I don't play as many tournaments as other guys, but here's my 2c.
First of all, given your stack and the blinds, there's no question you're pushing that hand if it's folded to you. You need to be adding blinds and antes to your stack, and frankly, need to double up if you're going to make it deeper in the tournament. The problem is, this guy in front of you raised UTG.
At this stage of the tournament, guys will be raising aggressively from middle position on. Since he's UTG, though, I'd probably put the raiser's range on something like 77+, KQo+, AT+ (about 10% of the possible hands). Against that range, you're 42/58 to win, if called and there's at least 1500-1600 in the pot to start with. Importantly, you've got enough to hurt him badly, so there's some chance he folds part of that range.
The thing that would concern me is the fact that he raised and didn't push. He's not a big stack by any stretch and facing the same pressure you are. Wouldn't he be open shoving most of that range? Probably. The only hands he'd be just raising are 1) the premium hands (AQo+, TT+...about 5% of hands) and the ones he's interested in playing but would pitch to a reraise (i.e., the lowest pairs, KQo, ATo...about 5% of hands). So figure roughly half the time, you're facing a call in which you're about 25/75 to win; the other half the time, he folds.
If you do the rough math...
50% of the time (at best), he folds and you win the blinds, antes and his raise--about 3200 or so, leaving you with 8,200.
50% of the time, he calls and 25% of that time you win 12,000 or thereabouts. The other 75% of the time, you're out.
(50% x 8200) + (25% x 50% x 12,000) (75% x 50% x 0) = 4100 + 1500 + 0 = 5600, so you're slightly better of that you were at the start of the hand.
Of course, there's a chance that someone wakes up with a hand behind you, but with an UTG raiser and UTG+2 push, you're only getting called by AQo+, TT+ so that narrows the calling field. It's online though, so there's always the possibility you're called by a wider range than I've assumed above.
In short, it's probably marginal but I'd balance the risk against the reality that I need to double up at some point to continue, the blinds/antes are wrecking my stack and AJo here is better than Q8 with a smaller stack. I shove and spend the rest of the afternoon rethinking it.
Edmond
P.S. Whether or not you've seen a hand in 1.5 hours doesn't really factor in here other than you may get slightly more folding respect. The last 1.5 hours don't matter; what matters is the situation you face now and what's the best decision you can make in that situation. |