestra plays music from movies to clips from the movies themselves. It’s an annual performance held at the end of the summer season, and this year the Bowl chose Paramount Pictures as the studio from which they’d select movies.

The evening was hosted by Leonard Nimoy (aka Mr. Spock, now 77 years old and still energetic) and featured Paramount classics like..

The Godfather
Star Trek
Raiders of the Lost Ark
Mission Impossible
Love Story
Breakfast at Tiffany’s
Grease
Titanic

At one point, my friend’s wife confided that she had never seen the Godfather (either I or II)—uh, wow, since my friend is Sicilian by heritage and quotes it daily. A few clips later my wife confessed that she’s never seen any of the Raiders of the Lost Ark movies. WTF? You're not familiar with Indiana Jones? How did this get past the due diligence team? A few clips later, a clip from Grease came on and the orchestra broke into Summer Nights. Both our wives immediately reacted and said they’d seen the movie “maybe twenty times”. Ok, this is ridiculous.

I’m pretty sure I don’t know a guy who’s NOT seen all the Godfather films and Raiders at least once. On the other hand, I wouldn’t be shocked if a friend of mine said he’d passed on the opportunity to see John Travolta singing and dancing as a 1950s high-schooler. I don’t profess to understand my wife or women generally, but in the future, if someone asks me to explain the differences, I think this is an excellent reference point. “It’s like this. Guys like the Godfather. Women like Grease. Just do the best you can with that.”

One thing we all did agree on is that Audrey Hepburn was awesome in Breakfast at Tiffany’s. The movie came out in 1961, so it predates even me, and I saw it for the first time just a few years ago. If you haven’t ever seen an Audrey Hepburn movie, you owe it to yourself and your wife or girlfriend to fire up the DVD. I guarantee you’ll enjoy it—Hepburn as an escort/socialite, George Peppard as a struggling writer (pre-A Team), Buddy Ebsen (after he was the Tin Man but before he was Jed Clampett) and Mickey Rooney as a Japanese neighbor. Sounds wacky, but it’s charming stuff.

If you’re ever in Los Angeles for Labor Day weekend, make an effort to get up to the Bowl for Movie Night. The Bowl is an outdoor amphitheatre and there’s not a bad seat in the place. Score some tickets, bring some food and a bottle of good wine and watch some great clips to superb scores in a very cool setting. I recommend it!

Tilt or just bad play?

I’m not sure how many readers follow macroeconomic events, but the recent market developments are worth observing, even if you’re not invested. A number of market participants—hedge funds, complacent investors, CNBC, et al.—would argue that the stock market’s on tilt, and all that’s necessary to settle the market back into its A game is a rate cute and calm nerves. I’d argue that the market’s recent swings are more the result of poor discipline by investors and consumers—overvaluing marginal hands out of position—and that the bankroll impact of that lack of discipline is just starting.

Earlier this year, the credit markets began to unravel (that is, borrowers had trouble funding loans) when several sub-prime lenders (lenders to homeowners with less than stellar credit) began to wobble and, in some cases, liquidate. Then in July, a couple of large hedge funds (investment funds for institutions and wealthy individuals) showed heavy losses from these investments causing many to reassess their investment criteria.

Within a matter of days, a few large bond financings (deals to finance corporate buyouts) stalled in the market, causing investors to then rethink other bonds they held in their portfolios. Investors began pulling money out of funds and many banks began liquidating large portfolios of loans. The end result has been a rapid deterioration of companies’ and individuals’ ability to borrow as easily as they could even 2-3 months ago.

”Just open-shove! It’s a re-buy!”

In the old days, when you wanted to buy a house, you had to pony up a 20-30% down payment and, if your credit was good, you would then borrow the balance in a 15 or 30-year mortgage. When the housing market took off over the last few years, competition for new loans was so fierce lenders began offering “creative” mortgages—interest-only loans, adjustable rate loans, no income verification loans, etc. In addition, they offered many loans to borrowers who were poor credit risks (aka sub-prime borrowers). The end result was that home ownership, a tenet of the American dream, was available to pretty much anyone who breathed.

When anyone could qualify for a loan, predictably many did. Home prices appreciated monthly, and the pressure to get in the game was great—“It’s the best investment you can make!” “God’s not making any more of it!” “You’re throwing away money by renting!” While there’s an element of truth to those arguments, there’s another truism. When capital can move freely and stupidly, it will. And when it’s an emotional investment (as most housing is), look out. Americans bought homes in record numbers, flipped them, bought second homes, re-financed money out. It was a wonderful cash machine. Now, though, that game’s over.

”Next hand, blinds and antes are up!”

If you’re a marginal homeowner with a creative loan, and you were looking to refinance or flip when the “creative” part ran out, you’re now officially out of luck. Countrywide, the nation’s largest mortgage broker, is reeling under rumors of liquidity problems and possible bankruptcy. They’ve announced that henceforth they’ll only issue “conforming” loans, i.e. the good, old-fashioned boring ones. The problem is, that some 30-40% of mortgages in speculative markets (Las Vegas, Florida, California, etc.) were “creative.” There are over $800 BILLION of reset mortgages coming due next year. Imagine if you have an adjustable rate mortgage, interest only, at 2-3%, not an uncommon situation. Now when your mortgage resets, your rate will approach 7% increasing your monthly payment dramatically. That’s not a problem, though because you can flip your house if you get tight for cash. Well, at least you USED to be able to.

I’m convinced that over the next few years, the real estate market (including markets like California, Manhattan, etc.) is going to shake out hard. It won’t happen overnight since home sales are illiquid generally and even more so now with limited credit availability. However, people who over-reached and over-levered will eventually lose money and, in some cases, their homes. Of course, many will howl that they were, in fact, victims of greedy mortgage sellers, but the reality is they got ahead of themselves in a levered asset. It’s a hard lesson to learn.

This housing market, like the internet bubble and other brilliant ideas, will run through its five phases, namely

Enthusiasm.
Disillusionment.
Panic.
Punishment of the innocent.
Praise & honor for non-participants.

We’re about halfway through stage 2, and nowhere near the bottom.

"Floor!"

In recent weeks, the Fed and other central banks have been providing massive amounts (billions) of liquidity into the monetary system to ease the crisis. Late last week, the Asian markets got pummeled and the only thing preventing the same thing in the U.S. was the Fed’s surprise decision to drop the discount rate (rate at which it loans money to banks) by ½%. The Fed had declined to reduce the more influential Fed funds rate (the rate banks charge each other) because it’s fearful of inflation pressure. But then when the Asian markets were down 5%, they stepped in with a little boost. That cut and the market’s reaction was the equivalent of telling you “She’s a big girl, but she’s got a great personality.” Do yourself a favor and ask for a recent photo.

Short-stacked?

Remember, the American consumer’s already under a tremendous amount of pressure. Government figures suggest that core inflation is under control, but “core” inflation excludes several important items, housing, energy costs and food costs, that have been increasing dramatically. I don’t know about you, but rent, gas and food comprise a big chunk of my budget. It’s an even bigger chunk of the average American family making $60,000 or so a year with kids and a couple of SUVs in the driveway.

In addition, the Bureau of Labor Statistics would have you believe that employment is going along at a good clip. Indeed, lots of small businesses have been hiring. But huge layoffs are announced daily in larger corporations (expect more in financial services) and the government figures include estimates for construction and housing employment that are based on recent years data. I’m pretty sure there hasn’t been a new construction or housing job created in MONTHS regardless of what the BLS forecasting model says.

In short, the American consumer is already under a tremendous amount of pressure even before this credit crunch. Just ask Wal-Mart, the nation’s largest retailer, which accounts for some 9% of all retail purchases—it’s a good proxy for the consumer, at large. They recently missed their revenue and profit forecasts and cut their expectation for the year.

Does this mean the market’s going to crash? I don’t think so. Markets are now global and European and Asian lenders are not as exposed to problem housing loans as US lenders. In addition, countries who’ve been the beneficiaries of our consumptive ways over the last couple of years (China, Japan, oil producers, etc.) have big surpluses that they can move into markets when financial assets get cheaper. Here at home, there are plenty of institutions out there with plenty of cash to invest (Berkshire Hathaway, for example) and a number of corporations are sitting on wads of cash with which they could repurchase their stock. In short, it could get ugly, but, I believe, the markets and US economy will sort itself out.

But Edmond, I play POKER not the MARKET

Yeah, but what’s this mean for poker players? Americans love to gamble; they spend more in casinos that on movie tickets, recorded music, theme parks, spectator sports and video games…COMBINED. That said, I think it’s naïve to think that any significant impact to the American consumer won’t show up in numbers of tournament entries from casual players. In almost every tournament I’ve played over the last year, there’s at least a couple of “developers” at the table. Many pro poker players I know tend to keep themselves either in cash or bust, so exposure to a portfolio of real estate or levered assets isn’t a risk for most. A soft housing market or overall economy, though, will mean the steady flow of shot-taking recreational players might suffer a bit over the next few years.

Imagine, if you can, heading out to Vegas for the WSOP main event with some of your own dough and some from a friend and backer. The field is huge and soft and it looks like everyone’s got dough. You’ve had a little success in your home game and you’re ready to make your name. You start off great—a couple of nice hands hold and then a marginal hand nets you a huge pot. You’re checking in with your wife and backer daily—everything’s great, you’ll money, for sure. You can’t help but think about what you’re going to do with your score and over the next few days run up a nice little Rio bill. And then BAM! Out of nowhere, you get worked for your stack, overplaying AJo or some piece of trash within sight of the money. The blinds burn off the rest of your stack and just like that you’re gone, out of the tournament with nothing but an unused food voucher. You head back to Tennessee or wherever with 6 days of room service bills, a hangover and a suitcase full of clothes that smell like smoke to show for the effort. That’s how the American consumer/homeowner feels right now.

In time, the market will get over this crunch, like we all got through those bubble bust-outs, but for now there’ll be plenty of players swearing off the game and walking around muttering “Never again.”

Still digging,

Edmond

For folks new to blogging, I thought I’d offer up some suggestions to make your blogging easier and more interesting for readers.

Note Taking

First, if you’re going to blog about tournaments, rooms or trip reports, get yourself a voice recorder. Hands or details that seem interesting at the time are often difficult to remember the following day when you’re sleep deprived or hung over. You can get a digital voice recorder (<$100 for a nice one, Olympus or Sony, at any Staples or Best Buy), use the rudimentary voice recorder in your cell-phone or buy an adapter for most iPods. The idea isn’t to become some full-on reporter for the Times but to use the recorder to make notes on details (hands, stack sizes, room features, etc.) that you might not remember when you’re ready to write.

In the absence of a voice recorder, take notes when you can. Writing down stuff that strikes you as interesting detail—number of tables, an unusual hand, characteristics of your opponents, whatever—will make it MUCH easier to write when you’re in front of the computer. You don’t have to take formal notes in a notebook; just jot a few notes on a cocktail napkin or structure sheet. How many tables were left, stack sizes, what guys were wearing, how you were feeling, etc. Anything that will help kick-start your writing when you’re off the felt.

Pictures and Links

Whenever possible, add pictures or links to your blog. Pictures add detail that’s not always easy to convey with words and links to other articles, sites, room listings, etc. give your reader additional info without cluttering your post. At TwoRags, we’ve got very easy image and linking tools for bloggers. If you haven’t already tried them, you should. They’ll really make your blog come to life.

A note on pictures. As with many forums and blogs, you’ll need to host your image somewhere and reference the url in your image link. If you post me at edmond@tworags.com, I’ll put your image(s) on our server, size it appropriately and post you a url link that you can easily use in your blog.

Organization

Finally, organize your blog post into bite size chunks. Whenever I’m running long, I try to break the blog into sections with a heading and some sort of structure so the reader doesn’t feel overwhelmed. If you’re writing short, punchy pieces, it’s not as critical to break your work into sections, but if you’re writing more than 5-6 paragraphs, do the reader a favor and break your work up into discreet units. It’ll be easier for you to edit and him to read.

You can see all of these concepts in use in a blog post I made a few days ago here WSOP Event #15: A rookie goes deep...

Still digging,

Edmond