My ROI for poker this year: some puny, not particularly high number. (In fact, if you count live poker, it's pretty spectacularly negative, but that's everyone except, uhh, my entire WSOP house...okay, I suck.) My ROI for political betting this year: 200%+. I'm pretty sure this means I should stick to tworags, poker coaching (those who can't do, teach), political betting coaching (those who like to hear themselves talk, teach), and whatever else I do that doesn't involve poker and/or possibly move to a different country holding elections every year so I can handicap their races. C'mon, that'd be really fun, right? No? Okay, then.

Aside from the ugly ROI part, which mostly involves running awful in tourneys, I've been playing good winning poker recently, but in the last place I expected to wind up [back] at - SNG's. Playing around with a push analyzer, I discovered a handful of leaks, but it looks like my intuition is still good and I don't make many push/fold errors, which is about everything that's required to beat those things other than running well. Because of my prop deal, I get paid for playing them more than anyone online except for FTP's red pros, so it makes sense for me to get a bunch in every day; they're unintrusive enough/I don't care about bad runs in them enough to take time off. My end of the year goal is to play half or more of the high level ones running on Cake while I'm doing a session, which would wind up being something like 30-40 over a few hours. I can probably do that and stay sane; since there's only one big political betting day left, and Sundays are usually a money sink, it's a good way to grind up cash for the rest of the year.

In the meantime, Intrade has definitely been fun. Two days ago, when nobody knew who Palin was, a friend of mine and I did flight traffic analysis, spotted a plane from Anchorage to Ohio, followed up on that and spotted a Free Republic (right wing forum) thread proclaiming the same thing, and basically had the entire Palin market to ourselves for hours. Having taken a flyer on her earlier that day when she was trading at 2% rather than the 4% most of my shares were at, my friend made more than I did, but both of us cleaned up (I made more off the night than I have in any single tournament this year) and I've no complaints. Much like poker, there's a kind of cerebral high that comes from having a clear scoop on a piece of critical information, knowing that you are very likely right and hugely ahead of the curve, and then having the market prove you right time and time again. It's definitely got a competition element, and I can see why hedge fund guys love what they do, except for the whole "sleeping at the office for weeks at a time" part.

Now that I'm done bragging, check out the good (for once) pic of me about to bust out of a Fresnoment on Kyle's blog :)

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