It's that time of year again. I look forward to the Aussie Millions more than any other tournament series. It's the perfect length, in the perfect city, during the perfect two weeks of summer. It's especially nice because I don't have to go anywhere to play in a major tournament besides a quick jaunt across the street, and the Australian Open tennis tournament is on just a 15 minute walk away.

Glancing over the schedule I see six or seven events I intend on playing, including the main. I kind of detest live poker these days so I'm not going in expecting much, but I've been working hard at getting up to speed by playing and studying online over the last few weeks, so at least I feel I'm going in sharp. I can't wait to see what hilarious tragedy awaits this year in the 1k rebuys! I've got my friends Mike Watson and Grant Levy staying in the apartment for the series, and I've recently talked Luckychewy into coming down for a visit (his first) so above all I intend this to be an ass load of fun.

I've set the date of the 3rd annual Drunken Kickball Classic on Saturday the 23rd at 3pm, we'll be meeting in front of the aquatic center in Albert park. It's the day of the 100k at the Crown so not too many guys that I know will be playing (except my roommate Jarred, who will likely win it considering what a fucking stud he is.) The plan for the day is to start there with a mix of kickball and dodge ball (must keep a beer in your hand at all times duh) and then walk over to the Belgian Beer Garden a few blocks away where we will continue to get trashed well into the evening. After that we'll probably go out somewhere, I'm not really sure since I'll be so drunk and high at the time I'm not going to presume I could actually plan it now. I'll definitely have people bring cameras so I can do a trip report for that day and I'm very confident it will result in some excellent photo moments.

Let's do this shit!

I recently read Lee Watkinson's latest blog entry. I don't know the guy particularly well, but from what I can tell he seems like a nice guy and I've got no personal beef with him, I simply believe his entry to be very misinformed. Additionally, I rarely give much of a shit about politics (which is what happens when you live in Australia long enough) but in this case I'll make an exception.

Watkinson essentially argues that if you belong to the race or fit the description that most terrorists do, then you should just accept racial profiling. To quote him:

"Look. if you come from suspect areas, have certain backgrounds, even have certain names, ages, male vs female, should all factor into the likely hood of extra attention when boarding a plane.

As far as body scans being an invasion of privacy, get over it if you want to fly. If violates your religion then you are a religious fanatic, that’s the one group I don’t want on a flight with me. Only one person sees the image, its immediately erased, and I doubt they even know who they are looking at."

You can read the whole thing here, it's quite brief: http://www.cardplayer.com/poker-blogs/34-lee-watkinson/entries/7185-pofiling-in-poker-vs-airline-security

To refute him I yet again I find myself falling back on the writings of Malcolm Gladwell. In an article he published on February 6th, 2006 Gladwell investigated the effectiveness and efficiency of racial profiling:

"...Figuring out what an Islamic terrorist looks like isn't any easier. Muslims are not like the Amish: they don't come dressed in identifiable costumes. And they don't look like basketball players; they don't come in predictable shapes and sizes. Islam is a relgion that spans the globe."

He goes on to quote New York City police commissioner Raymond Kelly:

"We have a policy against racial profiling...I put it in here in March of the first year I was here. If you look at the London bombings, you have three British cizens of Pakistani descent. You have Germaine Lindsay, who is Jamaican. You have the next crew, on July 21, who are East African. You have a Chechen woman in Moscow in early 2004 who blows herself up in the subway station. So whom do you profile? Look at New York City. Forty percent of New Yorkers are born outside the country. Look at the diversity there. Who am I supposed to profile?...You think that terrorists aren't aware of how easy it is to be characterized by ethnicity? Look at the 9/11 hijackers. They came here. They shaved. They went to topless bars. They wanted to blend in. They wanted to look like they were part of the American dream. These are not dumb people. Could a terrorist dress up as a Hasidic Jew and walk into the subway, and not be profiled? Yes. I think profiling is just nuts."

Poker translation: terrorists are smart enough to balance their ranges. We're talking about guys who are able to coordinate acts of enormous complexity and logistical difficulty; they can figure out people are suspicious of the highly Muslim looking. It's a dangerous thing to underestimate your opponent.

On top of everything, encouraging racial profiling results in greater acceptance of being suspicious and judgmental of people based on appearance. I'm not down with that shit, and besides, you never know when the polite gentleman in a suit in tie is actually a sex crazed, pot head, professional gambler.

I've turned into a poker geek again. For a long time my focus just wasn't on the game, but lately I've been playing six days a week again and really getting back into concentrating on improving my game. I'm posting regularly in HSMTT again and watching tournament training videos to get a sense of what other guys are doing. I've had a few interesting hands over the last few days so we'll throw those up here and talk strategy for a bit. I'll be copy pasting hands I posted at 2+2 and including reasoning on my thought process as well as input from other posters:

Hand 1: Full Tilt $500 sat. I haven't been too active and haven't played any meaningful pots against the villain. Nothing about his play or our dynamic would suggest something crazy is going on here. Thoughts:


Full Tilt Poker Aussie Millions Qualifier No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t25/t50 Blinds - 8 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

UTG+1: t5352 M = 71.36
MP1: t6645 M = 88.60
MP2: t6035 M = 80.47
CO: t3215 M = 42.87
Hero (BTN): t4940 M = 65.87
SB: t6178 M = 82.37
BB: t4880 M = 65.07
UTG: t4155 M = 55.40

Pre Flop: (t75) Hero is BTN with K Q
5 folds, Hero raises to t150, 1 fold, BB calls t100

Flop: (t325) 3 K K (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t200, BB calls t200

Turn: (t725) 2 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t500, BB calls t500

River: (t1725) 6 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t1175, BB raises to t4030 all in, Hero...

Preflop, flop, turn, and the river bet are all clearly very standard. The river check-shove is a difficult spot. The villain is almost never bluffing (occasionally people will show up with something insane here, but it's very, very unlikely) so the big question is how many hands are in his value shoving range that we beat vs hands that beat us.

The majority of the responses in the thread agreed that you need to call, and the most thorough advice came from my ex-coach NoahSD:
"You lose to like 6 weighted combos (3 of 66 and 3 for the other random boats he shows up with occasionally).

There are probably like 10ish Kx that we beat in his preflop range and he prob plays them this way like 25% of the time for 2.5 combos. Then there's like 1 weighted combo that we chop with. Then there's like 1 combos of him just being a total clueless spewtard with like A-high or 77 or 72 or something.

So that's 6 you lose, 3.5 you beat, and 1 you chop with, so equity of a call is (3.5*6870 - 6*2795 + 2037.5)/10.5 = 886.9"

Hand 2: Full Tilt $100 single rebuy add-on. Haven't played any big pots with villain. I haven't been doing any out of line 3 betting that would make me think his range is anything outside of the usual monsters here.

You giving up on turn or calling and evaluating on river?

Full Tilt Poker $33,000 Guarantee (1r+1a) No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t100/t200 Blinds - 8 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BTN: t12830 M = 42.77
SB: t20824 M = 69.41
BB: t5495 M = 18.32
UTG: t6415 M = 21.38
UTG+1: t3892 M = 12.97
MP1: t6261 M = 20.87
Hero (MP2): t10681 M = 35.60
CO: t7277 M = 24.26

Pre Flop: (t300) Hero is MP2 with Q Q
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to t575, 1 fold, Hero raises to t1625, 2 folds, SB calls t1525, 1 fold, UTG+1 requests TIME, UTG+1 calls t1050

Flop: (t5075) K 8 T (3 players)
SB bets t800, UTG+1 requests TIME, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls t800

Turn: (t6675) 7 (2 players)
SB bets t1600, Hero...

The flat call from the SB pre is extremely scary. Against anyone who is competent that is pretty much always a massive hand they are getting cute with (if you are the villain in this hand, and we're both aware the other is a reg, then a 4 bet is mandatory with any big hand because it's a more disguised range than flatting.)

His post flop betting indicates either a very strong hand that is trying to draw me in (like oh say, top set?) or a mid strength hand that is now just trying to get to showdown cheaply (JJ.) Almost everyone who weighed in said to either fold turn, or min raise the flop and give up if villain put any more chips in after that. I know that if we get to turn this way I like folding, but I'm not quite sure on the min raise idea, though I know that I don't hate it and I could see it's possible effectiveness, especially given how cheap it is here in relation to the pot.

Hand 3: Full Tilt $100 single rebuy add-on. Just started up for the day. No relevant history with the villain, he hasn't been spazzing all over the place or anything and I've been in line through the early stages.

His line confuses the hell out of me. His value range should basically be 44/JT (or maybe an ultra slowplayed AA.) Although he has a super small value range, his bluff range seems just as small. What gets to river this way that takes a bluff shot?

Full Tilt Poker $33,000 Guarantee (1r+1a) No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t15/t30 Blinds - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Hero (MP2): t4000 M = 88.89
CO: t2015 M = 44.78
BTN: t4505 M = 100.11
SB: t3940 M = 87.56
BB: t3446 M = 76.58
UTG: t4659 M = 103.53
UTG+1: t3570 M = 79.33
UTG+2: t2000 M = 44.44
MP1: t3865 M = 85.89

Pre Flop: (t45) Hero is MP2 with T K
2 folds, UTG+2 calls t30, 1 fold, Hero raises to t120, 4 folds, UTG+2 calls t90

Flop: (t285) 3 T 4 (2 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets t200, UTG+2 calls t200

Turn: (t685) 3 (2 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets t440, UTG+2 calls t440

River: (t1565) J (2 players)
UTG+2 bets t1240 all in, Hero requests TIME, Hero...

Conversation on the hand focused around two aspects; whether we should be calling river and whether we should be betting turn. When some regulars such as Mement_Mori and NHFunkii suggested checking back the turn I posted the following to address the subject:

"FWIW boys I think you get more value at HSMTT by going bet/bet/check whereas midstakes it should be bet/check/bet because for some reason at midstakes NOBODY believes that meanwhile in HSMTT guys peel mid pairs for two straight streets more since peoples double barreling range is wider.

Had he checked river, I'd be pretty damn tempted to value bet too, but I might not have the image for that. Thoughts?"

Posters Apestyles, Luckychewy, and Billy Bibbit came to say they agree that we should be betting turn in this spot.

Meanwhile, the river spot had people almost totally split. I think this is one of those spots where having a sense of what kind of player you're up against becomes extremely important. If you're against a fairly straight forward TAG, then this is a pretty easy fold. If you're against a pretty creative or bluff spewy LAG, then it's a pretty easy call. But when you're in a vacuum and have no information on the guy at all it gets really tough. I guess I don't hate folding because tournament players are rarely that creative early in the tournament, but given how small his value range is I would never mind a call.

Hand 4: Full Tilt nightly $150. A continuation in our series of facing full potish bets on the river. I've seen villain around before, I feel like he's a reg but not a super well known one or anything.

Not a ton of draws out, but enough that I'm curious as to whether that changes your guys thought process facing bets like these. My guess is that it won't.

Full Tilt Poker $75,000 Guarantee No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t120/t240 Blinds + t25 - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Hero (BTN): t6795 M = 11.62
SB: t2465 M = 4.21
BB: t10355 M = 17.70
UTG: t5125 M = 8.76
UTG+1: t6859 M = 11.72
UTG+2: t7001 M = 11.97
MP1: t6254 M = 10.69
MP2: t3771 M = 6.45
CO: t11698 M = 20.00

Pre Flop: (t585) Hero is BTN with A 5
6 folds, Hero raises to t600, 1 fold, BB calls t360

Flop: (t1545) 4 A 7 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t920, BB calls t920

Turn: (t3385) Q (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: (t3385) 9 (2 players)
BB bets t3120, Hero...

First and foremost, when I look at this hand the turn seems like a bet. Many posters brought that up and given the draw heavy texture and the fact that he just might peel two streets with pairs worse than aces makes it a pretty clear bet. Some still said they like checking the turn so they could snap any river bet, but I'm pretty sure betting is likely better since we're very rarely getting checkraised off our hand by a worse one.

Again, thoughts on the river were pretty split, though most people seemed to prefer a call. A few mentioned that the bet sizing is scary enough but GeoffRas22 provided some thoughts on why he prefers calling:
"yea not betting the turn is not good- what exactly is your reasoning for checking? i see a lot of ppl think its "best" to check back and call river or bet river if checked to, but so many more worse hands are calling the turn, ur just getting 2 streets so much more of the time- especially if ur not even sure a call is best on this river (granted his sizing is pretty scary)

as played i call as i dont think randos bet this size with 1 pairs and i cant see him not c/r flop with sets/2 pairs"

Thanks to everyone who shared their insight on these hands.

Before my trip I threw a birthday party in my apartment for my friend Lachie. At our high point we had perhaps 40 or 50 people in the place and everyone had a blast. We decided to make it a semi regular thing, and leading up to Christmas we decided that the weekend before the holidays we'd have our bash. I got my friend Tim involved and we set things in motion; Lachie would sort the DJ's and equipment, Tim did the promotion, and I stocked up on booze plus hired two models to work behind the bar for the party.

Lachie invited friends from his music scene, I invited a small amount of guys from poker, and both Tim and I got onto friends in our local pick up community and let them know what was going down. There was only one rule for the pick up boys; they must bring a girl or show up in a group with an equal or above girl to guy ratio. We set our party for Saturday the 19th from 9pm to 4am and got the word out.

The night of the party the boys rocked up early and helped set **** up. The models got there early too so I oriented them with the apartment and what their jobs would be. We had considered setting one of them outside the door, but we quickly realized we would need both to work the bar. We strung up decorations around the flat and then I went upstairs to put signs on the doors to the bedrooms. The apartment is three bedrooms but Jarred and I are the only ones living here, so the middle bedroom was decided as the "designated sex room". I put a "NO ENTRY" sign on our rooms, and then a different sign on the middle room:



I also placed a few condoms in the top drawer on the side of the bed, because being thoughtful is how I roll.

Lachie had lined up a number of DJ's to play for us, and Tim got on the tracks as well. I decided that although I would drink over the course of the night, I'd make sure not to get totally smashed so I could stay in control of my own apartment. After that we just let the people roll in and the mayhem ensue. I ran around the party for the first three hours greeting people, making introductions, and checking the noise level outside the apartment.














Our bartenders.








A very discrete photographer.







At our high point we must have had 75-100 people in there. Not many pictures reflect that, but this one will give you a sense for it:









The man himself and our photographer for the evening, Damo.


Tim gets cozy with one of the models.






Lachie takes a moment off from party running duties.











A little after midnight Lachie and Tim told me that they would take over the managing duties for a while so I could knock off and enjoy myself. I grabbed another beer and made my way around the party for some banter. I either knew most of the people I ran into or they came up to introduce themselves, but I'd seen one hot, tall girl in a white dress hanging around that I had no clue about. While chatting to my friend Martin I noticed her sitting over on the stairs by herself looking bored. Given the situation of the party I went up and said the most obvious thing that occurred "Hi, I don't think we've met."
"Oh hi, I'm XXXXXX."
"Nice to meet you, how'd you hear about the party?"
"Oh I came with my friend Liam."
"Ah okay cool."
"I actually know who you are though. I've read your blog. I like what you wrote about pick up."
"Thanks! Wait...what?"

"Yea, I've read the game and known about that stuff for a few months now."
"Aweeeeeeeeeeeeesome!"

We hung out chatting on the stairs for a few minutes before I suggested we go outside where it wasn't so loud. We continued talking mostly about pick up; how most guys treat women, what it's like for her knowing about it on a girls side, how the sexual double standard for men and women is incredibly retarded, how she doesn't give a **** about what anyone thinks of her, how epic I think it is that she knows all this stuff. Perhaps five to ten minutes into our chat she looked me in the eyes and said "It's kind of loud out here, do you have anywhere more private we could chat?"
"Yep."
"Lead the way."

I took her hand and walked her through the party, desperately attempting to avoid eye contact with anyone who might stop me to chat. When we got upstairs we found several people waiting outside for the bathroom in the hall and a couple girls in my room looking to grab things from their purse's (as I'd turned my room into storage for the night.) Seconds later Lachie came up the stairs and told me that security was at the door and needed to talk to me. I was not pleased.

I went downstairs and spoke to security remarkably politely for how bad they had just ****-blocked me. He said there had been a noise complaint and that we'd have to turn the music off. I apologized for the disruption and told him I'd take care of it. I went back inside and told the DJ that we had to cut the music or I risked eviction, prompting him to ask if he could finish his set. They are a proud bunch those DJ's. I told him that wasn't possible, then jumped on the table and started yelling at everyone that we were going to have to shut the music down but the party could go on. Additionally I had surprise for them, that we had arranged a burlesque show! Tim's ex-girlfriend Anita set up a little space and got to work on her show, which I watched briefly before returning upstairs in search of XXXXXX. I found her with a group outside my door, and made a few seconds of banter before I said "Want to see my balcony?" We stepped inside my room. "Smooth" she teased me. "Well all smooth lines aside I actually wouldn't mind going out on the balcony and hanging out for a bit, you seem really interesting." I wasn't bull****ting or anything; I never get to talk to girls who know about pick up before meeting me and I found the whole thing fascinating. We talked for a bit but eventually the tension became a bit too much so I leaned in and started kissing her. A moment later we were inside on the bed, furiously making out and losing clothing. We had just gotten down to our underwear when a girl from outside my room called in begging for her purse. I looked at XXXXXX quizzically; "It's cool" she told me. "Yea! Okay!" I called out. The girl came in apologizing profusely while I stood there in my underwear and XXXXXX lay on the bed in hers. She hustled out and I returned to bed as quickly as possible. Thank God I didn't get too drunk.

We had sex for quite some time. When it was done I got up and my legs were so blown out that I accidentally stumbled and smashed over the wine bottle she'd brought upstairs, soaking my floor in red wine. After I cleaned it up we lay in bed for a moment. "Man I want to see Avatar" I remarked.
"Oh my God I know! I can't wait for that!"
"Sick! Let's go, let's go to Avatar right now!"
"It's like 2am or something."
"****ing details! Well I wish we could just like, fall asleep right this second, wake up instantly, and go to Avatar. Stoned of course."
"Oh absolutely, you have to see it stoned. Do you have some here?"
"Naturally. Want to smoke?"
"Yep."
"I'll go get it."

I went downstairs and found perhaps a couple dozen people left at the party. I was ambushed left and right by drunks while I scrounged about for my weed, simultaneously attempting to make chat that didn't seem overly rushed and rude yet get back to the naked girl longing for pot in my bed. When I returned upstairs I ground up some weed and rolled a joint. We stood by the door to the balcony smoking it and I sized her up for a moment. "How tall are you?"
"About six-two."
"Whoa seriously? Hold on stand next to me for a moment in front of the mirror." We did and I realized she was roughly an inch taller than me, just as she'd said.
"Damn, you're the first girl I've ever slept with that's taller than me."

The remainder of the evening was spent lying in bed talking about this and that, being interrupted by girls begging for their purses who got them given back by me in my underwear, and smoking another joint while discussing how excited we were for Avatar. We fell asleep with me joking about how she was tall enough to be the big spoon. She left sometime early in the morning; I can barely remember.

In the morning I came downstairs to a thoroughly ruined apartment. I called the cleaning guy. With an apartment too trashed to play poker in and a beautiful day outside I decided there was only one responsible thing to do; go out and chat up girls during the day.

Note: I messaged XXXXXX about writing this blog entry and whether she wanted anything left out to which she replied "Haha full name and address? (I don't know either) Nothing particular dude, write away."

I can still remember the first time I played poker with my friends. It was just a little over seven years ago, and I was recently 18. We were at a friends house watching a Monday night football game playing five card draw for what I believe was a 10 dollar buy in, though it might have been five. I know for certain that I lost 20 dollars.

At that point in my life I was strongly considering a stint in the military; I wanted to be a marine. My parents were terrified at the idea, but I had already met with the recruiter twice and was keen to sign the papers. My interest in gambling began in sports betting, and I would run around during class with a sheet with all the games betting lines, offering it to whoever might want action. I had a job I hated at Damon's restaurant, an obsession with bodybuilding, and not much else going for me. I was an average student with no concrete ambitions, awkward with women to the degree of uselessness, and lacking any legitimate talent outside of the motivation to be a huge meat-head. But then I found poker.

I knew it was what I wanted for my life near instantly. I would sit and watch every second of the WPT or WSOP broadcasts and could rattle off hand after hand from each episode. I thought the pros I watched were amazing and I'd have arguments with friends about who was the best. I was a full blown fan-boy. I started playing at every opportunity, and read any book I could get my hands on. I lost all interest in military enlistment. When I told people this was what I wanted for a career they shook their heads and asked if I had a gambling problem. At the time I didn't have words like "equity" or "variance" to explain myself, all I knew was that the game seemed to be the only place I could actually focus my mental energy.

It went on that way for years. In college I'd sit in the back of class with my laptop open, watching the afternoon $100 rebuys on Stars and wishing I too could be playing. Eventually I found out the campus had wireless internet and classes were spent playing instead of watching. I was surrounded by theater students killing themselves trying to get a leg up or land the big part and I couldn't possibly have cared less. When one of my professors told me I should audition for his elite acting program I thought he might have a seizure when I replied with "Ah thanks, but that would be too big a time commitment away from poker."

The game has a quick ostracizing affect. I began falling away from my friends, electing to stay in and play tournaments instead of go get drunk many weekends. By the time I moved to Australia and found myself in a long term relationship I realized I didn't have a single friend outside of the poker world. It stayed that way for over three years. Unless you're careful and proactive to prevent it, the game will separate and isolate you from regular society. You live on different hours and think in different ways. You have to watch the way you talk; not in the risk of vulgarity but that you might be accidentally rude. Poker players talk about money like a tool (which it is for us) and wind up forgetting that we bluntly discuss hands that involve most peoples weekly pay check like they are nothing. It's not unusual for the bulk of a persons social circle to be made up of people from their industry, but in ours it comes with so many consequences. It's an industry rife with liars, cheats, and scumbags, not to mention a guy to girl ratio that makes the military look like the Playboy mansion. I am not complaining though, because this world is what I am now. There's no going back to the real world when a simple Google search will turn up videos of you drunkenly lighting yourself on fire or stories about the time you let that girl stab you during sex. And I wouldn't have it any other way.

The only thing that concerns me is poker's longevity. There are many good signs about the industry; new markets taking off, the WSOP ratings going up in key demographics, growth on most major online networks, the continuing giant fields every summer in Vegas. However, this is an industry that cannibalizes itself, where once money reaches certain hands it's no longer in circulation. It wouldn't shock me if the game remained profitable throughout my lifetime, but it also wouldn't shock me if it became far less lucrative in the next few years. It's why day after day, week after week, for the whole year, you'll find me billion tabling the day away and posting on the strategy forums by night. Seven years ago failure would have sucked, but it would have been easily redeemable. Today it is out of the question.

See you on the tables.