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General/p9: Possibly too level-headed
Still Absolutely rigged
by Adanthar on 09/21/07
In the meantime, credit goes to Adam Junglen and myself for coming up with a solution to the whodunit:
[23:09] Adam Junglen: man
[23:09] Adam Junglen: imagine multi-accounting super users
[23:09] Adam Junglen: that'd be fun
[23:09] Adam Junglen: lol
[23:09] Adanthar: the software is clearly 1 table max
[23:09] Adam Junglen: Come on
[23:09] Adanthar: and actually come to think about it
[23:09] Adam Junglen: a little humor in there
[23:09] Adanthar: it cant be software
[23:09] Adanthar: it has to be some kind of program with a login
[23:10] Adanthar: otherwise they'd just run 2 copies and multiaccount
[23:10] Adanthar: nah you seriously gave me the idea just now heh
[23:10] Adanthar: dude
[23:10] Adanthar: you just showed conclusively its an inside job
[23:10] Adanthar: omfg
[23:11] Adam Junglen: As long as you give me the credit and make it sound as t hough it was a coherent thought
[23:11] Adam Junglen: I sure did
[23:11] Adanthar: yeah I'm gonna post it right now
[23:11] Adam Junglen: make sure to point out that I'm so brilliant I did it without realizing
If you read the BBV thread (and seen the hand history of Potripper's FT I went over), it's pretty obvious that the superuser is using some kind of aid that has to be pointed at a specific table, because the only hand where Potripper clearly doesn't cheat is exactly the first hand when he gets moved to the FT. In addition, none of the superaccounts ever played > 1 table at a time. But wait - why wouldn't they just make a second copy of the software, if it was a standalone program, and monitor multiple tables? Because they couldn't - they only had the one login/password combination and doubtless didn't want to, or couldn't, log in from multiple PC's at a time.
Game, set, match. The reason AP is trying to bury this is because a superuser program with an outside login - something that should never exist and should certainly not be publicly revealed if it does - somehow got out into the wild, or, more likely, a disgruntled security guy pulled off the steal of the decade. Of course, they now have no choice but to try to bury it; otherwise, their entire site has a high chance of going under (screw the people who lost half a million dollars; they aren't important.) This will even probably work, since none of us have a high desire to let Focus on the Family run any more misinformed 'online poker really is rigged' hit pieces and will probably let them get away with it.
And thus, another ridiculous chapter in the history of e-commerce/online poker/people who shouldn't be trusted to run an ice cream store comes to a close...except for one thing. Some people, even a few high stakes players, still apparently want to play at AP since it's such a soft game now that the better informed regulars have all left (lol). To them, I offer this 2+2 post of mine:
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On one level, it may make sense for Absolute to do this, but on that same level, it makes zero sense for HS players to ever deposit a dollar there again.
You may think that since the games are going to be softer in the near future, you'd want to go back and give them a shot. Well, there's two problems with this:
1)You're relying on Absolute to be stonewalling while fixing their mistakes internally. What happens if they're simply dumb and the hacker is still out there, or if it's an inside job [editor's note - oops!] and he's just taking some poker lessons before trying again?
2)It's hard to play perfect poker at the best of times. Now you're gonna have to wonder whether an unknown can see your cards whenever he raises you off your missed overcards twice in a row. You think you're gonna be playing optimally vs. him for the next hour? How about in the big MTT's, where timex already panicked enough to make a thread about it once? Hell, that guy could've really been cheating and decided to tank the tournament to deflect suspicion. You'll never know. Have fun working out your new, updated EV, cause I'm not gonna be the one sticking up for you and compiling a body of evidence after Absolute quite clearly admitted they're not going to act publicly.
My prediction is that no high stakes player that is aware of this scandal is ever going to play optimally at Absolute for a very long time, and it's going to send your EV straight through the floor even without the benefit of any hacking. GP and a few others might prove me wrong over the long run, or they might not. Remember that in the long run, it only takes one giant hole card cammed pot to wipe out a couple of weeks' worth of rungood.
---
Let's hope that every other site is very quietly taking notes. It's too late for Absolute to do anything to retain a good chunk of its high stakes playerbase, but if you're somebody else with hole card cams...for the love of God, delete the functionality and never access it again. Better yet, hire me as your crisis PR guy; I promise you I'd do a better job than anybody at AP.
Absolutely ridiculous
by Adanthar on 09/18/07
The Absolute tally thus far: three days, five clearly cheating accounts, upwards of half a million dollars, zero acknowledgment from senior Absolute management in any way. Well, okay, it's the biggest scandal in online poker history since Planet's RNG back in 1999 or whenever the Internet was still a series of tubes; perhaps they're trying to keep it in-house and contact everyone involved behind the scenes or something...wait, no they aren't, because I haven't heard shit.
Since 99% of the high stakes poker world *is* hooked up to that series of tubes now, though, there is an awful lot of damage being done, and AP should really have a public relations team on the case. Fortunately for them, the 1% is still stubbornly defending them in this Casinomeister thread with a disjointed post that starts thusly:
The whole issue is just amusing...
Do people really buy that crap? come on..
It goes on from there. Unfortunately, one post later, this guy gets outed as - no kidding - a repeated Absolute spammer who has the same IP address as the President of Absolute Entertainment. He, of course, never posts again.
Wow. Just wow. *This* is the best you can do? Get with the damn times; you're giving this entire business a black eye on a daily basis. In the meantime, every day you don't do anything about this (and I'm including a BIG PR push - not counting spamming shills) is a day I probably personally cost you another five digits in lost business just from compiling freaking hand histories. How do you people run an eight (if not nine!) digit a year enterprise and spend two days with the only response to the nuclear bomb of online poker coming from a random affiliate manager who doesn't know what she's talking about?
How do you manage to print that much money and suck this bad?
---
In other sort of poker related news, the Fed cut rates half a point today, stunning pretty much everybody. This sent Wall Street up and the dollar down, a scenario which is going to repeat for the next few months until, most likely, the Dow finally goes down with the ship. The reason I say this is that looking at the combination of a spike in oil price + a weak dollar (driving up oil obv) + subprime today gives me the unpleasant impression that this bounce looks a whole lot like those two minutes on the Titanic where the aforementioned ship stood on end before taking a final giant, glorious swan dive. The rats (that is, those of us who, thanks to earning 100% of our income in dollars while traveling all over the planet, have to hit the water first) are gonna be scurrying around looking for buckets, but unfortunately, BBV4Life tells me the bucket seal is dead. Where am I going with this tortured metaphor? Uhh...pull as much of your bankroll out as possible and stick it into an account denominated in something whose color isn't green, because even one or two more interest rate cuts from now on means that the Canadians are gonna start making jokes about our worthless toilet paper money. If even my lazy ass is going to do it, you ought to get in line before the last life raft sails.
Since 99% of the high stakes poker world *is* hooked up to that series of tubes now, though, there is an awful lot of damage being done, and AP should really have a public relations team on the case. Fortunately for them, the 1% is still stubbornly defending them in this Casinomeister thread with a disjointed post that starts thusly:
The whole issue is just amusing...
Do people really buy that crap? come on..
It goes on from there. Unfortunately, one post later, this guy gets outed as - no kidding - a repeated Absolute spammer who has the same IP address as the President of Absolute Entertainment. He, of course, never posts again.
Wow. Just wow. *This* is the best you can do? Get with the damn times; you're giving this entire business a black eye on a daily basis. In the meantime, every day you don't do anything about this (and I'm including a BIG PR push - not counting spamming shills) is a day I probably personally cost you another five digits in lost business just from compiling freaking hand histories. How do you people run an eight (if not nine!) digit a year enterprise and spend two days with the only response to the nuclear bomb of online poker coming from a random affiliate manager who doesn't know what she's talking about?
How do you manage to print that much money and suck this bad?
---
In other sort of poker related news, the Fed cut rates half a point today, stunning pretty much everybody. This sent Wall Street up and the dollar down, a scenario which is going to repeat for the next few months until, most likely, the Dow finally goes down with the ship. The reason I say this is that looking at the combination of a spike in oil price + a weak dollar (driving up oil obv) + subprime today gives me the unpleasant impression that this bounce looks a whole lot like those two minutes on the Titanic where the aforementioned ship stood on end before taking a final giant, glorious swan dive. The rats (that is, those of us who, thanks to earning 100% of our income in dollars while traveling all over the planet, have to hit the water first) are gonna be scurrying around looking for buckets, but unfortunately, BBV4Life tells me the bucket seal is dead. Where am I going with this tortured metaphor? Uhh...pull as much of your bankroll out as possible and stick it into an account denominated in something whose color isn't green, because even one or two more interest rate cuts from now on means that the Canadians are gonna start making jokes about our worthless toilet paper money. If even my lazy ass is going to do it, you ought to get in line before the last life raft sails.
Not much going on right now
by Adanthar on 09/04/07
Mostly, I'm waiting on the Cardrunners microphone to get here so I can play around with making some videos. I tried to do some stuff with the regular mike I use for Skype, but the sound quality is bad enough that it's not worth posting. Tournament-wise, I haven't made a deep run in a week or so, so no really interesting hands there, either.
In order to make this entry not worthless, here's a hand Bond posted on 2+2:
Seat 2: ACFIORE (8,355)
Seat 7: muckthenuts (6,360)
muckthenuts posts the small blind of 25
snappingUoff posts the big blind of 50
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to muckthenuts [Qs Td]
(2 folds)
ACFIORE calls 50
(2 folds)
ajgoal calls 50
muckthenuts calls 25
snappingUoff checks
*** FLOP *** [Js Qh Ts]
muckthenuts bets 150
snappingUoff folds
ACFIORE has 15 seconds left to act
ACFIORE raises to 650
ajgoal folds
muckthenuts
Before you say what we should do, let's figure out a)his range and b)what will happen if we call or 3 bet.
A)Villain open limped in EMP and then raised a very ugly flop. We can assume that he doesn't have AK here, and also discount AQ. AA-TT are all possibilities, though AA and JJ-TT are more likely. His overall range, then, is something like {AA, JJ-TT, Asxs, Ksxs, KQ, K9, QJ-QT, JT, 98}, but that does not count the raise size, which suggests a big made hand that wants to protect against draws and somewhat discounts combo draws. [Note that this isn't really a leak on villain's part on a flop like this even though he's giving away info; the flop is so bad and you'll have to slow down on so many turn cards that you may as well just try to win the pot here.]
B)1. If we call, the turn is a brick, and our 'big made hand' read is correct, the villain is probably betting all his hands again when checked to. We also clearly have to check/fold all non-bricks that don't boat us, even if we think villain might bluff a turn 9 (far too deep to bluff catch two streets) - and this probably includes spades, since the Qs just isn't that big of a deal and some of those outs are tainted.
2. If we 3 bet, villain might fold exactly aces. We'll wind up all in with everything else. If you Pokerstove his range and make the adjustments I mentioned, you'll find we're a little under 40/60 against it.
Therefore, what we have here is a pretty easy flop fold, and not folding here is a fairly decent leak (note that this doesn't apply in any buyin tournament where this can easily be Q7o.) Tournament players often don't get this because being this deep is rare and most of the time the action goes bet/shove/call, but with 115 BB, you have to think about what will happen on future streets, and on this board the answer is 'nothing good'.
BTW, (again, taking into account that the board is this bad), it is perfectly acceptable to check/call the flop and then bet a blank turn - a line that is pretty underused but ought to be considered here since we're pretty sure one of the limpers will bet. While it might not get the most chips in, it also greatly reduces the chances of us being semibluffed off the pot.
In order to make this entry not worthless, here's a hand Bond posted on 2+2:
Seat 2: ACFIORE (8,355)
Seat 7: muckthenuts (6,360)
muckthenuts posts the small blind of 25
snappingUoff posts the big blind of 50
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to muckthenuts [Qs Td]
(2 folds)
ACFIORE calls 50
(2 folds)
ajgoal calls 50
muckthenuts calls 25
snappingUoff checks
*** FLOP *** [Js Qh Ts]
muckthenuts bets 150
snappingUoff folds
ACFIORE has 15 seconds left to act
ACFIORE raises to 650
ajgoal folds
muckthenuts
Before you say what we should do, let's figure out a)his range and b)what will happen if we call or 3 bet.
A)Villain open limped in EMP and then raised a very ugly flop. We can assume that he doesn't have AK here, and also discount AQ. AA-TT are all possibilities, though AA and JJ-TT are more likely. His overall range, then, is something like {AA, JJ-TT, Asxs, Ksxs, KQ, K9, QJ-QT, JT, 98}, but that does not count the raise size, which suggests a big made hand that wants to protect against draws and somewhat discounts combo draws. [Note that this isn't really a leak on villain's part on a flop like this even though he's giving away info; the flop is so bad and you'll have to slow down on so many turn cards that you may as well just try to win the pot here.]
B)1. If we call, the turn is a brick, and our 'big made hand' read is correct, the villain is probably betting all his hands again when checked to. We also clearly have to check/fold all non-bricks that don't boat us, even if we think villain might bluff a turn 9 (far too deep to bluff catch two streets) - and this probably includes spades, since the Qs just isn't that big of a deal and some of those outs are tainted.
2. If we 3 bet, villain might fold exactly aces. We'll wind up all in with everything else. If you Pokerstove his range and make the adjustments I mentioned, you'll find we're a little under 40/60 against it.
Therefore, what we have here is a pretty easy flop fold, and not folding here is a fairly decent leak (note that this doesn't apply in any buyin tournament where this can easily be Q7o.) Tournament players often don't get this because being this deep is rare and most of the time the action goes bet/shove/call, but with 115 BB, you have to think about what will happen on future streets, and on this board the answer is 'nothing good'.
BTW, (again, taking into account that the board is this bad), it is perfectly acceptable to check/call the flop and then bet a blank turn - a line that is pretty underused but ought to be considered here since we're pretty sure one of the limpers will bet. While it might not get the most chips in, it also greatly reduces the chances of us being semibluffed off the pot.
On a short break
by Adanthar on 08/25/07
So, right after mentioning I was gonna go back to cash, I basically didn't play for a week except for a random night of razz somewhere in there. Part of that was game selection (kinda meh games on Cake this week), but most was probably just post-live tournament burnout. Other than Korea in a month, I'm definitely not going to play any live tournaments for a while; they do a number on my willingness to play afterwards, even though my game itself spikes up later. It's too much of a grind to live out of a hotel room for long periods of time.
edit: I just finished my TS review, and have a particular topic in mind for my next entry (unless something cool happens tomorrow and I get to blog about that instead. Here's hoping.)
edit: I just finished my TS review, and have a particular topic in mind for my next entry (unless something cool happens tomorrow and I get to blog about that instead. Here's hoping.)
Sunday
by Adanthar on 08/19/07
Wound up going back home last night and playing a full schedule tonight, where I proceeded to lose something like $60 on the day. Given the $1500 or so in entries this isn't even a negative, except in tilt dollars. The highlight was another decent finish in the Sunday Million, where I took 167th after losing two huge pots deep ITM (AQ < A9, then AA < a 3 way KQs/AJ AIPF big pot where I induced a squeeze) and then a 15xBB flip for the deathblow. I also took a huge stack into Hour 3 of the 535 FTOPS ME, then busted out after going *0 for 91* consecutive hands (in a 9 max tournament this is something like a one in ten thousand spot...ugh.)
Anyway, the highlight of the day is this hand, which I also posted on 2+2:
ull Tilt Poker Game #3302830235: FTOPS Main Event (22695133), Table 406 - 20/40 - No Limit Hold'em - 18:17:34 ET - 2007/08/19
Seat 1: Dorothy Parker (5,265)
Seat 2: pcon23 (4,825)
Seat 3: Bbuddy4brkfst (4,805)
Seat 4: silas22 (4,912)
Seat 5: gawyn (4,957)
Seat 6: Adar (5,375)
Seat 7: saladfingers44 (5,086)
Seat 8: Tarantula_Joe (5,035)
Seat 9: zeeland (4,740)
pcon23 posts the small blind of 20
Bbuddy4brkfst posts the big blind of 40
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Adar [Js Jd]
silas22 calls 40
gawyn folds
Adar raises to 160
saladfingers44 folds
Tarantula_Joe has 15 seconds left to act
Tarantula_Joe raises to 525
lots of people fold
Adar calls 365
*** FLOP *** [2s Ac Jh]
Adar checks
Tarantula_Joe checks
*** TURN *** [2s Ac Jh] [Ad]
Adar bets 640
Tarantula_Joe has 15 seconds left to act
Tarantula_Joe calls 640
*** RIVER *** [2s Ac Jh Ad] [Kh]
Adar
I think I post too many of these hands, in part because I've run really cold in these spots (I swear that nobody runs into a bigger boat/quads with a full house as much as I do given my volume), in part because I feel that they're partly avoidable. Earlier on today, in the Bodog 100K, I made a mistake and busted in the first hour on an AA vs. KK hand where I slowplayed PF, bet the 6648 board when he check/called (correctly reading him for an overpair that would stack off), but then shoved anyway when he bet into me on the K river - at that point, I should know his most likely hand got there and just call. That hand was in the back of my mind when I was playing this one, so despite feeling like I "had to" pay off, I wound up just check/folding.
Fun sidenote: after the hand, I looked this guy up on pokerdb and found that this was almost definitely someone's backup account (total of 3 tournaments in the last 2 years, none over $24.) This actually made me want to pay off a little more, but given that he'd played only one hand in 30 minutes, it was probably fine anyway.
After today, I'm probably partly going back to cash for a little while - still playing plenty of tournaments, but also jumping into the Cake 10/20 and 25/50 NL games when they're soft. That plus razz should keep me happy for the rest of the month; I feel like I need the practice with bigger stacks.
Anyway, the highlight of the day is this hand, which I also posted on 2+2:
ull Tilt Poker Game #3302830235: FTOPS Main Event (22695133), Table 406 - 20/40 - No Limit Hold'em - 18:17:34 ET - 2007/08/19
Seat 1: Dorothy Parker (5,265)
Seat 2: pcon23 (4,825)
Seat 3: Bbuddy4brkfst (4,805)
Seat 4: silas22 (4,912)
Seat 5: gawyn (4,957)
Seat 6: Adar (5,375)
Seat 7: saladfingers44 (5,086)
Seat 8: Tarantula_Joe (5,035)
Seat 9: zeeland (4,740)
pcon23 posts the small blind of 20
Bbuddy4brkfst posts the big blind of 40
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Adar [Js Jd]
silas22 calls 40
gawyn folds
Adar raises to 160
saladfingers44 folds
Tarantula_Joe has 15 seconds left to act
Tarantula_Joe raises to 525
lots of people fold
Adar calls 365
*** FLOP *** [2s Ac Jh]
Adar checks
Tarantula_Joe checks
*** TURN *** [2s Ac Jh] [Ad]
Adar bets 640
Tarantula_Joe has 15 seconds left to act
Tarantula_Joe calls 640
*** RIVER *** [2s Ac Jh Ad] [Kh]
Adar
I think I post too many of these hands, in part because I've run really cold in these spots (I swear that nobody runs into a bigger boat/quads with a full house as much as I do given my volume), in part because I feel that they're partly avoidable. Earlier on today, in the Bodog 100K, I made a mistake and busted in the first hour on an AA vs. KK hand where I slowplayed PF, bet the 6648 board when he check/called (correctly reading him for an overpair that would stack off), but then shoved anyway when he bet into me on the K river - at that point, I should know his most likely hand got there and just call. That hand was in the back of my mind when I was playing this one, so despite feeling like I "had to" pay off, I wound up just check/folding.
Fun sidenote: after the hand, I looked this guy up on pokerdb and found that this was almost definitely someone's backup account (total of 3 tournaments in the last 2 years, none over $24.) This actually made me want to pay off a little more, but given that he'd played only one hand in 30 minutes, it was probably fine anyway.
After today, I'm probably partly going back to cash for a little while - still playing plenty of tournaments, but also jumping into the Cake 10/20 and 25/50 NL games when they're soft. That plus razz should keep me happy for the rest of the month; I feel like I need the practice with bigger stacks.
