I made my way over to the Huslter last night for the 7pm tournament. Hadn't played any poker for a few weeks so when StrayBullet mentioned that he would be in town and was game for meeting at the Hustler, I was in. I showed up a few hours early and took a seat at the $5/10 NL table. Actually, they didn't have a seat initially so i played a little 2/5 for about 30 minutes. The buy-in there was $300 and I ran that up to about $500 when my seat opened at the 5/10 table. I bought in for another 300. My stacked only moved a bit in the time I spent there. It was about 6:50 and I was about to cash in my chips so that I could take my seat for the 7pm tournament when this LAST hand came up.

I'm in LP with A K and there is one limper to me. I make it $35. One blind comes in and the limper completed. The flop comes K J 8 . Checked to me and I make it $110. The blind folds and the limper calls.

The turn is the Q. It's limped to me again. This guy had only been playing for about 20 minutes but I did see him calling a few hands and showing down top pair, weak kicker type holdings, so I felt a weak K was in his range. I also felt that if he had trips, two pair or just hit the straight I would find out right now. So I bet $200 and he called pretty quickly which made me think that he was on the flush draw.

The river was an offsuit A. So now I have two pair, but a T completes the straight. Within just a few seconds he pushes in all of his chips and he has me covered. I have just over $500 left. So I have invested 350ish in the pot so far and there is about 1200 in the pot in total.

Could he have had a broken flush draw with the T ? How about a hand like KT? As i said before, I really don't see him having a set here given the flush draw on board he would have had to raise.

As for reads, I did see him showing down some suspect holdings, but haven't seen him make any big bluffs. He did look like the kind of player who was capable of it, but that was just a gut feeling, no specifics to rely on.

What would you do and why? Results to follow.

lakeoffire says

Q10.J10,K10. He could have limped with any of those hands. I would fold. If i had seen him try something similar, maybe i call but without a better read I would be forced to stack him later. Although, the push seems suspect unless he thought he had a read on you. Just some thoughts.
LOF

04/17/07

EdmondDantes says

$110 the pot on the flop and you pot it. Pre-flop limp/caller just calls your flop bet. I'd be thinking, a set of badly played 8s (that's a pretty draw heavy board), spade or weak straight draw, KQ, KJ or KT. In this game, most guys are pretty aggressive with their TPGK, monster draws and other good hands on that draw heavy board and more passive with their weak straight and flush draws. T9o is a possibility. The fact that he doesn't raise you suggests to me either Ax spades, QT, JT or T9. $330 in the pot now.

Checked to you on the turn and you bet $200. He calls again. At this point, I discount sets, two pair holdings and think he's got either the made straight, a pair with a straight or flush draw but not a big one. If he had a set or turned two pair or a straight/flush draw, I think a lot of guys in this game would just shove here. $730 in the pot.

River A but not a spade and he pushes, making it $1200+ in the pot, $500 to you to call. A little more than 2:1. He could have a busted flush draw, but that's an aggressive play on that ugly board from a guy who's played the hand passively throughout. If he had the straight, though, why the big bet here? If it were more disguised, I could see the shove, but it's brutally obvious to you that there's the real possibility of a straight here. Is he just trying to look desperate? Maybe, but over 30% of the time?

Set of 8s, lower two pair, pair with busted draw, all check to you on the river, I think. A bluff shoves--you'll likely call a smaller bet. The straight bets 1/2 the pot or more but maybe shoves.

Without any better reads on the villain, I fold here; there's a lot of hands he could've played this way--KT, QT, JT, T9, set of 8s (mangled), busted spade draw. Of the bunch, you only want to see the busted draw, obv. That said, I were getting somewhat better odds (3 to 1 or so), I call this river expecting to see a bluff enough times for it to be slightly profitable.

I ran it out in the EV calculator, it's about breakeven if you figure he's bluffing 30% of the time. Without a better read, I pitch the hand and head into the tournament in a good mood.

TwoRags.com EValuator Tool Scenario (change hand ranges)

Your Hand: Ad Kc
Board: Ks Jh 8s Qd Ah
Pot: $1200
Call: $500
Pot Odds: 2.4 to 1

Hand Range Probability Win%
1: Js Ts 10%
2: Ts 9h 40%
3: 8c 8d 10%
4: As 5s 30% 100%
5: Qh Tc 10%

SUMMARY RESULTS

Win Probability for this Scenario: 30%
Less: Break-even win% needed: (29%)
Positive Variance: 1%

Total Expectation: $510
Less: Amount of Call: ($500)
Positive Expectation: $10

Edmond

04/17/07

lakong says

My thinking at the time was that he either had a T or was bluffing. I just don't see him having any other hand that could beat me with that kind of bet. Now the question is could as you pointed out, could he be bluffing at least 30% of the time?

I was playing a bit aggressive, but not too aggressive. On this hand, I was clearly very strong from the start and very confident. It was pretty clear that I had a made hand and AK should have been a good candidate, probably the worst possible hand I could have. A set of K's, Q's or J's were also very likely. So my thinking here was that most players in my shoes would not be capable of laying down a hand that at the low end of the range would be top two pair, and this guy had to know that I was unlikely to lay down the hand so therefore he probably wanted a call.

As you pointed out, Ed, I was also thinking that a busted flush draw with a Ts was very possible as was a hand like KT or even QT. The last point, which perhaps shouldn't have been a consideration was the fact that if I folded I'm only down about $75 which is no biggie, but do I really want to get stacked here heading in the tournament. The one thing that kept me thinking for a while was this... would he really push if he had the T? I decided he would because he must think that I would call here.

I thought for a while and folded. He turns over 64s. Oh, boy. I really wasn't too pissed about it, but I was curious what others would do in my shoes.

04/17/07

Adanthar says

This is actually a fairly easy call with this kind of read once you get to the river this way live. The reason is that you basically have the second nuts; since he never shoves a set, this is a bluff or a ten. In addition, most people have to at least think a little while before they do anything with *any* hand on this river. So what it looks like is the 'strong means weak' tell, and you're getting great odds to snap it off.

However, this is a spot where you should frequently be checking the turn. You have outs if you're behind, but you can't call a CR, and this card hit a bunch of his limp/calling range. In addition, if he has Kx, he will frequently fold to a big bet on the turn, but will pay off on the river if you check. (That said, I probably bet at least half the time.)

04/17/07

lakong says

Well it wasn't easy for me. I wish I had you there on my shoulder, Adanthar <G>. Thanks for the reply. Yeah, I probably didn't spend enough time trying to find any physical tells or clear-cut action type tells like 'strong is weak'. I mainly thought about the action in the hand and the likelihood of him trying to bluff me given how strong I was in the hand and the fact that it would seem to me that he missed. You live and learn I guess...

04/18/07

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