
Well, when it comes to sats, anyway. I didn't get anywhere in either of the last two big tournaments - once due to a bad bluff on my part, once due to a bad beat that dropped me down to the 8-15 BB range where I stayed in for the next four hours before mercifully busting - but I feel like I'm playing better, which includes chopping a 525 and a 215 razz sat (probably the only other razz tourney I'm playing this year.)
Today's live NL hand: I'm sitting on the left of Cam Hua, who's, frankly, playing really bad - loose/passive all over the place and pretty much spewing everywhere except for his hand reading, which is still on target. I've already won a nice pot off him with a river overbet with the one card straight nuts that he paid off when, at 50/100, he limps UTG (his range includes K9s here.) I pick up AK in MP1, raise to 400 to isolate, and everyone folds back to him/he calls. (I have ~5500ish and cover him by a fair bit.)
Flop QT7. He checks, but this clobbered his range, so I check behind. The turn is another 7, he instachecks and I check (I'm probably calling a river bet unimproved at this point.)
Except, the river is a K and he bets 550.
The pot is 950 and ordinarily, online, this isn't even a close call - but he knows exactly what I have, and he's still betting. Right after this post, I'm going to go on 2+2, post this hand, and get clobbered by people telling me to call...and they'll probably be wrong. I really feel like I picked the worst of the three options, and that if I wanted to win this pot, what I should have done is to bluff shove, representing the nuts I already got him with one time. More likely, I should have just folded. Instead, I called because I like pot odds and was, of course, shown J9. I need to learn to trust my instincts and go with them more in annoying spots like this one.
Today's razz hand and why I love the idea of a razz tournament even though I'll probably go busto in it ASAP: Six players remain in a sat where the structure is so nuts that the average player has, I'm guessing, maybe 6 BB. After two people including myself fold, the remaining upcards are a 3 (held by Mr. Bracelet Winner from the day before yesterday), a 9 (held by some guy who's attempting to play well but the structure is so fast that he's failing), an 8 (the only other decent player in the field), and the bringin, a 10 held by an Asian guy who's never played razz before and is basically a total newbie.
How to screw up your tournament in one go: Bracelet Winner *open limps* his 3 (I think completing KK in the hole is probably a smaller mistake than this). The 9 calls behind him. The 8 now raises (completes), indicating a decent hand (but who the hell knows), and the 10 looks at his cards and says "I think I have to call" (he has two babies down but can obviously be gotten off his hand on fourth).
I'm fully expecting Mr. Bracelet to now go ahead and reraise so the 8 can 3 bet and try to shut the 10 out, making a huge pot heads up vs. an 8 where he can't possibly be a big dog. Instead, he folds (lol). The 9 follows and the 8 actually gets the hand heads up against the 10!!! The ten pairs on fourth, folds and the 8 doubles his stack without ever seeing fifth street. Completely ridiculous, and why I am going to love this tournament. I don't even care if I run bad, as long as I get to laugh at the play.
Oh yeah - I finally booked a nice, big sat win on top of that, my friend Justin Rollo is at the FT of the 2K, and I won my first ever shot at credit card roulette. Running good is awesome.