
April 13th, Honolulu: I awake at slightly past 10am, groggy and less than perfectly rested for the long day of tournaments that I’m about to engage in. I grab a quick shower, dry off, and get dressed in loose fitting clothing then go upstairs and turn on the computer in the living room. The SCOOP main event starts at 10:30am, and Timex has sent me a message that he’s okay with the idea of my playing in the $10,000 one after we discussed the possibility of it last night. However, I don’t feel particularly well rested enough to play in a tournament where every hand, street, and decision will be against a thinking player, so I opt to pass on the event.
At the height of my day I have roughly 16 tables going, attempting to balance them all on a single screen which I believe to be 26 inches, though it has a high resolution which means it can fit 12 minimized tables with almost zero overlap. The day is overall fairly uninteresting, and I bomb out of both SCOOP main events I do play in fairly early in more or less standard ways. I stop registering at the Stars $20r and $200r, and by the end of my day have only gone deep in a few. I wind up winning the $33 rebuys six max tournament on Stars for just over $4000, meaning I still likely lost a couple thousand on the day, but that’s pretty good for a Sunday.
After I finish playing we go to attend Easter dinner at Cade’s grandmother’s house. I’ve been there three times and she and the family are always the most gracious hosts. During the meal she and the family love to talk about real estate and investments, something I’ve had a few discussions about lately, which allows me to lead into a few thoughts on the subject.
Allow me to begin by saying I have very little knowledge and experience when it comes to investing, the markets, or the greater money movement game within the economy. However, my reaction upon hearing that an enormous sum of people got massively fucked by people they’d trusted to make good decisions with their money was something like “Well duh.” Poker serves as a nice microcosm for the greater market, and at their very core the game of poker and game of investing are exactly the same, you are moving money in an attempt to create +EV situations. When an inexperienced player sits down at the table the professional players inevitably have the edge because they have years and thousands of hands more of experience and expertise. When a casual investor decides to invest in the market, I question how he can expect to possibly find a reasonable edge playing against the professionals of that industry. At least in poker everyone’s control of the variance is equal, but in investing those with enormous asset control are able to create or manipulate action in their favor (Hi Jim Cramer!) in some scenarios, making the playing ground even more off center.
I sure as hell don’t trust any “experts” or advisors within the investing industry after my years spent in poker. How the fuck would I be able to tell if he actually knows what he’s talking about? I have no point of reference or the skill to be able to tell if he’s got a clue or not, and there’s nobody there I can trust to give me a straight answer because any advisor is inevitably trying to make money, even if our relationship is supposed to be a symbiotic one (yes I understand that many advisors are honest and excellent at what they do.) Within five minutes of speaking poker with someone I can extremely accurately gauge their skill at the game (unless they are purposely being deceptive) and I would imagine those high up in the investing world could do exactly the same. How would I ever know a potential advisor was actually looking out for my best interests and not his own bottom line when he’s the one with all the knowledge and experience? I find it very unlikely that through personal research I could ever get on the level that professionals would have without enormous time commitment, and so I refuse to participate in a game where I am incapable of guaranteeing my long term edge.
Any time you decide to invest your money in anything you need to think through every fucking angle. Investigate thoroughly and ask the hard questions. A friend of mine recently told me he’d been asked to invest in a movie, and asked if I wanted any part of that. I had no interest, and before hearing much told him he shouldn’t have any either, but told him to elaborate anyway. He said a guy he knew was high up in the film industry and looking for investments in a project film. I peppered him with questions:
1. Is he a friend, an acquaintance, or just a guy?
2. If this project is any good, why is he having difficulty finding investors, particularly since he would have run it by God knows how many people in the industry before hand?
3. Why is someone in the film industry asking a professional poker player for investments, particularly since the majority of the real world perceives us as illegitimate gamblers?
4. With no experience in the film industry, how could you possibly tell if the project is any good or potentially profitable?
5. Have you researched what percentage of films make a profit, and what the turnaround time to see it would be?
6. Would the books and accounting of the film be available to you, so you could see where your money is going?
7. Who the fuck is this guy again?
But maybe I’m just a paranoid nit. All I know is I aim to keep enough money in separate, federally insured bank accounts (federal government insures up to $100,000 per account, or two at the same bank) that things could never go that wrong for me and keep eyes in the back of my head when it comes to anyone who approaches me about money for fucking anything.