Taking Early Small Edges in Tournament Poker
by brad2002tj on 04/30/08
I got a PM on 2+2 that posed an interesting question so I thought it might me good to post the question and my response on here.Question:
You seem to be the most knowledgable poster here [sidebar: LOL], so I was hoping you could settle something for me.
You've helped me reconsider my approach to MTTs (from survivor to accumulator). However, for whatever reason, I'm not yet fully convinced that taking a +chipEV edge early is always correct (I know this is an on-going, classic debate...but it seems there is now a consensus that the accumulators are correct). Here's why:
I think a valid assumption at the early stages of an MTT is that we are going to be dealt many hands. We can calculate the probability of getting AA...which will be relativley high (we can add in KK and QQ, etc...so, even higher). When we take the early +chipEV....we are foregoing this high probability of being dealt AA.
Again, I know this has been hammered (and have read Woodguy's thread)...but how can we justify passing up on a future, larger +chipEV (that is not certain, but probable) for a smaller +chipEV early? Is it simply because we cannot assume that it is probable that we will be in a higher +chipEV spot?
I just need to get past this disconnect and was hoping you could help (as you did with explaining why $EV doesn't matter until real late). Thanks.....
My Response:
LOL @ me being most knowledgeable. But, I do know a thing or two and can help answer your question.
To win a tournament you must take every edge given to you, either by the cards, by aggressive play, by outthinking your opponents, etc. In large field tournaments, waiting for 80/20 edges where you actually get paid off may happen once or twice if you are lucky. Even if you are lucky and get AA 5 times, doubling up with it once is probably meeting expectation. (meaning someone else had something they were willing to stack off with and put all their chips in play). Most of the time you get AA you are going to raise, someone might call, you bet or check/raise and most of the time they fold. 1 out of 5 times your overpair will get cracked. Thus, waiting for overpairs and 80/20 spots, while certainly solid +Cev spots, will not by themselves be near enough to win a tournament. Moreover, if you consistently passing up spots with, say, 99 because you are "looking for better spots" and are unwilling to race against overcards, you may infact we giving up an 80/20 because villian could have 88 or less. This is why villian's ranges must be merged and weighted and our +Cev hand felted in these spots. For the same reason most advocate calling nearly all all-in's with AK. Most of the time we have already put in a raise with AK and along with the blinds/antes and any other dead money in the pot makes the all-in call +Cev even when we are the 45/55 dog. Tournaments are won by chip accumulation, and the only way to accumulate the number of chips needed to win is by outplaying opponents and winning coin flips. Every large field tournament winner sucked out more than his fair share to get to that point as well.
In sum, you won't maximize your tournament potential if you don't embrace the need to felt small edges. Those who refuse to engage in early/middle stages coin flips are usually the kind of players that bubble and min cash a lot. To get to the final table you must take every +Cev spot available and have the cards go your way. Only one of those factors is within your control.
Hope this helps.
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